Legislative in Italy: a day of voting with a potentially historic outcome

Posters with the names of the candidates for the legislative elections are hung in a polling station in Rome, September 24, 2022. AP - Alessandra Tarantino

Text by: RFI Follow

4 mins

Italian voters are expected at the polls this Sunday, September 25 for legislative elections where the far right is announced in the lead, while abstention could reach an unprecedented level.

Advertising

Read more

If the trend that the polls suggest is confirmed, Italy will have its most right-wing government since the end of the Second World War at the end of this Sunday's election and will be governed for the first time by a woman. .

While it had barely collected 4% of the vote in 2018, Georgia Meloni's post-fascist Fratelli d'Italia party is credited with 24 to 25% of voting intentions by the latest surveys carried out two weeks ago.

If it comes to power, however, it will not be without the support of its allies from the conservative bloc: Matteo Salvini's League (given at 12%) and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia (8%), movements with which differences appeared during the campaign.

If necessary, Giorgia Meloni will have to deal with a difficult political situation, whether it be soaring energy costs, public debt, the risk of recession or the fallout from the conflict in Ukraine.

It could also have to overcome an unforeseen pitfall and end up with a narrower majority than expected, or even no majority at all, which would prolong the period of instability that Italy has been experiencing at regular intervals for decades.

Because in recent days, the League, constantly attacked for its close ties with Vladimir Putin, has stalled while the populists of the 5 Star Movement are recovering.

Strong abstention expected

This election will in any case close a rather dull electoral campaign which will not have aroused the enthusiasm of the Italians, to whom no televised debate has been offered.

As a result, abstention could exceed 30% in this election, according to analysts, a high figure for the country.

The majority of voters who do not move say they are not interested in politics or do not recognize themselves in the offer.

“ 

, ”says Alberto, 64, to our correspondent in Rome,

.

If this political disengagement is a choice for many, abstention is also sometimes suffered in Italy.

For lack of a proxy voting system, 5 million voters, blocked by studies or a job in a city other than their place of electoral registration, do not go to the polls.

“

,” confesses Saverio, a waiter in the capital.  

While the participation rate has collapsed by nearly 10 points in 10 years in Italy, another unknown factor also weighs on the outcome of the election, in particular on the announced triumph of the sovereigntist coalition led by Giorgia Meloni: there would be 20 % undecided.

Voters who will choose at the last moment which camp to give their vote to lead Italy.

A closely scrutinized ballot in Brussels

But even before the results, the Europeans already regret Mario Draghi bitterly, notes our correspondent in Brussels,

.

Asked about the threats that Fratelli d'Italia and the Northern League would represent for European values, the President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen thus imprudently drew a parallel with the procedures initiated against Poland and Hungary for the respect of the rule of law.

These statements are all the more surprising since the Commission usually avoids giving rise to accusations of interference in national politics.

The posture vis-à-vis the Kremlin is also a source of concern for the maintenance of European unanimity.

Solidarity with NATO since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine under the leadership of Mario Draghi, Rome has traditionally maintained cordial relations with Moscow.

Atlanticist, Giorgia Meloni has for her part taken clear positions in favor of support for Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and the sending of arms to kyiv.

But his ally Matteo Salvini is pushing for an easing of sanctions against Moscow, which he considers ineffective and counterproductive, while deeming the invasion of Ukraine “unjustifiable”.

Silvio Berlusconi meanwhile raised controversy by declaring Thursday evening that Vladimir Putin had been “pushed” by his people to invade Ukraine.

Faced with the outcry caused by his latest remarks, he reaffirmed on Friday his "

 " to NATO and the EU.

Time bomb

The EU's biggest fears, however, are economic and linked to far-right fiscal promises.

Brussels considers them far-fetched and dangerous for a country that is bent under a colossal public debt.

At 150% of GDP, its public debt is a time bomb for the euro zone, of which Italy is a systemic economy.

Some temper these fears by pointing out that Italian coalitions never survive for very long.

But it is precisely this instability that Europeans fear above all.

Polling stations will open Sunday at 7 a.m. (5 a.m. GMT) and will close at 11 p.m.

Full results are not expected until Monday morning.

(

)

Newsletter

Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox

I subscribe

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

• Italy