A little air for the Chancellor.

Germany's Social Democratic Party won a regional test election for Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday, giving him a breather at a time when his popularity continues to wane in the face of the energy crisis.

The SPD Social Democrats won 33% of the vote in the regional state of Lower Saxony, in the north of the country, the second largest in Germany, which they have led since 2013 in coalition.

They are ahead of the conservative party (CDU) of ex-chancellor Angela Merkel (2005-2021), which obtains around 28% of the vote, according to estimates by public television channels.

“Referendum” on Scholz 

Despite growing public discontent at national level, Olaf Scholz's party has benefited from the good local image of Lower Saxony's Minister President, Social Democrat Stephan Weil.

She saved him the humiliation of a new defeat, after two bitter electoral setbacks against the center-right last spring in regional elections, in North Rhine-Westphalia (west) and in Schleswig-Holstein (north) .

This election in Lower Saxony was "very important" for Olaf Scholz, estimated German political scientist Karl-Rudolf Korte on the ZDF channel, because it constituted "a referendum on government policy" in the face of the war in Ukraine and the crisis. However, the SPD is down from the previous regional election in 2017, when it recorded 36.9%.The Conservatives also posted a result well below their performance in 2017 (33.6%).

It is the extreme right in particular that seems to have benefited, capitalizing on the frustration and concern aroused by the problems of energy supply and the soaring prices: the Alternative for Germany (AfD) reaches 11, 5%, almost double the previous vote.

Its officials plead for a rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, believing that Germany cannot do without Russian gas.

Progress of the ecologists

They gathered several thousand supporters at a demonstration against rising prices in Berlin on Saturday.

Their breakthrough is all the more significant as this movement is usually mainly established in the east of the country and not very popular elsewhere.

German ecologists, members of Olaf Scholz's government coalition, are also progressing strongly, with more than 14%, an increase of more than 5 points.

In number of seats in the local parliament, the Social Democrats and the Greens are arithmetically in a position to form a new majority, which would replace the current coalition made up of the SPD and the CDU.

The results of Lower Saxony constitute a relief for Olaf Scholz, after the criticisms of which it was the object in Germany: policy of support considered to be too timid towards Ukraine, growing fears of the opinion vis-a-vis the inflation, fear of a nuclear conflict in Europe.

Nationally, the SPD has fallen sharply in recent months in voting intentions, below the 20% threshold, outpaced by the Conservatives.

And Olaf Scholz's personal popularity melted away.

Soaring energy prices pushed inflation up to 10% in September, the highest in Germany for 70 years.

In addition to declines in purchasing power and a recession announced next year, the leading European economy fears a disintegration of its industrial fabric.

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