A week before the presidential election, Brazil is entering the home stretch of an ultra-polarized electoral campaign summing up to a merciless duel between Jair Bolsonaro and Lula, whose election in the first round seems possible.

If 11 candidates line up at the start, it is the fight between the former left-wing president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (47% of voting intentions according to the latest Datafolha poll) and the far-right president Jair Bolsonaro (33 %) which captures the attention.

"We need to talk to the undecided and those who are considering not going to vote," Lula said at a rally on Sunday in front of thousands of supporters at the Portela samba school in Rio.

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It is with consistency that opinion polls have for months granted a third mandate to lead the first power in Latin America to Lula, president from 2003 to 2010 and leader of the Workers' Party (PT, left).

Rally to Lula

The former steelworker had left power with stratospheric approval rates (87%), before experiencing disgrace in prison for corruption (2018-2019) and being prevented from representing himself.

His election, at 76, would mark a remarkable comeback.

It has a dynamic.

“Polls say there is a real possibility that Lula will win in the first round” of October 2, notes Fernanda Magnotta, analyst at the FAAP foundation in Sao Paulo.

Lula could benefit from the "useful vote" if "the voters of less competitive candidates such as Ciro Gomes migrate to him", she explains, about the center-left candidate, 3rd in the polls (7%) ahead of Simone Tebet ( centre-right, 5%).

The much talked about "useful vote" has become the dominant theme of Lula's campaign.

In recent days, Lula has surfed on a wave of support: ex-president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2003) asked Brazilians to vote "for democracy", his ex-minister of the Environment Marina Silva joined him after a long estrangement.

Left-wing politicians and intellectuals in Latin America called on Ciro Gomes to step down to facilitate Lula's victory.

But on Friday, Jair Bolsonaro, 67, of the Liberal Party (PL), assured during a meeting in Minas Gerais (south-east): "We will win in the 1st round".

"God willing, we will win in the first round," he repeated live on social media on Sunday.

"The other side does not bring the people together in the street, how would he win in the first round? It seems difficult to me... no: impossible. Period," added the outgoing president.

"Electoral Fraud"

On Telegram, Bolsonarist networks are campaigning to explain that if their champion is not elected on October 2, it is because the election will have been fraudulent.

The fear of a Brazilian remake of the assault on the Capitol is on everyone's mind.

"It can be dangerous", says Fernanda Magnotta, "Bolsonaro will most likely invoke electoral fraud, like Donald Trump, it will galvanize his supporters."

Because the ex-captain of the Army can count on battalions of supporters ready for anything.

He himself has several times violently attacked the institutions of the young Brazilian democracy, such as the Supreme Court, and led a virulent campaign against electronic ballot boxes, which he believes promote "fraud".

But suddenly lowering his tone, this unpredictable president also declared that if he lost, he would retire from politics.

It is therefore impossible to predict the sequence of events on the evening of the first round.

Bolsonaro and Lula's campaign was marked more by personal attacks - "thief", "incompetent" - than by the presentation of programs.

The daily O Globo called on Lula on Saturday to propose "a coherent economic project", because "if he wins, no one knows how he will govern".

The week that opens will see the sworn enemies throw their last forces into battle, with big meetings and, on Thursday, a highly anticipated televised debate, where, unlike Saturday, Lula should be present.

With AFP

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