If Europe wants to realize its power battery ambition, why can't it bypass China?
【Produced by Shentong Studio】
Written by: Li Shan, our correspondent in Germany, Planning: He Yifang, Linlin
The China-Europe battery industry is forming a new bond, where capital, technology and market are intertwined and deeply integrated.
The strengthening of mutually beneficial cooperation between Chinese and European enterprises will help both sides to give full play to their respective advantages and take the initiative in the global new energy vehicle market.
Until 2021, the batteries for EVs produced in Europe will largely come from abroad.
Europe has to face the fact that Asian companies dominate the global battery market.
As Chinese battery companies appear in front of global users with a leading image, Europe has stepped up efforts to support local battery manufacturers, and the cooperation and competition between the two parties in the battery market are deeply intertwined.
Strengthening mutually beneficial cooperation may be the right way for China and the EU to jointly tackle climate change and energy crisis.
Why did Europe abandon the road to local production of batteries before?
Why do we need to rearrange the relevant industrial chain?
What are the difficulties in realizing this vision?
Can the research and development of new batteries "overtake on a curve"... The reporter of Science and Technology Daily in Germany interviewed Zhang Lin, a professor at the Institute of Solid State Physics at Hannover University in Germany, and Kai-Christian Muller, a spokesperson for the Fraunhofer Battery Alliance. Dr. Christian Moeller) and other battery experts.
A rare opportunity, Chinese batteries integrate into the European market
Chinese batteries and new energy vehicles are continuously entering the European market.
At the Hannover International Commercial Vehicle Show, the Chinese battery manufacturer CATL signed cooperation agreements with a number of the world's leading vehicle companies, and won the "Daimler Truck Supplier Award"; later, the German car rental company SIXT and Chinese electric vehicle companies BYD has signed an order for 100,000 new energy vehicles, and the overall development momentum of China's new energy industry is good.
According to a report by market research firm SNE Research, in the first half of 2022, the global installed capacity of power batteries was 202GWh, a significant increase of 75.65% from 115GWh in the same period last year.
Among the top 20 companies in terms of market share, there are 15 Chinese companies, with a total market share of 61.88%.
Among the 12 power battery manufacturers with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 100%, 11 are Chinese companies.
Since 2017, CATL has been the global power battery sales champion for five consecutive years.
In the first half of 2022, CATL's power batteries accounted for 34.16% of the world's total.
"We are proud to be an important force in promoting the electrification of the industry together with other global leading companies," said Li Xiaoning, executive president of CATL's Overseas Commercial Business Unit, at the Hannover International Commercial Vehicle Show.
Whether it is the CTP and MTV structural innovative batteries of CATL, or BYD's new blade batteries, China's power battery products already have comprehensive advantages in terms of safety performance, strength, endurance, service life, charge and discharge power, and low temperature performance.
Meanwhile, electric vehicle sales in Europe are growing rapidly.
According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), about one in 10 new cars sold in the EU in the first half of 2022 were pure electric vehicles.
Europe plans to phase out gasoline and diesel-powered cars by 2035.
Europe, which still lacks local battery companies, has become the largest overseas market for Chinese power batteries.
The cost is too high, and European companies once gave up cell production
Europe has always been an important base for battery research, but for cost reasons, Europe has gradually abandoned battery production in recent years.
According to experts from Daimler AG, Daimler was once a pioneer in electric vehicle research, producing lithium batteries in Saxony, Germany as early as 2012.
However, its products do not have much advantage over other manufacturers' batteries, coupled with limited production capacity and high costs. After three years of losses, Daimler closed the lithium battery production plant in December 2015.
At that time, Daimler CEO Zetsche said: "Daimler used to be the only company in Germany that produced its own batteries, but today we realize that we can purchase it all over the world!"
Automotive electronics supplier Bosch was also one of the early companies in the electric vehicle battery business and has a number of related patents.
As of August 2021, Bosch ranked third in patent applications in the global lithium battery industry, with 2,571 patent applications.
Taking into account the first-mover technological advantages of Asian suppliers, Bosch estimated in 2018 that it would need to invest 20 billion euros to gain a 20% market share in 2030, and it is still unknown whether and when the investment will pay off.
Therefore, after careful evaluation of the market, technology, cost and investment, Bosch made a strategic decision to abandon cell production.
In an interview with a reporter from Science and Technology Daily, a senior German battery expert said frankly: "It is really regrettable that Bosch made a strategic decision to abandon battery cell production in 2018."
After American and European companies gave up battery production, the battery production industry gradually concentrated in Asia.
This is an industry with full market competition. At present, products from many companies in China, Japan and South Korea are available for purchase.
Starting anew, Europe vigorously supports the development of the local battery industry
With the rise of new energy vehicles around the world, more and more car companies realize that the battery in an electric vehicle is not just a replaceable common component.
It's the heart and most expensive component of an electric vehicle, and it's becoming as crucial a factor in sales as the engine of yesteryear.
The EU is beginning to realize that building a complete local battery value chain in Europe is a top priority for clean energy transition and industrial competition.
The market opportunity for the European battery industry is expected to reach around 250 billion euros per year by 2025.
With the strong support of the European Union, in 2017, the European Battery Alliance (EBA), which aims to promote and develop local battery cell production, was established, with the participation of 14 EU member states, the European Investment Bank, and hundreds of companies and scientific research institutions.
In April 2022, EBA proposed a new action plan, hoping that by 2030 the EU's domestic battery products can meet 90% of its market demand.
The EU has successively invested tens of billions of euros to support local battery research and development and production through two "Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI)".
Local battery companies have sprung up in Europe.
Among these companies, the development of Swedish battery company Northvolt, Germany's Volkswagen and French car battery company ACC is the most eye-catching.
Northvolt's first lithium battery factory will be mass-produced in the first quarter of 2022, with an estimated annual production capacity of 16GWh after completion.
Northvolt plans to achieve a capacity of 150GWh by 2030.
Volkswagen started construction of its first 40GWh battery plant in Salzgitter in July 2022, with mass production planned for 2025.
By 2030, Volkswagen will build six large battery factories in Europe, with a total annual production capacity of 240GWh.
ACC is building the first 13GWh battery factory in France, which will expand to 40GWh in the future.
In addition, ACC also plans to build two factories with a capacity of 40GWh in Germany and Italy. By 2030, ACC's total battery capacity will increase to 120GWh.
At the same time, more than 40 battery manufacturers around the world have announced that they will build battery factories in Europe.
According to a report from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation (ISI), according to announcements from battery manufacturers active in Europe, Europe could achieve 124GWh of battery production capacity in 2022, and by 2025, this figure is expected to reach 500GWh , and may even reach 1.5TWh by 2030.
There are many challenges, and European battery companies need to overcome four major difficulties
European companies face many challenges in producing power batteries.
The first is to overcome the difficulties of mass production.
Asian battery companies are generally developed from lithium battery companies for consumer electronics. Through years of accumulation, they have gradually solved various problems encountered in mass production.
However, the self-built industrial chain in Europe is still in its infancy. Many newly established battery manufacturers lack similar experience and need to overcome more difficulties in the mass production process.
"Production experience is very important for lithium battery manufacturing. The production and commissioning of lithium batteries involves at least 4,000 parameters, and it is not easy to achieve balanced quality control of the cells even for the same batch of products. For the same standardized factory, it is also difficult to build a new one. It takes a long time to debug. The real challenge is to mass-produce millions of batteries with minimal quality fluctuations. Europe still has a long way to go in this regard.” A battery expert from a German company was interviewed by reporters Say.
The second is to ensure the supply of raw materials.
At present, China has a high market share in the key links of cell production.
This means that many materials needed by European battery manufacturers have to be sourced from China.
Taking Northvolt, the only local power battery manufacturer in Europe that has started mass production, as an example, many of the core materials of its batteries come from Chinese suppliers.
Europe is increasing cooperation with the United States, Canada, Australia and other countries in terms of raw materials.
But the problem is that the new supply chain must pay huge time and capital cost.
For example, a new raw material base will take at least 10 years from the initial feasibility study to the start of production, and will take several years to reach the design capacity.
Kay Christian Muller told reporters: "Securing a secure, stable supply chain is always a challenge when building GWh-scale battery production, everywhere and in all circumstances, not just for European companies. In terms of.” He has been engaged in the research and development of lithium batteries for nearly 30 years, and the Fraunhofer Battery Alliance where he works includes 24 research institutions, covering battery materials, module design and production technology.
Once again, it is the supporting capacity of lithium battery equipment.
The production process of lithium batteries is relatively complex. It is roughly divided into the stages of pole piece manufacturing, cell assembly, cell formation, and testing. The relevant manufacturing equipment orders are gathering from leading companies in various sub-sectors. The advantages of Asian companies in this regard Obviously, it is expected to become the core equipment supplier of new battery factories in Europe.
Take Volkswagen's new battery plant, for example.
In January 2022, Volkswagen and Bosch issued a joint statement on plans to form a joint venture to supply equipment to battery factories.
But in June 2022, Volkswagen still placed an order for 40Gwh of production equipment from the Salzgitter battery factory to a Chinese lithium battery equipment supplier.
The last is to participate in the global market competition.
Asian battery companies are taking advantage of the time window when European local battery companies have not yet formed large-scale production capacity to seize market share.
It is estimated that by 2025, the battery capacity of CATL will reach 670GWh, BYD may reach 600GWh, and LG New Energy plans to reach 540GWh.
From upstream lithium mines and lithium salts, to battery positive and negative electrode materials, separators, manufacturing equipment, etc., leading companies have relatively complete layouts, and continue to carry out technological innovations and products around new battery structures and material systems. iterate.
The production of batteries is an industry that extremely pursues economies of scale.
Whether European local battery companies can expand production capacity and reduce costs in a short period of time is the key to their participation in market competition.
Faced with a series of challenges such as rising raw material prices upstream, pressing competitors, and strict control of purchase prices by OEMs, how to survive and develop in the brutal market competition may be the biggest problem faced by emerging European battery companies.
Green barriers, carbon footprint thresholds or a double-edged sword
In March 2022, the European Parliament passed the "EU New Battery Regulations" to drive the green and low-carbon transformation of the battery industry with stricter requirements.
From July 1, 2024, only batteries with a declared carbon footprint can be placed on the European market.
In 2027, Europe will ban the sale of batteries that exceed the maximum carbon footprint limit.
The EU also mandates battery recycling and reuse of metals such as nickel, cobalt, and lithium, alleviating pressure on environmental protection and raw materials.
In addition, the EU will mandate due diligence on the entire supply chain of batteries, including the social and environmental risks involved in the extraction of raw materials, cell production, and battery use.
This series of new regulatory policies will undoubtedly benefit the layout of local battery companies in Europe and make up for their disadvantage in product cost.
Correspondingly, the new battery companies in Europe attach great importance to the carbon emissions of the whole life cycle of batteries from raw materials to products.
Data from the European Federation of Transport and the Environment shows that the carbon emissions of electric vehicle battery production range from 61kg to 106kg CO_2e/kWh, which can account for more than 60% of the total life cycle emissions of electric vehicles.
Northvolt emphasizes that, due to the use of 100% renewable energy, the carbon footprint of its batteries (about 33kg CO_2e/kWh) is only one-third that of similar industry reference batteries, and Northvolt hopes to reach a 10kg CO_2e/kWh by 2030. Target.
However, there is an important premise for building green barriers for the European battery industry, that is, Europe's battery production capacity can meet its own needs.
Otherwise, these measures will increase production costs, including for European battery makers, when the products of leading Asian companies will remain competitive.
Zeng Yuqun, chairman of CATL, said that based on the composition of the carbon footprint of power batteries, most of the carbon footprint can be reduced through measures such as green power, large-scale recycling, and technological process upgrades. Combined with carbon sinks, zero-carbon batteries can be realized. .
In the first quarter of 2022, CATL recycled a total of 21,000 tons of waste batteries, and used these waste batteries to produce 18,000 tons of precursors.
In March 2022, CATL's Yibin factory received international certification, becoming the world's first zero-carbon battery factory.
Switching the track, can Europe gain a head start with solid-state batteries
Solid-state batteries are an important direction for the research and development of next-generation power batteries, and are considered to be expected to replace traditional lithium-ion batteries (LIBs).
Zhang Lin focuses on the design, optimization and recycling technology of new energy materials, and was nominated for the 2019 Leibniz Prize.
In an interview with a reporter from Science and Technology Daily, she emphasized: "For the industrialization of all-solid-state batteries, both China and Europe are currently in their infancy."
Zhang Lin introduced the long-term accumulation of solid-state battery research in Europe.
For example, BMW has cooperated with SolidPower in the United States to develop sulfide solid-state electrolyte technology, and plans to launch a solid-state battery prototype by 2025 and use it in mass-produced vehicles by 2030.
Volkswagen cooperates with QuantumScape of the United States, focusing on the research of oxide solid-state electrolytes, and plans to mass-produce solid-state batteries in 2025.
"The development of all-solid-state lithium batteries in Europe mainly depends on the development of solid electrolytes. The most promising electrolytes are oxides, sulfides and polymers, and borohydrides and halides have also made breakthroughs in the last five years, but the above The advantages and disadvantages of various electrolytes are obvious. At present, only the ionic conductivity of some sulfide electrolytes is close to or exceeds the level of organic liquid electrolytes. Due to problems in the interface and other aspects, their electrochemical stability is not satisfactory.” Zhang Lynn said.
She emphasized that there is currently no perfect electrolyte to meet the application requirements, so various electrolytes need to be improved to obtain good comprehensive performance.
Fundamental and applied research progresses iteratively.
Some material systems have begun to slowly enter the field of application.
The experience gained in the application process will lead to the development of basic research.
In addition, continued efforts are needed to discover new structures of ionic conductors, and computational binding experiments using high-throughput screening will aid in the discovery of new compounds.
In addition, she also mentioned that in terms of oxide solid-state batteries, their electrolytes have relatively high ionic conductivity and relatively stable chemical properties, are not demanding on the preparation environment, and are easy to produce and apply on a large scale.
However, compared with traditional lithium-ion battery packs, the cost of oxide solid-state batteries is still high, and the performance will take some time to improve.
Oxide solid-state batteries are most likely to be used in high-end electric vehicles first, because customers may be willing to pay a premium for solid-state batteries for longer range and higher safety.
Speaking of semi-solid batteries, Zhang Lin said: "Currently, Chinese solid-state battery companies mainly choose the research and development route of semi-solid batteries based on solid-liquid mixed electrolytes. Although adding liquid electrolytes may reduce thermal stability to a certain extent, using solid-liquid electrolytes The process of mass production of semi-solid batteries with mixed electrolytes is more compatible with the current manufacturing technology and equipment of liquid lithium-ion batteries. Considering factors such as materials and equipment, semi-solid batteries are more feasible in the short term and are already on the eve of mass production. "
Can Europe achieve corner overtaking by developing other new batteries, such as lithium-air or lithium-sulfur batteries?
Kai Christian Muller is not optimistic about this. He told the Science and Technology Daily reporter: "These new battery systems are still under development and there are still many problems in bringing them to the market. It is impossible for Europe to rely on these battery systems to catch up with Asian battery manufacturers. "
Complementary advantages, the Chinese and European battery industries look forward to mutually beneficial cooperation
The local battery industry in Europe is in the process of rapid development.
Through policy guidance and the coordination of upstream and downstream enterprises, the battery production capacity in Europe will gradually expand around 2025 and occupy a certain global market share.
At the same time, European companies are also seeking far-reaching layout of the battery industry at different levels.
For example, cooperate with battery companies through equity investment or joint ventures, infiltrate the upstream mineral resources of power batteries to ensure stable production capacity supply, and strengthen control over the industrial chain.
Taking Germany’s BASF as an example, in August 2021, BASF acquired a 51% stake in Shanshan Energy, a leading Chinese lithium battery material company, and actively promoted cooperation with battery companies such as CATL and Honeycomb Energy in the field of battery materials and recycling; in Japan In the United States, BASF has established a joint venture with Tian Industrial, an established cathode material supplier; in Europe, BASF has built production bases for cathode active materials and cathode material precursors in Germany and Finland.
BASF has quietly become one of the world's leading suppliers of cathode active materials for lithium batteries, not only grabbing a strong market advantage, but also becoming the first company with cathode material production capacity in all major global markets.
Let's look at the German Volkswagen whose strategic goal is to become one of the world's three largest battery manufacturers.
In May 2020, Volkswagen invested about 1.1 billion euros to acquire a 26% stake in Chinese battery manufacturer Guoxuan Hi-Tech, becoming the largest shareholder of Guoxuan Hi-Tech.
In the first half of 2022, Guoxuan Hi-Tech's power battery installed capacity was 5.8GWh, ranking eighth in the world.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech is developing the first generation of standard batteries for the public.
In the battery factory built by Volkswagen, Guoxuan Hi-Tech will act as a technical partner and cooperate with Volkswagen in the production layout, equipment deployment and production process of the battery factory to help it realize the industrialized production of batteries.
From this perspective, the China-Europe battery industry is forming a new bond, where capital, technology and market are intertwined and deeply integrated.
On the one hand, Chinese companies have their own advantages in terms of capacity scale, technological maturity, and supply chain control capabilities; on the other hand, Europe is also continuously strengthening its own supply capabilities for key products.
The strengthening of mutually beneficial cooperation between Chinese and European enterprises will help both sides to give full play to their respective advantages and take the initiative in the global new energy vehicle market.
Looking ahead, China and the EU may be the right way to jointly tackle climate change and the energy crisis.
(Science and Technology Daily)