Putin has good reason to thank Xi Jinping.

China had expressed reservations about a Russian invasion of Ukraine before the war, but has now become Russia's most important ally.

Not only has Beijing adopted Moscow's anti-NATO rhetoric, although that's not mandatory for an Asian power.

Along with India, it also buys (heavily discounted) Russian oil, which should become crucial for Putin's survival, especially when the EU's oil embargo goes into full effect next year.

Without China, Russia would no doubt be much more isolated today.

Putin's example has a chilling effect

The fact that there is still no untroubled bosom friendship was openly expressed at the meeting of the two heads of state in Samarkand, when Putin spoke of the partner's "questions and concerns".

In fact, the Chinese position is characterized by an effort not to be sucked into the maelstrom of Western sanctions.

Xi has a difficult economic situation at home (partly through his own fault) and he will not want to break with trading partners in Europe and America.

Despite all the rhetorical solidarity, Putin's example in Beijing is likely to act as a deterrent.

For a country to risk practically its only source of income in a senseless war can hardly be what Xi means by "stability and positive energy in a chaotic world".

But he can't complain: Putin is so weak that he can't even do anything about Chinese influence in Kazakhstan, where he was still providing military assistance earlier this year.

On the battlefield in Ukraine, Xi left him alone anyway, as far as anyone knows.

But that's where Putin's fate will be decided, and ultimately it's much more in the hands of western powers than China.