The amount of revenue is not clear
Talking about the victor in Lebanon’s deal with Israel is “premature”
The demarcation of the border between Lebanon and Israel is a postponed project.
Reuters
Israel will continue to explore and pump gas from the Karish field.
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The maritime border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel, a few days ago, resulted in many winners and losers. As for the winner and the loser, this is another issue.
Leaders of the two countries claimed victory after US President Joe Biden unveiled the agreement, with the opposition in both countries accusing their governments of ceding national wealth.
There are questions about the agreement itself, and whether it will survive the coming political storms.
Therefore, before putting the final frills on the outcome, we must first determine what was and is still at stake.
The long-running dispute over land borders serves two primary goals: security and the delineation of the exclusive economic zones of Lebanon.
Israel at the fore
On the security side, it is clear that Israel is in the lead, as it has taken control of the line that begins five kilometers from the coast and extends to areas that Lebanon considers its own.
Lebanon tried to push this line to the south, but Israel vehemently resisted that, fearing that this move might give the Lebanese access to northern Israel.
But the outcome on the economy is more mixed.
Until the beginning of 2000, when Israel and Egypt began discovering gas reserves in their territorial waters, there was little economic activity in the northern Mediterranean.
As soon as gas was found, Lebanon began carrying out its own explorations, which made it clear that Lebanon had commercially viable gas reserves.
The exploration rights in the most promising areas (blocks 4 and 9) were awarded to the French oil giant “Total” in 2018.
And "Total" excavated in (Area 4) opposite the Beirut beach in 2020, but it did not find anything.
Total said that it will not dig in (Area 9), which is disputed over its southern border with Israel, without Israel's approval, which requires the participation of the Lebanese Hezbollah.
Not so long ago, it was unimaginable that Hezbollah would conclude an agreement with Israel.
However, the great collapse of the Lebanese economy forced Hezbollah to acquiesce.
The government is bankrupt
Lebanon is a rentier state, where wealthy ruling oligarchs use their resources to provide social services to their supporters, including government jobs, retirement and health care.
But given that the government is bankrupt, millions of Lebanese find themselves without a social safety net.
Some began to rely on the services of "Hezbollah", which expanded greatly to the point of collapse.
For example, the Great Rasoul Hospital, the main health care facility for Hezbollah in Beirut, has become unable to deal with the increasing number of patients.
The hospital is barely able to keep its lights on, and medicines are so scarce that people with chronic diseases such as diabetes and others don't have much choice.
Lebanon has already run out of insulin.
With the collapse of Lebanon, Hezbollah is under severe pressure.
Lebanon's Shiites who support the party have been hurt, but neither the party, nor its poor backer, Iran, can do much to alleviate this suffering.
Hezbollah's claim
Hoping to produce gas to help alleviate Lebanon's economic disaster, Hezbollah filed a lawsuit in order to settle the maritime border issue, and to allow Total to drill in (Area 9).
But before the party's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, appeared on national television on the eve of the announcement of the agreement, he had launched two drones in the sky of Israel last summer, most likely targeting the Israeli "Karesh" field.
Nasrallah pretended that he had sent Israel a warning that he would strike Karish if Tel Aviv began production before reaching an agreement with Lebanon.
In other words, Hezbollah was threatening Israel with war to force it to reach an agreement.
Everyone, especially Israel, realizes that Hezbollah cannot drag Lebanon into war in its current state.
Nevertheless, Israeli officials likely believed that they could extract some concessions from Lebanon, such as drawing the border between the two sides on land and at sea.
Compromise
Hezbollah wanted a compromise solution, but not a solution that recognized Israel and demarcated the borders in a way that would end all disputes between the two parties.
After all, the party exists to fight Israel.
Accordingly, the demarcation of the land border was excluded from the negotiations.
Instead, it was replaced by a maritime border five kilometers from the shore, leaving most of (Area 9), or what is known as the “Qana” field, in Lebanese hands.
If gas is discovered in the Qana field, Lebanon will receive 83% of its revenues, while Israel will receive 17%.
In previous scenarios presented by the United States, Israel was given 45% of the disputed area.
Kana field
Although the assessment of the reserves of the Qana field will be postponed to a later stage of exploration, the Israeli Energy Minister expects that this field contains a quantity of gas equivalent to three billion dollars.
However, given that Lebanon's external debt stands at $68.9 billion, the revenues from the Qana field are not expected to significantly improve the Lebanese economy.
If it is not proven that the Qana field contains huge quantities of gas, or if other gas fields are not suddenly discovered, Lebanon's claim of achieving an economic victory during the maritime border demarcation negotiations will be misplaced.
But if the Qana field surprises everyone with huge amounts of reserves, or if other fields containing huge quantities of gas are discovered, Israel will regret that it agreed to an agreement brokered by the United States.
A deal is not a treaty
In addition, the temporary nature of the agreement will allow Israel to reconsider the deal, or it could collapse completely.
The deal itself is not a treaty between two countries, but rather a document and maps deposited by the United States with the United Nations (the second deposit it has made since 2009. None of these documents has been ratified, at least in Lebanon. In Israel, the cabinet voted on the agreement, but The Knesset has not ratified, meaning that a cabinet vote can be undone by a subsequent cabinet.
Ultimately, if the current opposition leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, who spoiled the deal while in power, becomes prime minister again on November 1, Israel could withdraw from the deal before it becomes clear how much gas is in the Qana field, if There was already gas present.
Regardless of how things turn out, what is certain is that it is premature for either side to declare victory.
• Lebanon is a rentier state, where the wealthy ruling oligarchs use their resources to provide social services to their supporters, including government jobs, retirement and health care.
• Nasrallah pretended that he sent Israel a warning that he would hit Karish if Tel Aviv started production before reaching an agreement with Lebanon. In other words, Hezbollah was threatening Israel with war to force it to reach an agreement.
• If gas is discovered in the "Qana" field, Lebanon will receive 83% of its revenues, while Israel will receive 17%.
Hussein Abdul Hussein ■ is a researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington
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