The right wins the elections in Italy

• Keys to the elections 600 seats, an impossible law and the prize for coalitions

The right has won the Italian elections and is poised to

.

The polls, with a record abstention, also open the door for the hardest right, that of

to arrive at Palazzo Chigi for the first time in history, closing forever an era, the one that the Republic inaugurated on the

with the ashes of World War II still smoldering.

The exit polls, in line with all the polls in recent weeks, point to a clear victory for the so-called center-right coalition (Brothers of Italy, Liga, Forza Italia) with around 43.5% of the votes.

's Democratic Party

with the ecologists and the split led by

would achieve 27.5% and the Five Star Movement, which chose to concur in solidarity, between 15 and 18%.

The Terzo Polo, the centrist option of former Prime Minister

and Carlo Calenda would go next with about 8% of the vote.

According to RAI, Forza Italia would have between 22 and 26% in the Chamber of Deputies.

The PD, from 17 to 21%.

Five Stars, from 13.5 to 17.5.

The Lega, from 8.5 to 12.5.

And the Terzo Polo, from 6.5 to 8.5, like Forza Italia.

Mediaset's is very similar, with Fratelli between 22.5 and 26.5 and the PD with 17-21%.

The percentage of votes, however, is misleading.

On that basis, the union of the left, the center left and the center would be above, but the Italian system is mixed, part majority and part proportional, and the experts' estimates indicate that with these forks the right would obtain or at least would touch the absolute majority.

The RAI fork gives between

But even if it were so, there is nothing firm either.

In the coming weeks, the parties must negotiate to choose the presidency of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, and then President

will consult with all the forces and appoint the person who has the most possibilities to try to form an Executive.

It could be Meloni or it could be from the right, most likely, but it could be the opposite.

To know the

with the counting of votes from abroad.

And for the palatial outcome at least until the end of October or the beginning of November.

The "Party of Abstention"

Participation,

has fallen to unprecedented levels, also in line with the apathy and palpable lack of interest in recent months.

The right had multiplied efforts because it feared that theirs would stay at home, and the left had made a huge effort in the south in recent weeks to try to push the schools, but the result has been disastrous.

In cities like Naples, participation has remained at 40%.

The 'Party of Abstention' is stronger than all the others and the results show that, once again, the inability of the fragmented left to appear united, even when announcing the arrival of the wolf, is devastating

The result, although expected, is a remarkable turnaround.

The last time the right won the elections and was able to take its leader alone to Palazzo Chigi was with Silvio Berlusconi, who fell in 2011 and has not left the opposition.

Since then they had all been technocratic rulers (

or leftists (

,

or

), even if the Lega was part of the latter's team.

In 2018 the elections were won by Cinque Stelle, which reached 32.7% of the votes.

Four years and a Mario Draghi later they sink according to the final estimates to 18%.

The Democratic Party, second in 2018, remains at the same levels, about 18%.

The Lega, which with a more vigorous Salvini then reached 17.4%, would now drop almost by half, transferring its bases to Meloni.

And the same thing happens to Berlusconi, who would drop from around 14% of the last generals to 7%, approximately

Brothers of Italy, created in 2012 by Meloni, who was a deputy of the National Alliance of Gianfranco Fini and Minister of Youth with Berlusconi, has revolutionized the panorama.

In 2018 he got just over 4% of the votes, just above the minimum threshold to achieve representation, but now he has prevailed by multiplying those results by five.

A party of post-fascist origin, inspiration and still reminiscences that

in recent times and has been able to

frustration and exhaustion of citizens.

However, victory at the polls is only the first part, and not necessarily the most difficult.

Now the negotiations are opening and in that role Fratelli does not have the experience of his allies and his rivals.

The coalition wants the presidency of both chambers, but that requires diplomatic skill and knowing how to coordinate sensitivities and distribute positions.

Berlusconi, back from everything, was recorded this Sunday with some supporters saying that Salvini was "good, but he has never worked", and outlining himself as a doller in the shadow of the movements.

"

he assured.

The legista, fitting in well, responded shortly after on social networks: "whatever Silvio says, I love him the same."

But those good relations, spurred by victory, few believe they can last long.

Today a new phase opens, but also begins the countdown to the fall of the Executive that has not yet been born.

Contemporary history says that governments last an average of just over a year, regardless of their composition, and the interests and ambitions of their members are always irreconcilable.

shock in Europe

The victory of the hard right, of the extreme right, is a shock in Italy but it could be an earthquake for the European Union.

Meloni not only boasts of his sympathies for Viktor Orban and a deliberate ambiguity towards Vladimir Putin's Russia, but also advocates a smaller Union, which returns powers to the states.

A "Europe of Nations".

It is joined in the coalition by the Lega de Salvini, which is part of the most radical group in the European Parliament, Identity and Democracy, and which this week demonstrated in the center of Rome at the headquarters of the European Commission calling for the resignation of its president, Ursula von der Leyen.

And then there is Forza Italia, the party that has set itself up as a "guarantee of Europeanism", but whose supreme leader, Silvio Berlusconi,

In Brussels they fear and foresee strong clashes on economic issues, on migration issues and a possible clamp with Hungary and perhaps even Poland on the question of the rule of law, an ideological alliance that can block issues, veto sanctions and force the withdrawal of certain common positions .

In the last year and a half, with Draghi, everything has been very placid and the Union is preparing for the turbulence to return, but this time not in a moment of calm, but in the midst of a war and with a major energy crisis.

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• Articles Pablo R. Suanzes