Failed to manage and mitigate friction points
The world order is living in an era of chaos and the failure of Western hegemony
Chinese fighters take off from the deck of the aircraft carrier "Liaoning" during a military exercise
Pelosi's visit to Taipei has sparked an already tense competition between Washington and Beijing for influence in the Indo-Pacific.
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In light of the changing global security scene in light of recent developments, the latest of which is the war in Ukraine, security blocs have emerged in areas that are candidates for conflicts to serve as a wall in the event of any new escalation.
Among these blocs is the trilateral security agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States (Ocos), which will help the three countries develop and deploy nuclear-powered submarines, in addition to strengthening the Western military presence in the Pacific region.
Jason Buck, an analyst at the NATO Defense College Foundation, and Darren Jackson Associate Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, Darren Spink, say in a report published by the American magazine "National Interest" that in the past month, the war in Ukraine and the great power struggle for control of The South China Sea are forever linked.
The visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei at the beginning of last August sparked an already tense competition between Washington and Beijing for influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
As part of supporting Ukraine and defending a rules-based international order, the United States signaled its commitment to defending Taiwan by sending missile cruisers through the Taiwan Strait last week.
China's reaction was another example of the Chinese Communist Party's strong approach to resolving territorial disputes. Just days after Pelosi and her delegation left Taiwan, China launched missiles over Taiwan toward Japan's exclusive economic zone.
This missile launch into Japanese waters did not elicit any meaningful response from the United States, even though Japan is a treaty ally with security guarantees.
Washington's strategy to counter Chinese hegemonic ambitions remains ambiguous, given America's justifiable preoccupation with the Russian war in Ukraine.
This series of events epitomizes the extent to which the unipolar world order led by the United States is under existential threat.
The two experts believe that the world is living in an era of permanent chaos, which was characterized by the failure of the mechanisms and institutions of Western hegemony in managing and alleviating points of friction in the international system.
Like-minded allies seriously seek to create effective collective action mechanisms to deter competitors and protect their interests.
Whether Turkey threatens to "freeze" Finland and Sweden's attempts to join NATO, Hungary and the European Union clash over rule of law differences, or Russia obstructs UN Security Council action on Ukraine, the world is in a power vacuum.
Pelosi's decision to ignore the warnings of the White House and the Pentagon is indicative of the failure of coordination among the multiple power centers, as systems in place to avoid global conflict are constantly being bypassed and ignored by those who claim to support them.
However, Pelosi's visit and the ensuing friction with China could also lead the West and its like-minded partners to adopt a coherent policy to combat this turbulent era of international affairs, balancing Chinese hegemony in the region.
A major first step has already been taken in the form of Okos.
While some, including China, have described Okos as little more than a dangerous and hostile “arms deal,” Okos is much more than that.
Okos is a tripartite security agreement, with the potential to serve as a "cornerstone stabilizer" that could counter Chinese hegemonic ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region.
Rather than being a values-based alliance, OCOs is a technocratic agreement focused on creating a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region that would rein in Chinese coercive measures through strong maritime security protection.
It is also a network of shared technologies that build on existing bilateral arrangements.
Under Okos, Washington laid the groundwork for forging a strong deterrence alliance.
The experts say that "Ocos" represents a new form of collective action, which has emerged in the Indo-Pacific region.
It is a mini-participation that has faced challenges since its inception, but now appears to be evolving into an effective security agreement.
Indeed, the Okus may be the most important step toward reasserting the "Anglosphere" cooperation (a group of English-speaking countries with similar cultural heritage), which can serve as a model for how to confront common problems and hostile states.
OCOS also reinforces London and Canberra's acceptance of Washington's paramount role as security guarantor of the Indo-Pacific region.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's new government has worked hard to mend relations with partners his predecessor had annoyed by easing tensions with France and offering assurances to regional partners, such as Indonesia, that Okos was not a threat.
Although Ocos' primary mandate includes providing Australia with conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines, as well as advanced defense and security capabilities, there is strong potential for the agreement to serve as a regional deterrence platform.
Expanding the range of Okos units to include Japan, and possibly even India, would improve regional interoperability, enhance joint exercises, and put major military assets forward.
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States could also signal the agreement's determination to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific region, by continuing to deploy naval assets in the South China Sea and scheduling freedom of navigation transit through the Taiwan Strait.
OCOS members must also urgently prioritize increasing overall defense production capacity.
The need for the English-speaking Allies to increase ammunition and shipbuilding capacity turned out to be very real.
At present, America cannot be a full-service arsenal of democracy equipped to supply arms for a war on two fronts.
The war in Ukraine has depleted US artillery stocks and maximized submarine-building capacity, leaving allies like Australia and Taiwan short of supplies if hostilities with China escalate in the short to medium term.
The two experts conclude their report that the world is living in an era of permanent chaos, full of challenges of collective action and the multiplication of centers of power.
However, this does not mean that like-minded allies cannot take innovative steps to craft new forms of order and deter potential aggressors.
The two experts believe that the world is living in an era of permanent chaos, which was characterized by the failure of the mechanisms and institutions of Western hegemony to manage and mitigate the points of friction in the international system.
Like-minded allies seriously seek to create effective collective action mechanisms to deter competitors and protect their interests. Pelosi's ignoring of warnings from the White House and the Pentagon is indicative of the failure of coordination among the multiple power centers, as systems in place to avoid global conflict are constantly being bypassed and ignored by those who claim to support them.
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