Pensions: why Emmanuel Macron puts pressure on LR above all?

Emmanuel Macron and François Bayrou at the inauguration of the Foirail Cultural Center, in Pau in the south-west of France, this Friday September 30, 2022. AFP - CAROLINE BLUMBERG

Text by: Lucile Gimberg Follow

3 mins

On the flammable issue of pensions, the French president has decided to temporize.

The executive will reopen a cycle of consultation with the unions and the political forces until Christmas.

But he brandished, at the same time, the threat to dissolve the Assembly if the oppositions still blocked his reform project.

A way to put pressure on LR.

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This threat of dissolution is aimed in particular at the Les Républicains party.

First of all, because if Emmanuel Macron dissolves the Assembly and new legislative elections are organised, of course, all the parties will tremble, in particular those of the presidential majority, but it is the traditional right that has the most to to lose.

Last June, the contingent of LR deputies fell from around a hundred under the former legislature to around sixty, and it could be even worse in the event of a new ballot.

Secondly, if the consultation on pensions does not succeed, the executive could have recourse to 49.3, a constitutional mechanism to avoid the vote of parliamentarians.

In this case, the oppositions can retaliate by presenting a motion of censure to bring down the government.

If the motion of censure came from the extremes, it would have little chance of being adopted.

But if it was the right that launched the sling, it would become more risky for macronie.

For Emmanuel Macron, it is also a story of the calendar.

Dialogue until Christmas, this makes it possible to step over the internal congress organized by LR at the beginning of December and during which the militants will appoint their new leader.

We know that these processes favor the radicalization of positions.

On the other hand, if LR members chose Eric Ciotti, the most intransigent candidate vis-à-vis the Macron camp, the pressure for dissolution would already be on the table.

.@EmmanuelMacron warns: he does not want a "dog bed": he assures that he will dissolve the Assembly if a motion of censure is voted @TF1Info @LCI

— Bastien Augey (@AugeyBastien) September 28, 2022

Agreement on substance

Finally, the head of state is also targeting LR because, in substance, they agree with his pension reform.

The right finds itself very annoyed, moreover, in particular in full campaign for the presidency of the party.

Each year, LR senators – they are the majority in the upper house – vote on their own amendment to reform the pension system and in particular to postpone the legal retirement age.

The amendment does not succeed because the balance of power in the Assembly is different.

But, as President LR of the Senate Gérard Larcher said this Friday, the inspiration of the government is not very far from that of the right at the Luxembourg Palace.

“ 

 , ”affirmed to RFI the boss of senators LR, Bruno Retailleau, from mid-September.

On the side of the LR deputies, their leader Olivier Marleix especially criticized the method.

There was a headwind against the idea of ​​the executive to force

an amendment to a budget law.

Olivier Marleix demanded that the social partners be consulted, this will ultimately be the case... He demanded that the reform consider all aspects of the pension subject, this will be the case.

Difficulty, long careers, extension of the contribution period, etc., will be on the table of discussions until Christmas.

Now that the method has changed, it will be more difficult for LR to oppose.

►To re-read: France: in the street, first warning shot against pension reform

A weak weapon

But the right is also right to say that this threat to dissolution is an admission of weakness on the part of the head of state.

Emmanuel Macron does not have an absolute majority in Parliament, he cannot run again in 2027, so mechanically, the deputies of his own majority have the space to gain autonomy.

He therefore has only this weapon to wield.

Even if the threat to dissolution looks very much like a threat that we wave, but never use.

►Read also: Pension reform: Macron delays but sets red lines

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