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US economy recorded positive growth in the third quarter for the first time this year.

The growth rate also exceeded the market's expectations, but the market is in an atmosphere that it is the base effect of the previous quarter, which recorded negative growth, and we should not be fooled by the numbers.

Rather, concerns are growing that a recession will come next year.



Correspondent Kim Jong-won from New York reports.



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The US economy grew by 2.6% in the third quarter, that is, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.



This is the first positive growth of the year, and it is a good result, exceeding the forecast of 2.3% by experts.



In particular, the US economy, which retreated for the first and second quarters in a row, came out of the so-called 'technical recession', which refers to negative negative growth for two consecutive quarters.



The reason the US economy turned to positive growth in the third quarter is analyzed because domestic consumption, which accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, is still strong, and the large trade deficit, which was the main culprit of negative growth in the last quarter, improved significantly this quarter.



With the midterm elections just around the corner, President Biden made a statement on the long-awaited good report card, calling it a sign that America's economic recovery is continuing.



However, experts are voicing concerns that a recession will come next year.



[Ken Rogoff/Professor of Economics, Harvard University: Because inflation is still high, the probability that the US economy will fall into recession next year is very high.]



Given that inflation is still a serious situation and GDP growth is a lagging indicator of


the economy, the dominant analysis is that the economic situation will worsen next year as employment cuts by companies due to high interest rates are reflected in the growth rate next year.



[Alex Pele / Economist at Mizuho Securities: I think the probability of a recession in 2023 is high.

The Federal Reserve will cool the currently overheated labor market to catch inflation (which will make businesses reluctant to hire them)]



Any time the trade deficit grows again, negative growth will occur, especially as a strong dollar makes it difficult for U.S. exports. There are fears that it may come back.