The United States presents a new map
Regional and international engagement perpetuates division in Libya
The armed struggle for power has continued since the fall of the Gaddafi regime.
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Political disagreements negatively affected people's lives.
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The UN envoy, Abdullah Betley, begins a mission in which his predecessors failed.
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The external factor has become a decisive determinant in the developments of the scene in light of the political and military stalemate, which dominates the Libyan file.
The recent period has witnessed an escalation of international and regional involvement in the Libyan crisis, in light of the intense moves by these actors to reach new arrangements to resolve the current political crisis.
The United States is currently exerting strong pressure on the parties to the Libyan crisis to achieve the constitutional base and pave the way for holding elections as a priority, as was clarified in the intense meetings that American officials held with the Libyan parties.
Washington is still sticking to its approach based on stabilizing the fait accompli until the parliamentary and presidential elections are held, that is, maintaining the presence of two competing governments, with each of them taking responsibility for holding the elections in the geographical area it controls, but provided that the internal conflict does not escalate to the level of military confrontations, which was already Expressed explicitly by the US ambassador to Libya.
On the other hand, despite Russia's preoccupation with the current Ukrainian war, it has finally returned many of the Russian "Wagner" elements to Libya again, as their number is now estimated at 5,000 soldiers, and Libya will turn into an arena for competition between Russia and the United States, during the coming period. Especially after the downing of a US drone with Russian weapons, which was flying near the Libyan army command center in the Rajma area in eastern Libya, and was conducting reconnaissance operations regarding the activities of “Wagner” elements in Libya.
It seems that Moscow wanted to convey messages to Washington that this region has become a Russian sphere of influence.
European influence in Libya has declined recently due to the unilateral policies pursued by European countries towards it, which are often characterized by competition and conflicting roles, especially between France and Italy.
The European position has become increasingly confused due to preoccupation with the repercussions of the Ukrainian war on its internal situation.
Italy and France still play an influential role in Libya.
Rome is focused on increasing its share of Libyan oil and gas.
On the other hand, Paris is seeking to strengthen its presence in Libya through the support of Fathi Bashagha, as his last attempt to enter the capital, Tripoli, was coordinated and supported by a president from France.
Britain supports the government of Abdel Hamid al-Dabaiba, but this position may change with Liz Terrace assuming the presidency, especially with the presence of Mark Faulbrook, in the leadership of its campaign, who is expected to become one of the elements of its next government, as Faulbrook was pressing the government of Boris Johnson to support the position of the House of Representatives. Al-Libi and the Bashagha government.
The United Nations was recently able to appoint a new UN envoy in Libya, the Senegalese diplomat, Abdullah Betley, after a stumbling block for about nine months, which may push towards activating the international role in the Libyan file during the coming period.
The selection of Betley was based on Russian, Chinese and African pressures.
Some reports also hinted that the selection of Betley enjoys French support as well, given the strong relations that Paris has with the Senegalese diplomat since he assumed the position of deputy UN envoy for the MINUSMA mission in Mali in 2013.
Regional involvement
Ankara maintained its neutral position on the conflict between Dabaiba and Bashagha, as it hosted them, on September 2, 2022, after the Tripoli clashes at the end of last August, and held separate meetings with each of them at the Turkish intelligence headquarters.
The current Turkish approach towards Libya relies on its openness to all parties, to ensure that its interests are maximized there, and work to reach political consensus, while refusing to change the status quo by force, which is evident in the Dabaiba forces’ use of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones. » In repelling it, the armed groups affiliated with Bashagha advanced towards Tripoli.
On the other hand, Egypt is currently focusing on making progress on the constitutional basis that will organize the upcoming elections.
In this context, Cairo received, in August, the Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives, Aguila Saleh, and the President of the Supreme Council of State, Khaled Al-Mashri, following the latter’s visit to Ankara, as Egypt seeks to crystallize understandings between Saleh and Al-Mashri on the constitutional base, with Cairo’s adherence to the legitimacy of The Bashagha government appointed by Parliament, and the end of the Dabaiba government’s term, which was clearly reflected in the Egyptian delegation’s withdrawal, on September 6, from the meetings of the Arab League, in protest against Najla Al-Manqoush, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Dabaiba government, occupying the seat of Libya during the current session of the League.
Meanwhile, the Libyan file represents one of the most prominent priorities of Algeria’s foreign policy at the present time, as the latter is trying to strengthen its presence in this file, which was reflected in its reception of Dabaiba, in April 2022, as well as the visit of its Minister of Foreign Affairs, Najla Al-Manqoush, to Algeria, in July Last year, Algeria appointed an ambassador to Libya last year, after it reopened its embassy in Tripoli, which it had closed in May 2014, while the Dabaiba government appointed its ambassador to Algeria in August 2022, the parliamentarian, Muhammad Himma Bakda, after this remained The position has been vacant since 2018.
Algeria is the only country that explicitly recognizes the legitimacy of the Dabaiba government, and seeks, through its strong relations with it, to enhance its economic influence in western Libya. The current situation between the two countries is the return of airlines between them, and the possibility of opening a maritime line linking the two sides.
Tunisia has become closer to the Algerian position on the current conflict in Libya, after Tunisia was earlier closer to supporting the Bashagha government, and this appears to be the result of the growing understandings between Algeria and Tunisia.
Algeria is seeking to form a regional bloc under its leadership as an alternative to the group of Libyan neighboring countries, in light of the divergent positions between Algeria and Egypt regarding Libya, and the sharp competition between the former and Morocco.
internal bounces
It is likely that the coming period will witness an increased focus on the constitutional path, and an attempt to formulate consensus between the House of Representatives and the state will pave the way for the formulation of a constitutional basis that will be relied upon to hold presidential and parliamentary elections, especially in light of the current American pressures.
Some estimates indicated that there are current moves to present a new road map during the coming period, in light of the current relative consensus in the relations of the regional powers active in the Libyan file.
It seems that there is an American perception about the features of this map, which was expressed by Washington's ambassador to Libya, and therefore the new UN envoy could lead, during the next stage, the process of consultations to put forward this new map.
In conclusion, it seems that the regional and international role has become influential in the developments of the Libyan scene at the present time, in a way that may help reach consensus regarding the constitutional path and holding early elections, while trying to prevent the two competing governments from resorting to military force to resolve the ongoing power struggle.
It is noted that consensus on the constitutional path will not be an easy process, especially in light of the failure of previous efforts, which means the continuation of two parallel governments in Libya in the foreseeable future.
• The decline of European influence in Libya, during the recent period, due to the unilateral policies pursued by European countries towards it, which are often characterized by competition and conflicting roles.
• The current Turkish approach towards Libya depends on its openness to all parties, to ensure that its interests there are maximized.
• 5000 members of "Wagner" are currently in Libya.
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