On the seventeenth of last July, the Chinese Navy announced the launch of (1) the third aircraft carrier of its production, during a ceremony held at the shipyard in Shanghai, the capital, the aircraft carrier was previously known as "Type 003", but it is now officially called "Fujian", named after one of China's coastal provinces, is the most powerful aircraft carrier in the world after the American aircraft carriers.
China's first two aircraft carriers (Type 001 and Type 002) were retrofits of an old Soviet model, but the Type 003 is quite different from them, with stark updates that include a more compact surface structure, with a change in the way aircraft take off, from "ski-and-jump" jump) to the Aircraft catapult.
In the catapult method an upgraded catapult is used to allow aircraft to take off from very limited spaces, such as the deck of a ship.
Fujian is the most powerful aircraft carrier in the world after the American aircraft carriers.
(communication Web-sites )
But there is an important note in this context, which is that the Chinese Navy does not resort to the traditional steam-powered catapult method, and instead uses the electromagnetic aircraft launch system, which increases the rates of flights, and occupies a smaller space than the aircraft carrier, which puts it in direct comparison With the major US aircraft carriers, especially as it is already comparable in size with the Nimitz and Ford classes of the US Navy, with a length of approximately 300 meters.
This carrier is expected to carry the latest Chinese J-35 fighter, which is the Chinese version of the American F-35C Lightning-II fighter, and Fujian can displace 80,000 tons of water, while The US Navy's giant aircraft carriers displace 100,000 tons (the strength of a ship can be assessed by the amount of water it displaces after descending into it).
The dragon is stretching
The above indicates only one thing, China is close to achieving its goals, and quickly, because “Fujian” is just an example. As these words are written, China is already the country with the largest (2) naval power in the world in terms of the number of ships and operating units, With a total of about 355 naval pieces, compared to only 300 pieces for the US Navy, these pieces range from surface combatants, submarines, aircraft carriers, ocean-going amphibious warfare ships, anti-mine ships, auxiliary ships to the fleet, and others, but the number does not include 85 of the patrol boats carrying anti-cruise missiles. for ships.
Of course, this does not mean that China is now the fiercest naval power in the whole world, because the matter is not only counted in the number, but rather in the capacity of the existing ships and the scope of their control, and this is what the United States indisputably excels in, as it owns a group of the largest (and by extension the most powerful) ships in the world All of it, and if we decide to collect the amount of water that all Chinese ships displace, which is - as we talked a while ago - a measure of strength, we will find that it amounts to two million tons in total (3), while the United States of America reaches 4.5 million tons!
Despite this, the US Navy is undoubtedly not reassuring about this difference, not only because it is shrinking day by day, but because it is shrinking rapidly.
China's ambitious plan to develop its naval power began only a quarter of a century ago, during which the number of Chinese ships steadily increased, in 2005 the difference was in favor of the United States of America by about 75 pieces, this difference narrowed until the number of Chinese ships converged with the American in 2014, then China launched to up.
At the same speed, the total combat strength of the Chinese Navy is expected to grow to 420 units by 2025, and 460 by 2030. By the same date, the US Navy is expected to have only about 345 ships, according to optimistic forecasts.
To understand the amazing volume of production, consider what happened between 2017-2019, when it was reported that China (4) built more ships than India, Japan, Australia, France and the United Kingdom combined. In 2021, German Vice Admiral Kai Achim Schönbachsied even pointed out that The Chinese navy is expanding every 4 years, equal to the size of the entire French navy.
But most intriguing is not just the number of parts, but the rates of modernization. Chinese ships, aircraft, and naval weapons are now much more modern and capable than they were in the early 1990s, and are now comparable in many respects with those of the Western navies.
In one of its statements (5), the US Department of Defense asserts that “as of 2020, the Chinese Navy consists largely of modern multi-role platforms featuring advanced anti-ship, anti-air, and anti-submarine weapons and sensors.”
And a report to the US Congress in the same context adds that "in many cases these pieces can be compared to those of the US Navy," adding shortly afterwards, "China quickly fills the gap in any areas of deficiency between it and the United States."
This appears in the rapid development of Chinese aircraft carriers, since the seventies of the last century, the Chinese Navy had ambitions to develop and operate aircraft carriers, but its actual plans began in 1985 when it acquired four retired aircraft carriers for study, one of which has already turned into Type 001, and in just ten years From its launch (in 2012), we have reached a more advanced aircraft carrier that is close to American capabilities, as we mentioned a while ago in the case of "Fujian", and the number of Chinese aircraft carriers is expected to double by 2030. On the other hand, the United States of America has reached what it is Now after a long journey that began in the early part of the last century, and developed radically after the Second World War, it now owns 11 aircraft carriers.
In the same context, the RAND Corporation, which provides analytical data for the US Army, reported that, based on contemporary standards for ship production, more than 70% of the Chinese Navy fleet in 2017 is considered updated compared to 50% in 2010, in addition to that, China produces ships. Larger able to accommodate more sophisticated weapons.
For example, the Chinese Navy's first Type 055 (also called Renhai-class) corvettes (large destroyer ships) entered service in 2019, and the combat capabilities of the ships of this type increased by 4,000 to 5,000 tons at once, when compared with the destroyer of the type 052D, which entered service with the Chinese Navy in 2014.
The cruiser "Type 055" (also called the Renhai class) (networking sites)
Underwater without a leader
Besides aircraft carriers, cruisers or other surface combatant ships that are already witnessing amazing development, there is great development emerging in the submarine range as well.
China now operates a small number of nuclear-powered and ballistic missile-capable attack submarines, so China is now giving a high priority to modernizing its submarine force, and is likely to produce submarines at a rate that by 2030 will make it the number one country in the world in terms of the number of submarines (76 Submarine).
but that is not all.
Currently, the Chinese navy is competing with the United States of America in a completely new scope, which is unmanned underwater vehicles (or the more famous name "water drone"), where satellite images (6) days ago revealed two of those submarines. The unmanned operator on the pier at a Chinese naval base in Hainan, in the South China Sea.
We do not know much about the two submarines yet, but one of them is about 16 meters in length, and the second is about 18 meters, and they thus join a rare class of the very large unmanned vehicle, and they compete for the lead with a promising American project, the submarine "Orca XLUV", which is under Now under development by Boeing, the expected length of this submarine is 16 metres.
***BREAKING***#China's Secret Extra-Large Submarine Drone Program Revealed
China's naval expansion may have a key program which was not previously reported.
Deployed to the South China Sea, 2 unknown underwater vehicles at Sanya naval base.
#OSINThttps://t.co/MAu99g3DHY
— HI Sutton (@CovertShores) September 16, 2022
This type of vehicle is the future of diving. As drones replace manned aircraft day after day, the same is expected to happen soon with submarines as well. Currently, these submarine drones are already used in many countries for the purposes of detecting and disposing of underwater mines, as well as for intelligence purposes. These submarines provide wider coverage at a lower cost with higher data quality.
The future is full of military uses for this type of submarines. Like drones, it starts with employing them in the reconnaissance range, then with time they become combat submarines that are used in all sea battles, because they are cheaper in material cost, not to mention they avoid human losses.
If this information is correct, China is already competing for the lead with the United States in a modern technology that has not yet emerged, and China may have an ambitious future plan to use it primarily in its naval forces, partially replacing manned submarines.
Access ban
Despite all these capabilities, nothing can show the pace of Chinese naval development like anti-ship missiles, as Beijing is now deploying two types of land-based ballistic missiles with the ability to strike ships at sea, the first is the DF-21D. ) with a range of more than 1,500 km, and the second is “DF-26” with a maximum range of about 4,000 km (7,8), and the US Department of Defense says that it is “capable of carrying out precise strikes, both conventional and nuclear, against land and sea targets. (9).
DF-26, China's anti-ship ballistic missile.
(Social Media)
Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles have caused widespread concern among American experts and observers, simply because they can completely change the rules of the game. These missiles, along with updated surveillance and targeting systems, will allow China to attack American aircraft carriers or the huge ships of its allies in the Western Pacific.
At this point, China is developing a complete system, in addition to ballistic missiles, that allows it to implement the policy of denial of access.
In December 2013, the US destroyer USS Cowpens was sailing across the South China Sea when a sudden voice sounded on the radio saying, "You are violating China's security space, you must leave the area!"(10) The few hours following this warning, and due to the successive push and pull between the American and Chinese forces, we would have already been on the brink of a limited naval battle had the American destroyer not finally made its way.
Compare this with what happened in 1996 when elections were held in Taiwan and two US aircraft carrier forces stood on the island's borders without any possible interference from Chinese forces, simply because at this time they did not have sufficient capacity to implement the strategy of the "no access zone"(11) (China's) Anti-Access Area Denial), which means that the best way to control a distant adversary, especially if it is superior in overall military power, is to prevent it from deploying its forces to the theater of conflict in the first place.
China is currently focusing on the use of its anti-ship ballistic missiles, and others such as air defense cruise missiles, and its various ships, especially the highly modernized models of surface fighters, amphibious ships, and its maritime surveillance systems, in building a strict no-access zone consisting of three lines, and its borders reach the so-called The “first island chain” is the first group of archipelagos in the Pacific Ocean that meets East Asia, starting from northern Indonesia, passing through the Philippines and all the way to Japan.
At this pace, by 2030, China will be able to tighten control over this area, and the ships of the Chinese Navy will move freely in it, and foreign forces, whoever they are, will be prevented from freely disposing of it.
Indeed, since 2008, no US aircraft carrier has actually approached Taiwan.
This gives us an additional glimpse into China's naval plans. Although its capabilities are less than that of the United States, the latter is spread in almost all of the world, while China is focusing on one goal so far, which is to control the international waters surrounding it, which it considers, in one way or another, her backyard.
What China currently has in naval forces, and what it intends to acquire by 2030, allows it to do so.
A century of humiliation, a century of anger
As for the relatively longer term, and by 2050, it is believed that the Chinese Navy will become a real match for the US Navy, and thus extend its arms beyond the first island chain to the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It means wide political control, simply because 40% of the population of this planet lives within 100 kilometers of a beach, and we have not yet talked about controlling the movement of merchant ships globally.
But all of the above carries a deeper historical and geopolitical context, for the Chinese Navy is not only a necessary military control tool, but - for China - it is also a restitution tool, not only for what happened from the US naval forces around Taiwan in the 1990s at a time when China had no way To intervene, but on "One Hundred Years of National Humiliation", a term already used in China to describe the period of intervention and subjugation of the country by Western powers and Japan from 1839 to 1949, a period the Chinese call the "century of humiliation".
During that period, most of those attacking forces entered China by sea, and because the century of humiliation is an essential part (12) of the narrative that represents the identity of contemporary China, this "maritime concern" that lasted for more than a hundred years must result in a reaction to same level.
We can call this century the "century of wrath" for China, and no one knows how much the dragon's wrath will change the face of the world.
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Sources:
1- China launches third aircraft carrier, named after province opposite Taiwan
2- Yes, China Has More Warships Than The USA.
That's Because Chinese Ships Are Small.
3- The previous source
4- How is China Modernizing its Navy?
5. China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (RL33153)
6- China's New Extra-Large Submarine Drones Revealed
7- DF-26 (Dong Feng-26)
8- DF-21 (Dong Feng-21)
9- China Naval Modernization: Implications for US Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (RL33153)
10- The Next Warm War: How History's Anti-Access/Area Denial Campaigns Inform the Future of War
11- Previous source
12- The “Century of Humiliation” and China's National Narratives