To analyse
North Korea: understand why the country is increasing missile launches
The day after the ballistic fire launched by North Korea over Japan, Seoul and Washington in turn fired four missiles in response.
In the photo, Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, on the television news in Seoul on October 6, 2022. AP - Lee Jin-man
Text by: Louise Huet
8 mins
For the past ten days, North Korea has been practicing a show of force.
Eight ballistic missiles fired in two weeks, including one over Japan, twelve combat planes parading in the sky... In response, South Korea and the United States tighten the screw and do not hesitate to respond militarily to Pyongyang's provocations.
A usual political showdown, which allows North Korea to display its military capabilities to establish itself as a credible force.
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North Korea's arms race is clearly accelerating.
Since the beginning of the year, "
thirty ballistic missile tests have been launched by Pyongyang
", counts Antoine Bondaz, director of the Korea program at the Foundation for Strategic Research and teacher at Sciences Po. continue, since North Korea again projected two short-range missiles on Thursday, October 6, towards the Sea of Japan, two days after
sending a Hwasong-12 type missile
(at intermediate range) which flew over the Japanese island and caused the warning signal in two northern regions.
And two other ballistic missiles fired overnight from Saturday to Sunday, October 9, announced the South Korean army, quoted by the Yonhap news agency.
Opposite, Washington, Tokyo and Seoul
see it as a clear provocation
, "
absolutely unacceptable
" according to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
The two camps oppose each other in a now recurring military showdown.
But according to Antoine Bondaz, the missile tests perpetrated by North Korea are not without precedent.
For him, this military escalation remains "
for the moment, a known situation since there have already been many cycles of tension on the Korean peninsula in the past
".
These cyclical tensions allow Pyongyang to continue to develop its defensive arsenal, and "
to send a political message that says: 'We have deterrence capabilities and means of pressure to weigh against other countries'
", maintains Théo Clément, international consultant and doctoral student on the subject of North Korea.
► To read also: Korean Peninsula: “War Games” under high tension
Growing military capabilities
Military means of pressure, and a defensive panoply that has greatly expanded under the Kim Jong-un era, since 2011. “
The number of missile tests is only increasing.
There have been 170 since he came to power, whereas under his father, Kim Jong-il, there have only been about fifteen trials in fifteen years
, ”points out Antoine Bondaz.
However, the range of North Korean armaments is actually very difficult to quantify, for lack of a precise source.
“
Thanks to telemetry, we have a relative idea of the trajectories that their missiles can travel, and we calculate roughly the load that they can carry.
But it's unclear what exactly the country gets out of these tests, if they collect data to know what to improve.
We don't know the exact number of missiles either
,” asks Théo Clément.
What we do know is that North Korea has developed its military arsenal around non-conventional weapons (nuclear, radiological, biological, chemical), with the emphasis largely on nuclear.
“
The country is extremely advanced in its nuclear and ballistic capabilities.
The development of its missiles is a matter of technological prowess
”, emphasizes the doctoral student.
Its status as a nuclear power, enshrined in its Constitution in 2012, was also
declared by Kim Jong-un as “
irreversible
”
in September.
On the other hand, its conventional armament, its tanks, rifles and the weapons used by the infantry are "
very aging, even obsolete and are decades behind
", according to Théo Clément.
To compensate for this delay, North Korea has therefore chosen to focus on the most dissuasive elements, also to catch up with its neighbor, South Korea.
“
The North has above all invested in asymmetric capabilities, in the sense that there is a very strong gap between South Korea and North Korea in terms of conventional weapons.
Seoul spends far more on weapons than Pyongyang, and it has far more modern equipment.
From his point of view, the North is therefore trying to restore a form of military balance,
” explains Antoine Bondaz.
Regular and cyclical ballistic tests
But should we be worried about this period of escalation on the Korean peninsula?
For the two specialists, the repeated missile tests are actually
part of the continuity of
Pyongyang's military test campaign.
“
There have already been several test episodes this year, and if they are close in time, it is for essentially geopolitical reasons, with
Kamala Harris' visit to Seoul
, the joint military exercises of Washington, Seoul and Tokyo… But you shouldn't see anything unheard of there either
,” assures Théo Clément.
Rather than the threat of an upcoming attack, it is a show of force to prove its credibility.
“
North Korea is continuing to develop its arsenal to make its nuclear deterrent and its conventional capabilities more credible
,” emphasizes Antoine Bondaz.
For him, a military escalation with the Korean dictatorship is always cyclical: first a period of tension where the country tries to establish a positive balance of power, before potentially being able to discuss, most often through indirect dialogue via certain States intermediaries, like Sweden in 2017. Finally, a phase of negotiations and possible concessions.
“
At the moment, we are far from it.
We are in the midst of the balance of power period.
»
► To read also:
An American aircraft carrier in South Korea in a context of tensions with the North
Show his power against the enemy
North Korea maintains an almost paranoid position vis-à-vis the rest of the planet, according to Théo Clément.
“
Pyongyang is trying hard to be very powerful, but it's more, in my opinion, the result of a posture of weakness.
A way to show that if we are attacked, we can defend ourselves.
The North Koreans live with the idea that the security of the country is hanging by a thread, the propaganda hammering home that the Americans are on the verge of attacking.
There is a mirror situation where, what is projected onto North Korea in the media and political speeches, it projects itself onto the rest of the world.
»
The two experts therefore agree in thinking that these missiles serve rather to Kim Jong-un to impose himself at the table of international discussions, and to be taken seriously.
“
The idea is to remind the world that it exists, because in the end little has been said about North Korea since the start of Joe Biden's mandate.
We only talk about it when there are missile tests or major events that are staged
, ”says the researcher.
And that, Théo Clément understood it well.
A favorable context for missile tests
Benefit from attention, but also from geopolitical tensions.
Due to the international context, a window of opportunity has opened wide for North Korea to conduct its ballistic tests without too much disruption.
“
There are three factors that have benefited Pyongyang
, lists Antoine Bondaz.
Trivialization, since we tend to get used to these ballistic tests.
The distraction, as all eyes are on Ukraine.
Then there was growing disunity within the international community.
For good reason, China and Russia vetoed a draft Security Council resolution condemning North Korea last May, while the sanctions were still unanimous in 2017.
Pyongyang is thus testing the tolerance threshold of the United States and South Korea, and taking advantage of these periods of tension for opportunistic, commercial and financial purposes.
According to the American secret services,
Russia would receive weapons and military equipment
from North Korea, which the country denies.
If true, this importation would be strongly condemned by the UN.
"
North Korea
plays proximity with Russia
for neither ideological nor strategic reasons, but to circumvent sanctions more easily, where these international sanctions prevent almost 97% of North Korean exports
", argues Théo Clément.
The country is therefore violating its commitments and the resolutions of the UN Security Council with complete impunity, in the face of an almost powerless international community.
After the ballistic missiles fired this week, Seoul and Washington expect North Korea to launch a new nuclear test soon, which will never give up its possession of the atomic bomb.
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