Admittedly, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has maintained its growth forecast for 2022 at 3.2%, already revised three times this year.

But it lowered that expected for 2023 again, this time to 2.7%, or 0.2 points less than what was anticipated in July.

“Our report highlights that there is a 25% chance that global growth will fall below 2% next year, a historic low the world has seen only five times since 1970,” the chief explained. IMF economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas during a press conference at the institution's headquarters in Washington.

The three global locomotives, the United States, China and Europe, are indeed slowing down.

Because the global economy, which was slowly recovering from the effects of the pandemic and continued to face logistical problems in many sectors, is now facing an unusual chain of shocks.

At the center of the difficulties, persistent inflation, affecting advanced economies but, even more so, emerging and developing countries, and which should reach 8.8% on average worldwide this year (+0.5 points compared to forecasts). of July).

Risk of incorrect calibration

"Tightening monetary policies too much, but also not tightening them enough, could strengthen the anchor of inflation. History reminds us, this will only make the fight against inflation even more expensive" for economies , alerted Mr. Gourinchas, who calls on central banks to "continue normalization".

On a positive note, however: global inflation should have peaked in the third quarter (9.5%) and start to fall back from the last quarter of 2022, continuing this trend next year, to return in the last quarter of 2023 to a level comparable to 2021 inflation (4.7%).

IMF growth forecasts Jonathan WALTER AFP

The Fund's chief economist, however, warned of the risk of "poor calibration of policies, whether monetary, budgetary or financial, a risk which is increasing in the face of growing uncertainties and fragility".

The economic slowdown will affect all of the richest states, starting with the United States: growth there has been revised to just 1.6% in 2022, against 2.3% expected in July.

2023 could be even more difficult, the Fund expecting just 1%.

And the situation is not much better in the euro zone: admittedly, growth should reach 3.1% in 2022, better than expected in July (+0.5 points) but the zone should come close to recession in 2023, at 0.5% growth (-0.7 point compared to July forecasts).

And for some Member States, Germany and Italy, recession seems inevitable next year (-0.3% and -0.2% respectively), while France can hope to stay above the line flotation, with growth of 0.7%.

Just like, outside the EU, the United Kingdom, at 0.3%.

Emerging countries resist better

China, the world's second largest economy, should for its part experience in 2022 its worst year for more than 40 years, if we exclude the pandemic in 2020, with an expected growth of just 3.2%, before starting up again slightly. in 2023 (4.4%).

China, the world's second largest economy, is expected to experience its weakest growth in 40 years Jade GAO AFP/Archives

In question, the repeated confinements caused by the zero tolerance policy vis-à-vis the Covid-19 which affected several cities in the country, starting with its economic pole, Shanghai, closed for more than a month.

Russia, whose economy is bearing the full brunt of the sanctions put in place in particular by the United States and the European Union after the invasion of Ukraine, will experience a recession this year, but the situation should be less marked than envisaged at the beginning of the summer.

The IMF now anticipates a contraction of 3.4% for 2022, but this is 2.6 points better than the forecasts made last July.

Russia, however, is expected to be the only economy in the G20, which will meet in Washington on Wednesday, to experience recession this year.

In a gloomy global context, the Latin America and Caribbean region is seeing its forecasts improve, with growth now expected at 3.5% (+0.5 points) this year, even if its two main economies, the Brazil and Mexico will have less marked growth than the average for the region.

However, the future remains uncertain, underlines the Fund, which recognizes that its forecasts, in particular for 2023, are only valid "if inflation expectations remain stable and monetary tightening does not lead to a generalized recession or a disorderly adjustment of financial markets".

© 2022 AFP