While it is hard to imagine the various budgets and the pension reform passing without recourse to 49.3, Emmanuel Macron warned: if the National Assembly brings down the government, it will be dissolution.
A threat that does not really scare anyone publicly.
In private, everyone recognizes that all the political forces are not in the same form, only three months after the last election.
Detailed review of the worried and the serene, by 20
Minutes
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If the summer of the executive was not easy, his return is likely to be even harder.
It is the difficult apprenticeship of government without a majority in the National Assembly that continues.
This time with the choice pieces that are the Finance Bill (PLF) and the Social Security Finance Bill (the famous PLFSS).
Retreats are also coming soon.
So many subjects on which the government could appeal to article 49.3 of the constitution, that is to say the blocked vote.
And therefore probably to motions of censure of the oppositions to answer them.
In the event that the National Assembly brings down the government, Emmanuel Macron warned last week in front of his majority: it will be the dissolution and therefore the return to the polls.
The hypothesis of seeing a motion of censure adopted is very unlikely but the threat is there.
Who's afraid of it?
The Nupes
Publicly, no problem.
"We have never been afraid of popular expression and democracy," proclaims the rebellious MEP Manon Aubry.
Except that since the start of the school year, with the business that is linked, it is still rather depressed on the side of the New Popular Ecological and Social Union.
“Who can seriously claim today that the Nupes would emerge strengthened from a dissolution?
asked a feathered socialist leader earlier this week.
And then who to lead the campaign?
The aura of Jean-Luc Mélenchon crowned with its 22% of April 10 has already faded.
Nevertheless, the union of the left believes it still has a few strings to its bow, especially if the dissolution is caused by a blockage on the pension reform.
“This means that the campaign that follows is a campaign on pensions, it almost turns it into a referendum.
Not sure it's positive for Emmanuel Macron, ”imagines the socialist Arthur Delaporte.
The ecologist Benjamin Lucas, he prefers to get out of the immediate context not folichon of the Nupes: "We won our 151 seats on the refusal of retirement at 65 and on our proposals for the increase in wages, which all been refused.
Basically, the reasons why we won our seats are still there.
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Fear rate: 50%
The Republicans
"I'm not playing bravado, I'm not sure we'll come back with the same number of elected officials," admits Philippe Gosselin.
Nevertheless, the LR deputy for La Manche does not believe that his party is the one that has "the most to fear" from a threat which most of the people questioned believe is first and foremost a blow of pressure on LR.
“Why would we be the first to pay the price when we managed to pass some of our measures on purchasing power this summer?
asks the Norman.
He thinks that the responsible opposition that LR is trying to embody could favor it.
After the 4.8% of Valérie Pécresse in the presidential election, it is certain that the 62 members of the LR group in the Assembly pass for miracles.
But if they resisted in the storm, it is also that they are well established in their constituencies.
Proof of this is: LR and its allies only reached the second round in 77 constituencies, but they won 62 times.
A damn good ratio that can say that anyway, the right may have already hit the bottom of the pool.
Fear rate: 30%
The National Rally
“We are absolutely not afraid!
“, gets carried away the deputy of Gironde, Edwige Diaz.
Not only does she think that the 89 constituencies won in June, the RN can keep them: "We are all deputies very present on the ground", she says.
But better, she believes that her party can win “in all the constituencies where we lost with more than 45%”.
In any case, if there is one thing on which everyone seems to agree more or less in the Assembly, it is that a return to the polls would be very favorable to the far right.
“The respectabilization of the RN works”, affirms a worried socialist deputy, “convinced” of progress of the far right in the event of early elections.
But such unanimity ends up becoming suspicious: the analysis "it's good for the RN" almost acts as a crutch for those who above all want to show that they are not disconnected from the "real country".
Fear rate: 20%
The majority and the executive
In the majority we play it modest, like “if we have to go, well we will go”.
"In July when the President of the Republic received the deputies of the majority, he began by saying that we had to be in a permanent campaign and that we could go back to the election at any time", recalls the spokesperson. of the Renaissance group, Maud Bregeon.
It will not be simple from a practical point of view “but to go and explain the challenges of our pension reform, there I am not afraid”, abounds his colleague from the Modem, Erwan Balanant.
The two consider that Emmanuel Macron and the majority did not make hidden advances on pensions during the electoral campaigns, and that did not prevent them from being elected.
Precisely, isn't this one of the main reasons for the loss of the absolute majority?
The oppositions believe they have a card to play on this, but not only that.
What will be the opinion of the French in front of a president who calls them back to the polls less than six months after the last ballot?
“The French chose a parliament without a majority in June, it is the rule that applies to all., recalls the ecologist Benjamin Lucas.
If Emmanuel Macron dissolves, that means he thinks they voted wrong.
What about the energy context in three months?
Finally, the June legislative elections were extremely close.
Barring a few thousand votes swinging one way or the other, the result could be very different: no camp can take its capital for granted, let alone the most numerous.
“When you use a weapon like dissolution, you have to keep in mind that it has a cluster bomb side to it.
And we don't always know where the shards arrive, "philosophizes LR Philippe Gosselin, who adds:" I don't know if the artificer has all the cards in hand.
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Fear rate: 40%
Policy
Pension reform: Macron does not rule out a dissolution in the event of censorship in the Assembly, according to Dussopt
Policy
For Elisabeth Borne, La France insoumise wants “chaos” rather than answers
National Assembly
Emmanuel Macron
Dissolution
Nudes
National Rally (RN)
The Republicans (LR)
The Republic on the March (LREM)