United States: the job market towards an uncertain future despite the drop in unemployment

"We're hiring full-time," offers a sign in the town of Oceanside, California.

REUTERS - Mike Blake

Text by: RFI Follow

1 min

The job market is slowing down a bit in the United States with 263,000 job creations in September compared to 315,000 in August, but it remains solid.

The unemployment rate even fell to 3.5%, as in July, and as before the pandemic.

But paradoxically, this decline is not such good news for economists.

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This may come as a surprise, but on the other side of the Atlantic, a deterioration in the job market is expected.

Because for more than a year, due to a labor shortage, employers have been struggling to recruit.

To attract candidates, they increase salaries.

The average hourly wage is up 5% year on year in September.

And that helps drive up prices.

However, this inflation, the FED, the American central bank, tries to fight it.

It has already sharply increased its interest rates to discourage consumption and investment.

And if the job market resists monetary tightening, it is, according to economists, linked to the difficulties in recruiting last year.

Employers would be more reluctant to lay off their employees.

This

should therefore comfort the Fed in the idea of ​​a further increase in rates.

Another indicator will be scrutinized.

On Thursday, October 13, the consumer price index for September will be published.

This will allow central bankers to assess the progress made in the fight against inflation. 

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• United States

• Employment and Labor

• Company

• Economic crisis