Overcoming difficulties and safety as the leading path of my country's energy transformation should go this way

　　Overcoming difficulties and safety are the first three steps to grasp the rhythm

　　my country's energy transformation road should go like this

　　◎Reporter Cao Xiuying

　　"The energy transition is more complex and challenging than people think. If this problem is not handled properly, it may face the risk of global energy crisis, economic recession and social unrest." "At the international high-end forum, Daniel Yerkin, an internationally renowned energy scholar and vice chairman of S&P Global, said.

　　Focusing on the hotspots, key points and difficulties in the green and low-carbon transformation and development of the global and my country's energy industry, analyzing opportunities and challenges, planning strategic layouts, exploring development paths, and providing policy suggestions are the essence of holding this forum.

　　To achieve energy transition, we must first ensure energy security

　　Dai Houliang, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and chairman of CNPC, analyzed that since the beginning of this year, the world's green and low-carbon transition has become more complicated and twisted in the face of rising energy security anxiety in various countries and continued high growth in energy prices.

my country's energy and energy-related carbon emissions account for more than 80% of the total carbon emissions.

In order to achieve the "dual carbon" goal, solving the energy problem is the top priority.

　　"We must plan the energy development strategy scientifically, and insist on establishing first and then breaking, and not breaking without establishing. We must coordinate the short-term and long-term relationship, and deal with the relationship between safety, economy and cleanliness." Dai Houliang emphasized that it is necessary to achieve multiple goals. In order to ensure the green and low-carbon development of the energy industry and the steady and long-term progress of energy transformation.

　　Li Zhongping, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and vice president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation is reshaping the global energy technology and supply pattern. New energy technologies such as wind power photovoltaic, advanced nuclear energy, green hydrogen energy, and new energy storage are being The acceleration of iteration at an unprecedented speed has become an important driving force for the green and low-carbon transformation of energy.

　　At the same time, the world is still facing problems such as continuous growth in energy demand, increasingly prominent structural contradictions, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and regional turbulence. The global energy system is facing deep adjustment.

"Safe development is the premise of green development and high-quality development, and it will also be a prominent task for energy development at present and in the future." Li Zhongping said.

　　This is also the consensus of the participants.

"Many countries in the world have put energy security back on the agenda." Daniel Yerkin emphasized that to achieve energy transition, energy security must first be guaranteed.

　　Three-step strategy to promote green and low-carbon transformation of energy in an orderly manner

　　In 2021, the Chinese Academy of Engineering organized the major consulting project "my country's Carbon Peak Carbon Neutrality Strategy and Path", and China National Petroleum Corporation took the lead in undertaking the special research on "Energy Development Strategy Research under the Carbon Neutral Target of Carbon Peak". .

　　The research group proposed to systematically plan and formulate China's energy development strategy, and promote the energy system from the "big three" dominated by coal, that is, large coal, small oil, gas and new energy, to "three small" dominated by new energy. One big”, that is, oil, gas, and coal are small, and new energy is large.

　　"We should follow the three-step strategy to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy in an orderly manner." Dai Houliang said.

　　First, before 2035, promote fossil energy to enter the peak period, accelerate the application of clean coal, the steady development of oil, the accelerated development of natural gas, and the accelerated development of new energy, so as to achieve the peak of fossil energy consumption and increase the proportion of non-fossil energy. rose to more than 30%.

　　Second, from 2036 to 2050, promote the accelerated replacement of non-fossil energy, promote the leap-forward improvement of the electrification of end-use energy by strengthening the efficient development and utilization of new energy and tackling key technical problems, accelerate the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body, and improve new The construction of the energy supply system will promote the proportion of non-fossil energy to reach more than 60% around 2050.

　　The third is from 2051 to 2060, to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system in an all-round way, to give more prominence to the raw material properties of coal and oil, and to ensure the bottom line, and to give better play to the role of natural gas as the best partner for large-scale utilization of new energy. It will continue to expand the scale of wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear energy utilization, and promote the proportion of non-fossil energy in the total energy.

　　Facing the challenges of transformation, it is necessary to actively explore and act proactively

　　"To achieve the 'dual carbon' goal, my country is facing difficulties such as heavy energy transition tasks and tight time windows." said Du Xiangwan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, deputy director of the National Energy Expert Advisory Committee, and consultant to the National Climate Change Expert Committee.

　　"The problems and difficulties we are facing now are: first, the industrial structure is overweight; second, the energy industry contributes 40% to the economy, but consumes 68%. The energy structure is deviated and the overall efficiency is low," said Du Xiangwan.

　　He said that my country has only reserved 30 years from carbon peaking to carbon neutrality, while developed countries usually take 50-70 years. "So if we need a comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation, the acceleration of energy transformation will be even greater, and the challenges will be greater. rather difficult.”

　　Du Xiangwan said that despite these difficulties, we can achieve the "dual carbon" goal by actively exploring and taking the initiative to accelerate technological progress and development transformation.

　　He particularly emphasized that achieving the "two-carbon" goal is a complex system engineering and a decades-long scientific transformation process.

Achieving the "dual carbon" goal calls for in-depth management and technological innovation, as well as financial support and corporate participation.

　　"We must grasp the rhythm of transformation and prevent two situations. One is 'one size fits all' simplification, and the other is ineffective transformation, which leads to backward and ineffective investment. We must first establish and then break through, and profoundly promote national reform and progress." Du Xiangwan said .