Presented as an essential step to reform the country before the holding of elections, the "inclusive and sovereign national dialogue" (DNIS) in Chad, promised by Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, after the death of his father and his seizure of power in April 2021, should deliver its conclusions on September 30.

Despite laborious preparatory negotiations, this high mass, which began on August 20, remains boycotted by two of the three most powerful rebel movements as well as by the country's main opposition coalition.

A transition… renewable

Accused by the opposition of having led a coup in April 2021, but dubbed by the international community, the new leader of Chad had pledged to return power to civilians after an 18-month transition - i.e. until October 2022 – renewable once in the event of failure of the reconciliation dialogue established before the holding of elections.

While the African Union had demanded respect for the transition schedule, the Chadian authorities had finally announced that the national dialogue would be held at the end of 2021, and that the elections would take place between June and September.

Or before the 18-month limit.

Several reforms were then put in place to facilitate dialogue with the opposition forces, such as the lifting of the ban on demonstrations as well as two general amnesty laws for Chadian rebel and opposition groups.

But while preparatory consultations have been organized in the provinces and abroad, the inclusive national dialogue has been delayed.

The political opposition keeps up the pressure

For this "inclusive and sovereign national dialogue", the transitional authorities wanted to ensure the participation of members of civil society and political parties, many of whom consider themselves marginalized in this country ruled for decades by the military.

But the main opposition platform, Wakit Tama, ended its discussions with the junta five months ago, which it considers "illegitimate".

In particular, she criticizes Mahamat Idriss Déby for maintaining the vagueness as to his possible candidacy for the elections, while the transition must lead to a return of civilians to power.

Despite the increased repression against its activists and the banning of demonstrations, Wakit Tama has called for new popular mobilizations.

“There are two oppositions in Chad: one is opponent, the other is co-opted,” explains Thierry Vircoulon, associate researcher at the Africa Center of IFRI.

"Wakit Tama is well aware that the inclusive national dialogue represents a political trap for her. By boycotting the discussions, this coalition refuses to play the game of the junta with its sights set on the elections in which it hopes to achieve a good performance. On the other hand, the transitional authorities are playing for time. They want to make sure that they have enough control of the situation to win this election".

At the beginning of September, the Catholic Church also withdrew from the national dialogue, considering itself reduced to a role of "figuration", followed by the Protestant Church.

An agreement with the rebels gave birth in pain

Another key player, and not the least important, are the armed rebel groups.

Some, refugees abroad, demanded guarantees to return to Chad to take part in the exchanges, as well as the release of their detained members.

An agreement was reached in early August in Doha, after five long months of negotiations, between the transitional authorities and around forty rebel groups.

But one of the main armed factions, the Front pour l'alternance et la concorde au Tchad (FACT), responsible for the attack which caused the death of Marshal Idriss Déby Itno, refused to participate, denouncing "a dialogue biased in advance".

Negotiations with armed groups are particularly difficult because they risk "legitimizing some of these entities, sometimes accused of serious abuses, and could allow them to claim a political role within the institutions" warned Jean-Claude Felix-Tchicaya, expert of the Sahel and researcher at the Institute for Prospective and Security in Europe (Ipse).

Initially scheduled for September 20, the end of the work of the “inclusive and sovereign national dialogue” has been postponed to September 30.

No provisional timetable has yet been announced for the holding of the elections.

>> To read also: The head of diplomacy resigns in full dialogue of national reconciliation

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