On September 5, the Philippine ambassador to the United States, José Romdeldes, said in an interview with Japan's "Nikkei Shimbun" that once a large-scale war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, for its own security reasons, Manila "will let the US military use the Philippines. military base".

These remarks go against the trend of rapid development of China-Philippines relations in recent years, and cause the outside world to worry: Has the new Philippine President Marcos started to adjust his China policy?

　　Just a few days ago, on August 30, former Prime Minister Mahathir of Malaysia, another ASEAN member, said in an interview with the Financial Times that tensions in the Taiwan Strait were "related to provocations by the United States", accusing Washington of escalating regional tensions. The situation urges Southeast Asian countries to move closer to China.

　　In the face of China and the United States, how will ASEAN countries choose?

Xu Liping, a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that some major powers are trying to promote a "broken link" or "decoupling" with China in ASEAN, and even form an "anti-China camp", which can only form a "department" at most, which is insufficient. to form a "potential".

　　Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian said on August 31 that over the past 30 years since the establishment of China-ASEAN dialogue relations, China-ASEAN relations have always taken the lead, and the two sides are each other's largest trading partners. Force other countries to choose sides.

　　In an exclusive interview article published by the "Nikkei Shimbun" on September 5, Romdeldes said that if there is a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, "if it is important to us and important to our own security," Manila will allow the US military to use it. Philippine military base.

Romdeldes' remarks presuppose two preconditions: one is the outbreak of a large-scale war in the Taiwan Strait, and the other is the US military intervention.

　　Romdeldes said the geopolitical importance of the Philippines is increasing as the U.S. military seeks to deploy forces along the "first island chain" from Japan to Southeast Asia.

Now Manila is negotiating with Washington to increase the number of Philippine military bases that U.S. troops can use.

He also revealed the time frame for the cooperation between the US and the Philippines on this issue, "Hopefully in the next three years we can identify specific issues."

　　Romdeldes also revealed that it was not the current Philippine government that began to discuss this issue, and that President Duterte also held an "open discussion" attitude towards the "Taiwan Strait conflict" during his administration.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February this year, Duterte publicly stated that if the United States asked the Philippines to provide support, the Philippines would not be able to do so; but if the Ukraine crisis spreads to Asia, the Philippines will be forced to be involved.

　　However, Romdeldes is also aware of the sensitivity of his remarks and specifically emphasized that the Philippines, like other ASEAN member states, always adheres to the "one China" principle and opposes all kinds of provocative actions by the Taiwan region against the mainland.

"No one wants any kind of war or confrontation," he said. "We would like to implore China and the United States to de-escalate tensions by having more dialogue and try to resolve all issues."

　　Romdeldes' remarks aroused strong reactions from people of insight in the Philippines.

After all, it took the whole country of the Philippines more than 100 years to expel the US military who "humiliated and violated the country".

　　Due to its special geographical location, the Philippines plays an extremely important role in the political landscape of the Asia-Pacific region.

Since occupied the Philippines through the Spanish-American War in 1898, the United States has continued to expand its military facilities there.

After World War II, the US's status in the Philippine military bases became more prominent, and it was even regarded as a "country within a country".

With the development of Philippine nationalism, the struggle between the United States and the Philippines over the military bases intensified, and finally forced the US military to withdraw from the Philippines in 1991. The Philippines also turned the US military Clark Air Force Base and Subic Naval Base into an industrial zone with Economic and Trade Zone.

　　However, in recent years, the United States has made continuous efforts to return to the Philippines and restart its naval and air bases in the Philippines.

In 2014, the United States and the Philippines reached an "Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement", which allows the U.S. military to rotate troops in five bases in the Philippines and deploy ammunition, fuel and medical supplies.

Based on this framework, Romdeldes revealed on September 5 that the US and the Philippines are currently negotiating the number of military bases in the Philippines that the US military can use, and it is possible to further expand the military ties between the two countries.

　　In response to a "Voice of America" ​​inquiry on September 5, a spokesman for the U.S. Department of Defense said that the United States and the Philippines seek to strengthen the posture of the alliance to meet new and emerging challenges, "We intend to continue to advance the "Defense Enhancement Cooperation Agreement" related infrastructure projects and explore further development of other sites.”

　　In this regard, Philippine media and scholars have stated that the US-Philippines Defense Enhancement Cooperation Agreement is contrary to the provisions of the Philippine Constitution that prohibit foreign military bases, and to some extent violates the national sovereignty of the Philippines.

　　Romdeldes is not only the Philippine ambassador to the United States, but also a relative of the new president's mother, Marcos, and is believed to have considerable influence on the foreign and security policy of the new government in Manila.

Therefore, his latest remarks on the Taiwan Strait issue may be considered to reflect President Marcos's vacillating position between China and the United States.

　　The Nikkei reported on September 5 that Marcos is likely to have changed the relatively moderate stance towards China under President Duterte.

But on August 18 not long ago, when Marcos met with Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian, he said that he looked forward to further strengthening China-Philippines relations and benefiting the two peoples.

On August 31, Philippine Foreign Minister Manaro also revealed that the Philippines is willing to resume negotiations with China on oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea.

　　Since taking office on June 30 this year, Marcos has repeatedly stressed the need to improve Philippine-US relations.

On August 6, against the backdrop of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the situation in the Taiwan Strait was heating up. When US Secretary of State Blinken visited the Philippines, he released a signal that the US wants to expand its military presence in the Philippines.

Marcos emphasized the "special relationship" between the Philippines and the United States, saying that the turmoil in the Taiwan Strait "shows the importance of the relationship between the United States and the Philippines."

　　Facing China and the United States, how will the Philippines choose to deal with itself?

Di Castro, a professor at the Department of International Studies at De La Salle University in the Philippines, believes that although the Philippines hopes to maintain neutrality, because the United States and the Philippines have a mutual defense treaty, it is difficult for the Philippines not to choose between the United States and China. .

But Philippine National Security Adviser Clarita Carlos said on August 6 that Manila cannot choose between the United States and China.

She said: "Our national interest is to get whatever benefits we can from our relationship with China and the United States." Analysts and the public mostly believe that if the Philippines really allows the US military to use bases to intervene in the Taiwan Strait conflict, the result will only be It can be harmful to others.

　　This newspaper, Beijing, September 7th

　　China Youth Daily, China Youth Daily reporter Chen Xiaoru Source: China Youth Daily