Russia received Iran's Mohajer 6, Shahed 129 and Shahed 191 drones last August, according to what US officials revealed, as US intelligence estimates indicate that Russia intends to use Iran's drones, which can Conduct air-to-surface attacks, cyber warfare and targeting on the raging battlefield of Ukraine.

This came after the Deputy Spokesman for the US State Department, Vidant Patel, revealed that officials from Russia had trained in Iran during the past few weeks as part of an agreement between Tehran and Moscow regarding the transfer of Iran's drones to Russia, and the White House had previously revealed in the middle of the month. July about US intelligence information indicating that Russia is seeking to obtain hundreds of drones - armed and unarmed - from Iran for use in the war against Ukraine, on the other hand, Tehran officially denied that it has any intention to sell drones to Russia.

While Moscow ignored the comment, it was satisfied with the denial through its media, which indicated Washington's lack of supporting evidence.

Russian bet

Russia is relatively late in terms of possessing combat drone technologies.

Although Moscow has 1,500-2,000 military surveillance drones, it has relatively few attack drones of the type that can accurately strike targets deep in enemy territory.

In contrast, Ukraine has used Turkish-made combat drones to wreak havoc on Russian armor, trucks, and artillery since the early weeks of the conflict, and US intelligence indicates Russia's need for drones, especially since long-distance drones allow Moscow to identify targets. Correcting long-range artillery fire, which is one of the main keys to Russia's progress in its war against Ukraine.

At the same time, Russia is struggling to counteract the long-range precision artillery systems that Ukraine has received from its Western partners since the beginning of the war, especially the 49-mile “HIMARS” systems, which Kyiv has used to destroy dozens of ammunition depots, air defense sites and Russian command centers, as well as Russian artillery. The M777 howitzer, capable of firing precision-guided bursts, leaves Russia in dire need of reusable combat drones that can travel deep enough to disable Ukrainian artillery systems.

As a result, Moscow is betting that the introduction of Iran's drones could fundamentally change the course of the battles on the Ukrainian arena, but it is too early to tell the accuracy of this bet after US intelligence officials revealed that many of Iran's drones purchased by Russia faced many failures in tests The first was conducted by the Russians, and this does not seem surprising;

Iran's drones have not operated in a sophisticated air defense environment before, and have not been adequately tested. While Iran has provided its proxies such as the Houthis in Yemen and other Iraqi militias with this type of weapon, it has rarely tested them against the types of electronic jamming and anti-aircraft systems used in Ukraine.

A drone during a military exercise in Iran (Reuters)

However, Russia has a great ability to develop non-Russian military technology to be compatible with its military system. Since 2011, Russia has developed Israeli drones, allowing them to be integrated into its military system, but domestic production is currently hampered by severe Western sanctions, which have stopped the flow of necessary semiconductor chips. To produce such weapons, and other precision-guided missiles at planes and tanks, so in light of the huge demand inside Russia for semiconductor chips, the priority will be to buy fully-fledged drones, and provide its precious, and limited, supply of black market chips to other industries.

Moscow's acquisition of drones from Israel is unlikely in light of the Israeli policy that distances itself from direct involvement in the conflict (and is more inclined towards Ukraine, of course, due to the occupation state's alignment with America and Europe), and Turkey is also unlikely to provide Russia with drones at the same time. In which Ukraine supplies the same type of weapon, then Russia will have only two countries to turn to to fill the capabilities gap in combat drones: China and Iran, and while China has been acting cautiously so far to avoid being subjected to US sanctions, Iran appears to be the real option left , with a fairly strong domestic industry that has already sprung up amid the sanctions.

Tehran rallies in the skies of Europe

Iran's drones are currently among the fastest-growing Iranian air capabilities, as Tehran has developed its domestic drone industry, to compensate for its air power that has been weakened by years of international sanctions, and Iran owns many drones, some of which it developed by reverse engineering the American and Israeli drones that it captured On them, the Iranian drones’ purposes also vary to include surveillance, military reconnaissance and attack operations.

Either by firing ammunition or by hitting the target and exploding (suicide planes).

UAV training in Iran (Anatolia)

In recent years, Tehran has begun to view investment in the drone industry as a tool to enhance external influence, as well as provide some economic resources;

Where Iran exported drones to Ethiopia, and provided large numbers of drones to its proxies in the region, especially the Lebanese "Hezbollah", the Iraqi militias, and the Houthis in Yemen, where they were used to strike vital facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and last May the Chief of Staff opened The Iranian army, Muhammad Bagheri, has built a factory for the production of "Ababeel-2" unmanned reconnaissance planes in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, and in June, an Iranian "Muhajir-2" drone appeared in a parade of the Venezuelan army after it was assembled locally with Iranian support.

In exchange for supplying its drones to Moscow, Tehran is expected to reap some benefits.

In early August, Moscow launched the Iranian satellite "Khiam", and Tehran said that it would monitor the borders and serve civilian purposes only, but the satellite is expected to contribute to expanding Tehran's comprehensive monitoring capabilities in the Middle East, and it is not excluded that the Russian launch of the satellite The Iranian industrialist was part of the Russian efforts to obtain the Iranian drones.

In addition to military cooperation, Russia and Iran have announced many trade and investment deals between the two sides since the start of the war last February, including a memorandum of understanding last July, worth $40 billion, to develop Iranian oil and gas fields and projects. However, the announced deals do not reflect a deep partnership between the two sides as much as they indicate their desire to defy Western sanctions, as many of the announced projects during the past decade did not develop into a tangible reality.

Moreover, the prominent picture of the thriving relations between Russia and Iran differs somewhat when it comes to competition to sell oil in global markets, as Russia’s transfer of its oil to Asian markets, especially China and India, to replace discounted Iranian crude, has increased competition And create a point of mutual disagreement between the two sides.

Testing an Iranian weapon in an advanced combat environment such as the Ukraine war will provide Tehran with enough opportunity to develop in order to avoid the flaws of its drones and develop its capabilities.

(Reuters)

add.. but

In the end, Iran's drones could represent an addition to Russia's military capabilities in light of Moscow's shortage of this weapon, but this deal is unlikely to change the course of the war in Russia's favor strategically, however;

Testing an Iranian weapon in an advanced combat environment such as the Ukraine war will provide Tehran with an adequate opportunity to develop in order to avoid the defects of its drones and develop its capabilities.

However, Iran's drone deal with Russia does not necessarily indicate the two sides' involvement in a strategic alliance. So far, the deal comes within the framework of the two sides' keenness on tactical relations, strong friendship, and understandings based on common geopolitical challenges.

More bilateral military and economic cooperation against the backdrop of the expected protracted war may give a more strategic character to the two countries' relations.

It is unlikely that the Iran drone deal will also affect the course of the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, which is evident in the positive developments in August, which confirm that the two sides are still committed to reaching an agreement, and that each party is only working to improve the terms And the possession of guarantees, but this will not prevent the United States from applying its sanctions on Iran as a result of this type of military deal with Russia, without linking these sanctions to the nuclear agreement.

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This article is published in agreement with Asbab website.

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