The United States and NATO will not reciprocate

American analyst: Russia can win the war if it uses nuclear weapons

The additional mobilization of Russian forces may not make a difference on the battlefield.

Reuters

After the failure of Russian President Vladimir Putin in his initial attempt to achieve a surprise attack against Ukraine, and his subsequent campaign to annex territories in the east and west of the country, says Dr. Daniel Gorey, a military analyst and vice president of the American think-tank Lexington Center, he has discovered a way to win rather than look like a loser.

Putin's recent steps, by declaring partial mobilization and holding referendums to annex the territories under his control to Russia, are signs of the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

Gauri said, in an analysis published by the American magazine "National Interest", that if the Ukrainian forces equipped with Western weapons continue their counterattacks, they will represent a threat to the Russian motherland in the new territories newly acquired by Russia, and Putin will respond to this by doing what he has repeatedly threatened, which is Use of nuclear weapons.

Undermining Western support

Whether such use was against a target in Ukraine or merely as a show business, the effects would be the same, as such a move would undoubtedly undermine Western support for Kiev, given what is almost certain that the United States and NATO will not reciprocate, as That this step could lead to the collapse of "NATO", and basically Putin might win by losing the alliance.

Guri says Western leaders and military experts have long pondered the possibility that if Moscow fails in its conventional campaign against Ukraine, it will resort to the use of nuclear weapons, a possibility that is now almost certain.

Putin has doubled his efforts in a conventional war that he cannot win, if the ongoing engagement of forces continues. The West has begun an industrial and military expansion that increases the military balance against Russia.

Moscow has already had to seek help from the weakest allies - Iran and North Korea.

Partial mobilization of the Russian military will not provide the means to turn the situation in its favour on the battlefield, and will exacerbate opposition to Putin at home.

Escalation option

But by escalation, Putin can achieve victory both abroad and at home.

Guri explains that the Russian nuclear doctrine clearly states that if conventional aggression against Russia threatens the existence of the state, this justifies the use of nuclear weapons.

The extent to which a conventional attack exceeds this threshold has never been clearly defined.

Putin identified such an attack that threatens the existence of the state in his speech in which he announced the partial mobilization, as he affirmed his claim that the West's goal behind its support for Ukraine is to destroy Russia and threaten all the Russian people.

Putin made it clear that Russia is allowed to use nuclear weapons in order to protect the territorial integrity of the state, which will now include the annexed parts of Ukraine.

The question now is: What will NATO and the West do if Russia responds to a successful conventional attack on Ukraine with a nuclear weapon?

NATO will not respond with nuclear weapons

Gorey says that it is almost certain that NATO will not respond with a similar nuclear move, and anyone who has witnessed high-level US or NATO war games during the past decades, in which the other side used nuclear weapons against one of them, knows that it is very difficult to see Washington - not to mention the "NATO" alliance - reciprocates even if the US forces or the "NATO" forces are the target of such an attack.

Unless the attack is large-scale, teams representing the US government and "NATO" countries always resort to the option of an intense conventional campaign or retreat.

And if Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Western options will be more limited. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and is not protected by the alliance's nuclear umbrella, and Western leaders will find a response with a nuclear weapon unimaginable.

As a seasoned former US government official and former nuclear arms control negotiator said of how Washington would respond to a Russian nuclear explosion: “I don't think the United States will take an escalatory step.

It certainly will not respond with nuclear weapons.”

It can be asserted that Putin knows this.

Gorey says that Western leaders, most notably US President Joe Biden, pledged to respond to Russia's use of nuclear weapons by doubling their support for Ukraine, providing it with more and better conventional weapons, expanding economic sanctions against Russia, and trying to rally the international community to make Russia a pariah state.

That was Biden's warning in his recent speech to the United Nations General Assembly.

Essentially, the West will pursue exactly the strategy that led to Putin using nuclear weapons in the first place, and that's the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again waiting for a different outcome.

Gauri stressed that providing Ukraine with additional Western military equipment, including more HIMARS launchers, long-range missiles, advanced drones, heavy armor, and even F-16 fighters, would ensure Ukraine's ability to stop the advance of the Russian army, but that it would not end the progress of the Russian army. the war.

In fact, the possible Western reaction will be in Putin's favor, as the Russian president's start of using nuclear weapons will be met with a less than appropriate response, which shows Western weakness, and Moscow's use of nuclear weapons will pass without accountability, which shows that deterrence is meaningless, and Russia will prepare itself to use nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons again in the future.

Certainly, the balance of Putin's acceptance among his citizens will improve, and he will declare that the Russian leader who stood before the West and used nuclear weapons to defend the homeland without being confronted by anyone.

At the conclusion of his analysis, Gauri said that Putin believes that the war in Ukraine is essential to defeating the threat to Russia's existence posed by "NATO" expansion, and his efforts to find a client state in Ukraine.

In this context, the use of nuclear weapons is justified, as is the risk of Western escalation.

 If Ukrainian forces armed with Western weapons continue their counterattacks, they will pose a threat to the Russian motherland in the form of the new territories newly acquired by Russia.

If Putin uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, Western options will be more limited. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and is not protected by the alliance's nuclear umbrella, and Western leaders will find a response with a nuclear weapon unimaginable.

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