Mithat Sancar considers a change of power in the next elections in Turkey to be "very likely".

The prediction comes as no great surprise from his lips, after all, as co-chairman of the pro-Kurdish HDP party, Sancar is a leading opposition politician.

Parliamentary and presidential elections must be held on the same day by June 2023.

For Sancar, the outcome depends less on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's popularity than on how his opponents behave:

Rainer Herman

Editor in Politics.

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The key question for a change of power is how the six opposition parties, who have formed an alliance this time, behave towards the HDP, explains Sancar in an interview with the FAZ. The HDP would therefore be willing to support a common opposition candidate, provided that the negotiations are open would be held and the principles of the future system of government and the transition would be agreed.

Otherwise, the HDP will enter the election with its own candidate.

Polls see opposition parties at more than 60 percent

In any case, the opposition is called upon to present a "strong alternative program" to the policies of the ruling AKP.

According to surveys, the seven opposition parties together accounted for more than 60 percent.

With that they could defeat Erdogan in the first round.

The local elections in spring 2019 showed, says Sancar, that Erdogan, who has been in power since 2002, is no longer invincible.

But without the HDP, a change of power would be “very difficult,” says the party leader.

However, the HDP is threatened with a ban, and proceedings are pending before the Constitutional Court.

But Sancar is unimpressed.

The party is determined to take part in the elections.

The verdict only depends on the form in which this is done.

The HDP is currently the third largest parliamentary group after the AKP and the CHP.

In the event of a ban shortly before the election, one is prepared.

Polls see the HDP at 12 to 15 percent.

"We take our responsibility for millions of people seriously," says Sancar.

The Attorney General had already submitted an indictment to the Constitutional Court in March 2021, which was initially rejected.

In June, however, it accepted a new version.

It accuses the HDP of “terrorist activities” – which the party firmly denies.

Sancar explains the remaining procedural steps and explains that a judgment could be issued in four to five months at the earliest.

But Erdogan will probably decide when the 15 constitutional judges decide on the HDP - after all, the President appointed eight of them.

Sancar therefore expects a decision shortly before the elections.

HDP mayors are regularly deposed

The banning process is just one aspect of the repression the HDP is facing.

Elected mayors from their ranks are regularly deposed and replaced by state administrators, and several hundred HDP officials and members have been arrested.

In addition, the government is trying to establish a connection between the ban procedure and the so-called Kobane process in the public discourse.

It is about rallies in the summer of 2014, at which an intervention by Turkey in favor of the Syrian border town of Kobane, inhabited by Kurds and threatened by the terrorist militia "Islamic State" at the time, was demanded.

108 members of the HDP were charged, including former leader Selahattin Demirtas.

The indictment is "absurd," says Sancar, the whole process politically motivated.

The procedural rights of the accused are being trampled on, complains Sancar, who used to teach law, including in Germany.

The defense only had one day to read the indictment, which ran to several thousand pages and contained tens of thousands of alleged pieces of evidence.

Witnesses appointed by the public prosecutor's office gave contradicting testimonies, but cross-examination was not permitted.

"We are not a criminal organization, as the government claims," ​​says Sancar.

One is aware of the responsibility not to cultivate an enemy image oneself, but to parry the attacks with "democratic maturity and political determination".

Despite all the challenges, Sancar is optimistic.

Even after two decades of AKP rule, the collective conscience and sense of justice in Turkish society have not yet been fundamentally destroyed.