The fifth in two years... This is how religious people control Israel's future in today's Knesset elections

Occupied Jerusalem -

Today, Tuesday, Israel will witness the Knesset elections for the fifth time in two years, amid an expected disparity in voter turnout, both among Jews and the Palestinians of 48 (Israeli citizenship has been imposed on them since the Nakba), or among Jews themselves, especially religious and secular people.

This disparity is reflected in the participation of the various Israeli segments, the political transformations, and the intensification of the conflict over Israel's character and future as a "Jewish democratic" state - as it calls itself - or a "Jewish religious".

According to the voter registry issued by the Israeli Central Elections Committee, the number of total suffrage holders (Jews and Arabs) is 6,790,000, of whom 5,690,000 are Jews (10% of whom remain outside the country and do not participate in voting), while the number of voters is Of the Palestinians, 48 ​​million and 100 thousand have the right to vote.

Opinion polling institutes expect that the voter turnout in the 25th Knesset elections today will reach between 70% and 72% among Jews.

Although it is difficult to predict the voter turnout among the 48 Palestinians due to the fragmentation and division of the Arab parties participating in the elections, expectations range from 45% to 50%, noting that past experiences have shown that it is difficult to determine the exact voter turnout among Arabs except on election day.

In the elections for the 24th Knesset, which were held in March 2021, the general voter turnout amounted to about 68%, as it achieved 75% among the Jews, and stopped at the 44% barrier among the Palestinians of 48.

Official statistics record an outperformance in the turnout of ultra-Orthodox Jews in the elections, compared to a lower percentage of secularists (Al-Jazeera)

Secular and religious

The official statistics of the Israeli Elections Committee regarding the percentage of vote among Jews themselves in the previous Knesset elections showed that the secular turnout amounted to 65%, while among the religious Jews (Haredi) it reached 92%, and in the ranks of the “new religious Zionism” movement and the most extremist settlers reached 88%. .

The disparity in voting rates among the Jews themselves, in particular, contributes to changing the balance of power between the conflicting political camps in the elections, which has strengthened the progress of the right-wing camp and the far-right movement.

The Israeli political analyst Akiva Eldar attributes the turnout of the right and the hardliners to the vote to the noticeable decline of the class that was the dominant and founder of the state and was considered among Western Jews (of European origin), especially in terms of its population.

The sons of this class belong to the secular trend and support the separation of religion from the state, and they constitute the camp of the center (the center) and the Zionist left.

On the other hand, Israeli society is witnessing a continuous rise in the middle-class population of Mizrahi Jews and adherents of "religious Zionism" who belong to the right-wing camp.

In addition to the discrepancy in their numbers, Eldar indicates - to Al Jazeera Net - that a conflict is emerging over Israel's character, identity and future in light of the confrontation with the Palestinians, between the traditional elites of Western Jews (Ashkenazi), the vast majority of whom are secular, and between Eastern Jews (Sephardic) belonging to the religious trend. Settlers, all of whom are religious or conservative.

The analyst explains that the secular segments are maneuvering and making some concessions in the "Palestinian file" in order to integrate into the global economy and ensure the support of the global system for them and the preservation of the leadership of Israeli society, which is rejected by the religious segments and Eastern Jews who insist on the Jewish and biblical character of the state.

lower turnout

For his part, the researcher in Israeli affairs, Bilal Zaher, reviewed the patterns of Jewish participation and voting in the Knesset elections, noting that the percentage of voting varies and varies between social and religious strata, and it is an ongoing phenomenon among the various camps and political currents, both among the religious, secular and the settler segment, and also among Jews of origin. European and Western and among the Jews coming from the countries of the East.

And Zahir - in his speech to Al Jazeera Net - explained that the voter turnout in the 25th Knesset elections among the Jews will be lower than the general average recorded in the past decade and amounted to 77%;

It is expected that it will not exceed 70%, and among the Arabs it is not expected to exceed 50%, knowing that their voter rate in the past decade reached 65%, according to various opinion polls and statistics of the Knesset Research Center.

Attention is directed, according to Zahir, "to the Arab community and the expected participation rate, which may range from 45% to 50%, which means a decline in Arab representation in the Knesset, and the possibility that two out of the three Arab parties will not be able to exceed the threshold."

He attributed the decline in participation in the elections and the reluctance to vote among the Arabs to the disintegration of the Joint List, and the lack of confidence in “Israeli democracy” and the Knesset institution, in addition to the repetition of parliamentary elections, which also contributed to the decline in participation among Jews who also lost confidence in the political establishment and parties and their ability. To face social and economic challenges, the cost of living, and even security issues.

About 60% of the Israelis express confidence in the results of the upcoming elections, compared to 40% who doubt them and expect them to be rigged (Al-Jazeera)

Variation of confidence in elections

This was reinforced by the results of the monthly poll entitled "The Israeli Voice Index" conducted by Professor Tamar Hermann and Dr. Or Inbari of the "Israeli Democracy Institute", in the month of October.

For the first time, the institute addressed in its poll the extent to which the Israeli public trusts the election results and whether there will be fraud, as the results showed that 40% of the public do not trust the results and their validity, and believe that the results that will be cursed will not reflect voting in the polls, with their suspicions that the elections are being rigged. On the other hand, 60% expressed confidence in the election results.

The divergence of positions and opinions of segments of the Israeli public extends to the general political situation, especially the security escalation in the Palestinian territories occupied in 1967;

62% of the Jews expect the outbreak of a third Palestinian intifada if a solution to the "Israeli-Palestinian conflict" is not reached, while 38% ruled out that.

While support for the vision of the two-state solution is declining in all parts of the Middle East, the Jewish political parties, as 69% of the respondents expressed their opposition to the two-state solution, compared to 31% who expressed their support.