Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has laid claim to Armenian territory many times.
Genocidal fantasies about the Armenians keep resonating in his speeches – while he denies the Armenian genocide of 1915, which killed one and a half million people.
Against this background, the Azerbaijani attacks on Armenia on Tuesday night are an alarm signal, even if it is not yet clear exactly what Aliyev is planning.
But he obviously wants to take advantage of the fact that Armenia is in an even weaker position than it was at the time of its defeat in the Nagorno Karabakh war in autumn 2020.
Armenia's military protector, Russia, has been weakened by its war of aggression against Ukraine and shows little will to help the Armenians.
As an ally of Russia, Armenia can currently expect little support from the EU and the USA, where Armenia has a voice thanks to its diaspora.
Europeans want to do business with Baku in their bid to break their dependency on Russian gas.
And cooperation between the West and Russia, which up to 2020 has contributed to maintaining the fragile ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia for more than two decades, is no longer to be thought of anyway.