With the victory of Giorgia Meloni, Italy could take the lead of an ultra-conservative front in Europe with Hungary and Poland, but such an alliance will quickly find its limits, especially around the Ukrainian question and the positioning towards Moscow. .

Tellingly, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Polish counterpart Mateusz Morawiecki were the first to hail the victory of the post-fascist Italian leader after the legislative elections on Sunday.

Hungary and Poland "more than delighted with this election"

"We need friends more than ever who share a common vision and approach to Europe," exclaimed Budapest, while Warsaw hailed the "great victory" of the Italian far right.

In fact, "Hungary and Poland are more than delighted with this election", summarizes Yordan Bozhilov, director of the Bulgarian think tank Sofia Security Forum.

The victory of the extreme right in one of the founding countries of the European Union should reduce the isolation of Budapest and Warsaw, in conflict with Brussels on issues of the rule of law.

"Meloni's victory will reduce the pressure on their own countries within the EU, and pave the way for a more united front," said Yordan Bozhilov.

"The European right is getting stronger"

After the strong breakthrough of the extreme right in Sweden in the September legislative elections, the victory of Giorgia Meloni in a country which is also the third largest economy in the EU gives wings to the ultra-conservatives.

Rome, Budapest and Warsaw are very close on societal issues, joining in their anti-Islam, anti-immigration, anti-abortion and anti-LGBT positions.

“The European right is getting stronger… We will defeat the communists, leftists and the LGBT lobby – all those who are ruining our civilization,” as Polish Deputy Agriculture Minister Janusz Kowalski summed up on Twitter on Monday.

The EU's "spoilers, traffic jammers"

The three countries also find themselves in their conception of a Christian, white Europe, made up of sovereign nations.

“Hungary and Poland are countries that want to change Europe from within, and they don't hide it.

They have not succeeded so far but there will undoubtedly be an attempt to make a Rome/Budapest/Warsaw axis,” says Tara Varma, director of the Paris office of the ECFR (European Council on foreign relations).

For her, these three countries, which have no intention of leaving the EU "given the absolute counter-example that was Brexit", can nevertheless be the "spoilers, the obstacles to going around in circles". of the EU.

“One step forward, two steps back, they can prevent the Union from moving forward, while continuing to benefit from Community funds”.

Ukraine and sanctions

But the “values” front is in danger of rapidly splitting on the burning issue of the war in Ukraine and EU policy vis-à-vis Moscow.

“At some point, Meloni will have to choose between Poland and Hungary,” summarizes Tara Varma.

The Italian official has clearly displayed her positions, pro-Ukrainian, in favor of European sanctions against Moscow, Atlanticist.

A position aligned with that of Warsaw, but very far from that of Viktor Orban, who has forged close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent years, and is very critical, even opposed, to European sanctions against Moscow.

Despite his allies with pro-Russian positions, Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Salvini, Giorgia Meloni, whose Fratelli d'Italia party dominates the right-wing coalition, should not change his position on Ukraine, his partners hope.

Meloni “very aware of the problems of the Italians”

"Regarding foreign policy, from what we know, Giorgia Meloni is in favor of sanctions against Russia and Fratelli d'Italia is closer to the Polish PiS than to the Hungarian Fidesz", estimates the Hungarian analyst Patrik Szicherle.

For Martin Quencez, of the German Marshall Fund, Giorgia Meloni "sent the right messages about Ukraine", particularly to the United States, for which Italy is a crucial partner within NATO.

For her part, Giorgia Meloni “has every interest in having good relations with Brussels and not entering into a frontal conflict”, analyzes Paolo Modugno, professor of Italian civilization at Sciences Po Paris.

“She is very aware of the problems of Italians, their anxiety about inflation and the economic situation.

Its urgency is to face the crisis, not to embark on an ideological adventure, ”he believes.

For all analysts, the appointment of sovereign ministers, particularly for Finance and Foreign Affairs, will be a crucial indicator of the attitude that Giorgia Meloni intends to adopt in Europe.

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  • Giorgia Meloni

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  • European Union (EU)