The calculus behind the planned "referendums" in the breakaway and occupied areas of Ukraine is easy to see through: Putin wants to annex these territories in order to stop the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive by drawing a new state border.
So that everyone in Kyiv (and in the West) can understand, his predecessor Medvedev threatened to use "all means of self-defence", i.e. the use of nuclear weapons.
The speed with which the "referendums" are to be carried out indicates panic in the Kremlin.
Apparently, the Russian leadership no longer believes that it will be able to stop the Ukrainians in the foreseeable future.
No attacks on Russian territory
One should have no illusions about the outcome of the "votes".
The crucial question will be how Kyiv and its partners will react.
So far, everything in the West, especially in Washington, has been done to prevent the Ukrainians from attacking Russian territory.
That was a central criterion in the arms deliveries, even if it was hardly noticed in the German debate.
By shifting the border, Putin is presenting the West with a difficult choice: sticking with current policies would be tantamount to accepting his territorial gains, even if they are not formally recognised.
If they are abandoned, then a level of escalation would be reached that not only the federal government hoped to avoid.