●point of view
Under the dual pressure of long-term employment structural contradictions and short-term demand shocks, the current youth employment problem is more severe and complex. To solve this problem, we must face the challenge head-on and identify the point of force to promote youth employment.
At present, one of the key points to stabilize employment in my country is to solve the problem of youth employment.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July this year, the unemployment rate of urban youth aged 16 to 24 was 19.9%, 14.5 percentage points higher than the overall unemployment rate and a record high.
Under the dual pressure of long-term employment structural contradictions and short-term demand shocks, the current youth employment problem is more severe and complex. To solve this problem, we must face the challenge head-on and identify the point of force to promote youth employment.
Why is it difficult for youth to find employment?
At present, factors such as the COVID-19 epidemic and the turbulent global political and economic structure have a profound impact on economic globalization, trade liberalization and investment facilitation, increasing the uncertainty of the global economy.
Short-term shocks and fluctuations in economic growth have a greater impact on employment stability, among which the youth employment group is the most affected.
The youth employment issue is superimposing the dual pressures of long-term structural contradictions and short-term demand shocks.
Unemployment in my country is mainly caused by structural contradictions in the labor market, including the mismatch between positions and skills, the mismatch of positions in space, and the lack of information about positions and job opportunities for job seekers.
The employment difficulties caused by structural contradictions are most prominent among the young people.
my country's age-specific unemployment rate shows that after the age of 30, the unemployment rate has become relatively stable and maintained at a low level.
Therefore, in the long run, one of the key points of my country's employment problem is to solve the employment problem of young people.
However, the high youth unemployment rate is not unique to our country.
From an international point of view, most developed countries also face this problem.
In 2020, the average unemployment rate of youth aged 15 to 24 in 37 developed countries in the world is 15%, of which women are slightly higher than men, reaching 15.4%, and men are 14.8%.
With the continuous improvement of income level, the opportunity cost of employment and job selection for young people, and the increase of retained wages, the high youth unemployment rate has become an important social problem in the world, especially in developed countries.
Solving the employment problem of young people is not only related to economic development, but also related to social harmony and stability.
The youth unemployment rate in my country is comparable to that of major developed countries, but it has its own characteristics.
On the one hand, the seasonal characteristics of my country's youth unemployment rate are obvious.
Generally, it reaches its peak in July and August every year, and declines rapidly in other seasons. This feature provides space for my country to solve the unemployment problem of young people.
On the other hand, the human capital accumulation level of new labor force in my country has grown rapidly.
Among the new entrants to the labor market each year, the number of college graduates has exceeded 60%.
The proportion of the labor force human capital of the youngest group to the human capital of the entire working-age population is basically higher than the average level of developed countries and 6.2% higher than the average level of developed countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). favorable conditions.
Difficulties and Challenges Facing Youth Employment in my country
First, the scale of college graduates continues to increase, and the superposition of supply intensifies the pressure of employment competition.
The number of college graduates across the country has repeatedly hit new highs, reaching 10.76 million this year.
At the same time, in recent years, the number of returning overseas students has also been increasing. From 2019 to 2021, the scale of returnees from overseas studies will be between 600,000 and 800,000 people every year.
Affected by the epidemic, the proportion of college graduates who choose to go abroad for further study in the past two years has dropped significantly.
In addition, the stock and increment of job-seeking graduates are superimposed, the total pressure on the employment of college graduates in the labor market has increased significantly, and the superimposed pressure of supply has made it more difficult for young people to find employment.
Second, the demand for labor has changed, and the mismatch between the supply and demand of youth employment skills is prominent.
The changes in demand in the process of my country's economic transformation, industrial upgrading and economic growth have put forward higher requirements for the skill level of laborers.
On the one hand, the upgrading and adjustment of the industrial structure is not in harmony with the supply of labor.
At present, more than half of the total number of college graduates are graduates of higher vocational colleges, and industrial upgrading has led to the supply of higher vocational graduates exceeding the demand.
On the other hand, the employability of college graduates does not match the market demand.
College graduates generally lack practical skills. Due to the accelerated depreciation of knowledge, skills and human capital due to technological progress, the skills of college graduates cannot well meet market demand.
In recent years, the application of new technologies has been accelerated, the level of intelligence has been continuously improved, and the trend of machines replacing low-skilled labor has increased, exacerbating the risk of youth unemployment.
Third, the skills of young migrant workers do not fully match the job demand, and they face the risk of unemployment brought about by new technological changes.
The human capital accumulation level of the youngest labor force in the 16 to 20-year-old group in my country's rural labor force can only meet the threshold of the average number of years of education in the manufacturing industry, and the human capital accumulation level of labor force in other age groups cannot meet the needs of the industry.
In the process of industrial transformation and upgrading, it is increasingly difficult for young migrant workers to meet the skills requirements of new jobs. Some of them are transferred to platforms for employment, and they provide services by taking orders in a programmatic manner. Their skill levels cannot be improved over time, and their human capital accumulation had a negative effect.
Compared with college graduates, young migrant workers are more likely to be at risk of unemployment due to human capital shortcomings.
Fourth, there is a serious problem of homogenization of employment demands, employment expectations and employment choice behaviors of youth groups, which has exacerbated the structural contradictions in employment.
College graduates pay more and more attention to the ability to resist risks when they choose to apply for a job. The popularity of public examinations continues to heat up, which prolongs the time for graduates to apply for jobs, does not match the willingness of employment with the market demand, and the phenomenon of "invoicing" is serious.
The 2021 "National Survey on the Employment of College Graduates" shows that nearly half of the graduates who have been determined to work in the public sector or state-owned sectors (party and government organs, public institutions, and state-owned enterprises) are employed.
Ideas and Countermeasures to Solve the Problem of Youth Employment
How to crack the youth employment problem?
Its core is to create better employment opportunities for young people, forge stronger employability, and promote their high-quality employment.
First, focus on supporting the development of the real economy sector, especially the innovative economy sector, to create high-quality employment opportunities and high-quality jobs.
Internationally, generally speaking, the real economic sectors of developed countries with lower youth unemployment rates have developed relatively well.
my country's manufacturing sector should be upgraded to a capital- and technology-intensive industry, the tertiary industry should be upgraded to a knowledge- and technology-intensive industry, and agriculture should also be transformed and upgraded. In the process of innovation and upgrading, a large number of high-quality jobs can be created.
Second, from the perspective of encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship, college graduates should be encouraged to start their own businesses, so as to drive employment through entrepreneurship.
The first is to optimize the institutional environment for college graduates to start their own businesses, such as deepening the reform of the “delegation, regulation and service” system and reducing the approval items for entrepreneurship; the second is to broaden the financing channels for college graduates to start their own businesses and solve the difficult problem of entrepreneurial financing; the third is to start a business for the first time. The fourth is to cooperate with colleges and universities to encourage the construction of various forms of entrepreneurial parks or entrepreneurial incubation bases for college students, and to provide policy support for college graduates to start their own businesses in terms of finance, industry and commerce, and taxation. .
Third, improving human capital is the key support for solving the employment difficulties of young people.
Specifically, it can be strengthened from four aspects: one is to improve educational human capital through the knowledge, skills, abilities and qualities acquired by the national education system and formal school education; the other is to obtain and improve production needs through vocational education and skills training. The third is to improve the health-oriented human capital through the improvement of medical and health conditions, nutritional status, and physical fitness. Innovative human capital.
Fourth, stabilize the employment of youth groups through a series of important policy measures.
The first is to support the development of the country's real economy and innovative economy, and take wealth creation as an important aspect of economic development; the second is to deepen the reform of higher education and vocational education, and to bridge the gap between academic education and skills education; the third is to strengthen the market for education and training The fourth is to establish a more inclusive social security system to provide basic living security for the unemployed; There is a guaranteed minimum income when they are not working. Sixthly, the retraining of knowledge and skills for young people is increased so that they can better understand the market and improve their skills.
At the same time, through the employment priority policy, we will continue to expand employment channels, improve the lifelong learning system, support innovation and entrepreneurship of college graduates, and continuously improve the employment service and training system.
(The author Zhang Chewei is director and researcher of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Qu Xiaobo is a researcher of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Zhang Chewei Qu Xiaobo