The war in Ukraine disrupted aviation
A nuclear conflict could completely halt global air traffic
The use of tactical nuclear weapons would have dire repercussions.
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Airlines have changed their itineraries.
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Insurance companies are trying to adapt to the new situation.
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After three decades of flying between London and Hong Kong, Virgin Atlantic has canceled its flights.
The decision is not a political statement, but rather a reflection of geopolitics.
Russia's cancellation of overflight rights for Western airlines added several hours to the already long flying time between Europe and the Far East.
Other companies are likely to join Virgin Atlantic, but the real and sudden prospect of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine adds a new, even more devastating danger: a complete standstill in global air travel.
Since the Cold War, aviation insurance has ruled out nuclear war.
This means that if Russia uses a so-called "tactical nuclear weapon" against Ukraine, global aviation could stop completely.
It is worth noting that the "operational complexities" that were suddenly imposed on Western airlines, when Russia closed its airspace to them on February 28, are enormous.
Airlines have had to divert their routes either north, to the Arctic and Alaska, or south, to the Middle East and Central Asia, which means longer flight times.
And on March 9, less than two weeks after Russia's no-fly zone, Finnair proved that the polar route could work, when it offered its main flight from Helsinki to Tokyo.
The flight "A.
And the.
073» Helsinki heading towards the Norwegian Svalbard Islands and the Arctic, then continuing towards Alaska and across the Bering Sea and the North Pacific towards Japan.
It was a smooth ride, but it took about 13 hours, which is three and a half hours longer than before.
Not the only complication
But passenger discomfort isn't the only complication facing Western airlines on popular long-haul routes between Europe and East Asia, as well as the east coast of the United States and destinations in India, for example.
It is flights from Europe to East Asia, which used to pass through most of Russia, which face the greatest obstacles.
When the flight has to arrive three or four hours later than usual, this means that the usual return flight may not be possible.
This in turn means that the plane may have to spend the night at the airport, which leads to charging parking fees and more hours for the plane, which does not generate income;
Then there is the extra fuel.
In this context, a senior European aviation executive said: “Of course we can carry less payload if the plane is heavy with fuel, and this also increases fuel burn.” He continued, “So operating these routes will certainly be more expensive to operate, and will require customers to pay More than they used to.” And the fuel costs, of course, are also high.
Meanwhile, Chinese airlines have reopened their routes between Europe and China, which were suspended during the pandemic, an easy option given that they are not covered by Russia's ban on flights.
Middle Eastern airlines, whose routes to the Far East did not pass through Russia, would likewise benefit.
War Exceptions
But now airlines, too, face an even more devastating threat: a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine.
All airline insurance policies have exclusions for war and nuclear attacks.
This nuclear exclusion clause has been in place since the Cold War;
Fortunately, it was never invoked.
But since it was written during the Cold War, it predicts a nuclear attack that will lead to an all-out nuclear war, in which all insurances will be voided simply because the world will be utterly destroyed.
Now, though, the world faces the prospect of Russia using a nuclear weapon on the battlefield against Ukraine.
It is said that Russia has been working for several years to develop a new generation of battlefield nuclear weapons, also known as low-yield nuclear weapons.
A single low-yield Russian nuclear weapon, depending on how it is used, can kill between zero and tens of thousands of people.
Although these weapons may cause devastation in the target area, the damage will not be extensive, as in the Cold War.
But since the nuclear policy exceptions have not been tested by any such attacks, they simply state that a nuclear attack would void the insurance.
This means that if Russia uses a nuclear weapon on the battlefield against Ukraine, global airlines will stop flying.
“What we are facing now is dangerous, but it is not a nuclear holocaust,” says an executive who represents airlines before private insurance companies, who preferred to remain anonymous.
Now insurers are debating what to do in the event of a tactical nuclear attack.
We must discuss what nuclear event will cancel the airline insurance.
At the moment, “we tell clients: You have this clause, and insurance companies can implement it,” the executive explains.
More complex environment
Certainly, "people's number one concern in the event of a nuclear attack is not insurance," according to Lloyd's Market Chief of Naval and Aviation Neil Roberts, and it is a matter of whether this provision will be enforced.
Now airlines and their insurance companies are urgently trying to redefine the nuclear conflict.
Should insurance policies include different categories of nuclear attack: limited and all-out war?
And what if Putin or another leader used one, two, or 10 nuclear weapons on the battlefield?
Is this an isolated event or more like a nuclear war?
And all this in a geopolitical environment that is much more complex today than that of the Cold War.
Indeed, insurance companies and airlines have been seriously considering the possibility of new nuclear conflicts over the past few years.
“We thought a lot about this because of Syria, where the official nuclear-weapon states are on opposite sides,” Roberts said.
"We're working behind the scenes to clarify this," Roberts said.
Let's hope insurance companies and airlines succeed in their endeavours," he said, adding, "A nuclear attack anywhere would be horrific, but no one wants to encourage chaos in global transportation."
Elizabeth Brau is a columnist and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
Chinese airlines have reopened routes between Europe and China that were suspended during the pandemic, an easy option given that they are not covered by Russia's ban on flights.
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