The current situation is in the interest of “consecrating division”
The escalation of international and regional involvement in the Libyan conflict, amid attempts to overcome the crisis
The militia war sowed chaos in the country.
Reuters
Rebuilding what was destroyed by the war is a daunting task.
Reuters
The struggle for influence of Western countries and Russia disrupts the chances of a solution in Libya.
Getty
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The external factor has become a decisive determinant in the developments of the scene in light of the political and military stalemate, which dominates the Libyan file.
The recent period has witnessed an escalation of international and regional involvement in the Libyan crisis, in light of the intense moves by these actors to reach new arrangements to resolve the current political crisis.
Differing international position
The current international position on the Libyan file is characterized by variation and uncertainty. The limits of the ongoing international engagement in Libya can be monitored as follows:
1- American pressure
The United States is currently exerting strong pressure on the parties to the Libyan crisis to achieve the constitutional base and pave the way for holding elections as a priority, which was clarified in the intense meetings held by the US Ambassador to Libya, Richard Norreland, and the US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf, with the Libyan parties. .
Washington is still sticking to its approach based on establishing the fait accompli, until the parliamentary and presidential elections are held, i.e. maintaining the presence of two competing governments, with each of them taking responsibility for holding the elections in the geographical area it controls, but provided that the internal conflict does not escalate to the level of military confrontations, which is what It was explicitly expressed by the US ambassador to Libya.
2- The continuation of Russian influence
Despite Russia's preoccupation with the current Ukrainian war, it has, at last, returned many of the Russian Wagner elements to Libya again, as their number is now estimated at 5,000 soldiers, and Libya will turn into an arena of competition between Russia and the United States during the coming period, especially after the overthrow of the Russian Federation. The American drone, NQ-9 Reaper, with a Russian weapon, was flying near the Libyan army command center in the Rajma area in eastern Libya, and was conducting reconnaissance operations regarding the activities of Wagner elements in Libya.
Moscow is currently working to strengthen its presence in Libya to use it as a pressure card on the West on the one hand, and to take it as a fulcrum to strengthen Russian influence in the African coast.
3- Confused European role
European influence in Libya has declined recently due to the unilateral policies pursued by European countries towards it, which are often characterized by competition and conflicting roles, especially between France and Italy.
The European position became more confused due to preoccupation with the repercussions of the Ukrainian war on the internal situation.
Italy and France still play an influential role in Libya.
Rome is focusing on increasing its share of Libyan oil and gas, which was clearly reflected in the last meeting that brought together Dabaiba with the Italian ambassador to Libya, Giuseppe Buccino.
On the other hand, Paris seeks to strengthen its presence in Libya through the support of Bashagha, as his last attempt to enter the capital, Tripoli, was coordinated and supported by a president from France.
4- Activating the international role
The United Nations was recently able to appoint a new UN envoy in Libya, the Senegalese diplomat, Abdullah Betley, after a stumbling block for about nine months, which may push towards activating the international role in the Libyan file during the coming period.
The selection of Betley was based on Russian, Chinese and African pressures.
Some reports also hinted that the selection of Betley enjoys French support as well, given the strong relations that Paris has with the Senegalese diplomat since he assumed the position of deputy UN envoy to the MINUSMA mission in Mali in 2013.
Growing regional involvement
The growing volume of regional involvement in the Libyan file at the present time, which can be monitored as follows:
1- Turkish mediation moves
Ankara maintained its neutral position regarding the conflict between Dabaiba and Bashagha, as it hosted them, on September 2, after the Tripoli clashes at the end of last August, and held separate meetings with each of them at the Turkish intelligence headquarters.
The current Turkish approach towards Libya depends on its openness to all parties, to ensure that its interests are maximized, and work to reach political consensus, while refusing to change the status quo by force. Repelled the advance of the armed groups of Bashagha towards Tripoli.
2- Egyptian support for the constitutional process
Egypt is currently focusing on making progress on the constitutional basis that will organize the upcoming elections.
In this context, Cairo received in August the Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, Aqila Saleh, and the President of the Supreme Council of State, Khaled Al-Mashri, following the latter’s visit to Ankara, as Egypt seeks to crystallize understandings between Saleh and Al-Mashri on the constitutional base, with Cairo upholding the legitimacy of the Pashaga government. Assigned by Parliament, and the end of the Dabaiba government’s term, which was clearly reflected in the withdrawal of the Egyptian delegation, on the sixth of September, from the meetings of the Arab League, in protest against Najla Al-Manqoush, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Dabaiba government, occupying the seat of Libya during the current session of the League.
3- Maghreb rivalry
The Libyan file represents one of the most prominent priorities of Algeria’s foreign policy at the present time, as the latter is trying to enhance its presence in this file, which was reflected in its reception of Dabaiba in April 2022, as well as the visit of its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Najla Al-Manqoush, to Algeria last July. The appointment of an ambassador to Libya last year, after it reopened its embassy in Tripoli, which it had closed in May 2014, while the Dabaiba government appointed its ambassador to Algeria in August 2022, the parliamentarian, Muhammad Himma Bakda, after this position had been vacant since 2018.
Algeria is the only country that explicitly recognizes the legitimacy of the Dabaiba government, and seeks, through its strong relations with him, to enhance its economic influence in western Libya.
Tunisia has become closer to the Algerian position on the current conflict in Libya, after Tunisia was earlier closer to supporting the Bashagha government, and this appears to be the result of the growing understandings between Algeria and Tunisia.
Possible internal setbacks
In light of the complex network of external engagement in the Libyan interior, a number of possible repercussions of this engagement on the internal scene can be observed, as follows:
1- Supporting the path of the constitutional rule
It is likely that the coming period will witness an increased focus on the constitutional path, and an attempt to forge consensus between the House of Representatives and the state that paves the way for the formulation of a constitutional basis that will be relied upon to hold presidential and parliamentary elections, especially in light of the current American pressures.
2- Create a new roadmap
Some estimates indicated that there are current moves to present a new road map during the coming period, in light of the current relative consensus in the relations of the regional powers active in the Libyan file.
It seems that there is an American perception regarding the features of this map, which was expressed by Washington's ambassador to Libya, and therefore the new UN envoy could lead, during the next stage, the process of consultations to present this new map.
Constitutional Path
It seems that the regional and international role has become influential in the developments of the Libyan scene at the present time, in a way that may help reach consensus regarding the constitutional path and holding early elections, while trying to prevent the two competing governments from resorting to military force to resolve the ongoing power struggle.
It is noted that consensus on the constitutional path will not be an easy process, especially in light of the failure of previous efforts, which means the continuation of two parallel governments in Libya in the foreseeable future.
The current Turkish approach towards Libya depends on its openness to all parties, to ensure the maximization of its interests there, and work to reach political consensus, while refusing to change the status quo by force.
Egypt is currently focusing on making progress on the constitutional basis, which will organize the upcoming elections.
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