Next week, the leadership of the Fed, the US central bank, will meet to decide on interest rates.

With these growth figures at the back, it points in the wrong direction in terms of future inflation, and thus increases the probability that interest rate increases will continue as hard as planned.

What does this have to do with me in Sweden?

All!

Sweden is a very small dinghy on the global financial sea, and when the Fed tanker passes by, we have to deal with its waves.

Especially now, when the krona is so weak, the pressure on the Riksbank to follow the Fed is increasing.

Swedish imports become more expensive

When the US interest rate rises compared to the rest of the world, more money flows into the US because the yield rises for those who own interest-bearing paper in dollars, and then the dollar rises.

Swedish imports, which are largely made in dollars, become more expensive.

We import more inflation.

Increased pressure to raise the Swedish interest rate.

Most of our foreign trade takes place with EU countries, so the Swedish krona is affected in the same way by the interest rate situation within the euro zone.

On Thursday, the ECB, the European Central Bank, raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points.

The fight against inflation continues.

At the same time, there are positive signs regarding energy prices in Europe.

The gas warehouses are full and the tankers with liquid natural gas are queuing up in the ports.

Should it also be a mild winter, there will be less fuel on the inflation fire.

Does this mean that interest rates may be raised unnecessarily now?

The effect of an interest rate increase occurs with different delays in different parts of the economy.

It may take a year or two before you see the full results.

There is a risk that you push too hard, but also that you let off the brakes too soon, because you cannot see into the future.

But the main reason to go hard now, in the short term, is to show determination.

About psychology

The Riksbank's main goal with its sharp interest rate hikes is to send the signal to us, to the relatively poorer wage earners ahead of the wage movement this winter, that we should not expect inflation to take hold.

We must believe that the fight against inflation is successful.

Therefore, it is better to be scared a little too much in the beginning, than the other way around.

It's all about psychology now.

Inflation expectations, what we think will happen to prices going forward, must be kept down.

It became not least clear at the latest hearing in the Riksdag's finance committee when Deputy Riksbank Governor Per Jansson spoke about the forecast that we will return to the inflation target of two percent in 2024: "It's not just our forecast, it's a promise!"

If the forecast is to come true, we have to believe that they deliver on the promise.

Therefore, don't expect them to let off the brakes in the first place.