The odds of finding a solution are low
The violence in Iraq reflects a persistent flaw in the country's politics
The violence in the streets of Baghdad left dozens dead and hundreds injured.
AFP
Al-Kazemi praised the policy of restraint shown by Al-Sadr.
AFP
Frustrated youth participated in the recent violence.
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Al-Sadr enjoys the support of an important part of the Iraqi Shiites.
Reuters
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First there was anger, then protests, and then a wave of violence that left dozens dead and hundreds injured.
Now, there is only turmoil and a fragile calm.
For most of the past two decades, Baghdad has been plagued by conflict, instability, and tragedies.
But the chaos that spread in the Iraqi capital, last Monday night and Tuesday morning, represents the deadliest round of violence in years.
Supporters of prominent Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr clashed with Iraqi security forces and pro-Iranian militias in the Green Zone in Baghdad, and stormed the presidential palace.
The city was shook by the sounds of machine gun fire and anti-armored missiles.
Violence spread across the country, with the Sadrists attacking government offices of pro-Iranian factions in several cities.
About 30 people were killed, and the death toll is expected to rise to more.
But by Tuesday afternoon, Sadr called on his followers to withdraw, and lamented the deaths.
As a result of the restraint shown by al-Sadr, he won the approval of Iraqi President Barham Salih and Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who serves as the caretaker prime minister, given the failure of Iraqi politicians to form a new government despite the passage of a year since the elections.
nationalism and populism
What happened next is everyone's guess.
Al-Sadr, who was in the past leading revolutions against the Americans, and is essential in Iraqi politics, presents himself as a nationalist and populist, who enjoys the support of an important part of the Iraqi Shiites.
His maneuvering is part of the development of the internal Shiite rivalry in the country, which threatens to destabilize an already fragile state, and complicates the equation for Iran, which has significant influence over Baghdad.
My colleagues Mustafa Selim and Karim Fahim, two correspondents for The Washington Post, wrote: "The political dysfunction in Iraq has been a feature of civilian life since the American invasion of that country nearly two decades ago, when the invasion reinforced the sectarian system and corrupt governance."
The two correspondents added, “The political stalemate began since last October, when the Sadr bloc won the largest number of seats in parliament, but was unable to form a government after trying to exclude the competing Shiites.
Al-Sadr opposes rival groups of Shiites, led by former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is a notorious figure in Washington as a result of what he is known for as corruption and bad governance that led to the emergence of the “ISIS” organization in 2014. Maneuvers by both sides led to this Summer is very turbulent, capped by the explosion of the conflict wide open this week.
Game rules
The Iraqi researcher at the London-based Chatham House, Renad Mansour, told me that “fuelling violence and protests, and destabilization are the rules of the game” now in Iraqi politics, as Sadr seeks to take advantage of his supporters’ abilities to provoke violence as a “negotiating tool” in order to obtain Greater concessions than his opponents.
"Al-Sadr has always put himself, and his supporters, in a position that makes violence and bloodshed inevitable, but he always backs down and rejects violence," researcher Hamdi Malik of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told Reuters.
There is not much evidence that Sadr and Maliki, let alone the overall combination of other players, vying for power, will be able to resolve their differences soon.
Al-Sadr's announcement last Monday that he was withdrawing from politics angered his supporters, but he remained present in the wake of the clashes.
Online press sources said: "It is not certain that dialogue is possible now, but the established fact is that the Iraqi prime minister was forced to praise al-Sadr, because he extinguished a fire that he is largely responsible for, which indicates the extent of the power in his hands." .
dissolution of parliament
Al-Sadr and his allies called for parliament to be dissolved and new elections called.
A 21-year-old supporter of al-Sadr, who left the Green Zone carrying his rifle, told his comrades: "Personally, I do not want to withdraw. We have lost many martyrs, but we must always obey al-Sadr."
The possibility of new clashes looming on the horizon.
"The biggest loser is the state, which stands idly by while two armed parties struggle to control the situation," said Sajid Jiyad, a researcher at the American think-tank, the Century Foundation.
And if an appropriate solution is not found, more protests and violence are expected.”
The current situation of tension is of deep concern.
A movement of demonstrations ignited in recent years, sparked by a generation of young people frustrated with the current political situation, of which al-Sadr was a part, but which he opposed in an opportunistic manner.
There is little expectation of significant reforms that will satisfy their demands and make better use of the massive oil revenues;
To better meet the needs of Iraqis.
"The regime has become economically and ideologically bankrupt, and accordingly it has become more repressive," Mansour says, referring to the killings committed by the security forces against young protesters, who killed hundreds of them and stifled civil society and journalists.
The legacy of the American invasion
Of course, the regime in Baghdad is a legacy of the US invasion, occupation, and Iranian influence that found its way into the corridors of power after the overthrow of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
The Shiite power in the Middle East has a direct line with the main factions in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces, militias that used to play a key role in the fight against ISIS, but are now resented by many Iraqis as they have become proxies for the bullying of an intrusive regime. .
In recent months, Sadr's relationship with Iran worsened, and he escalated his criticism of Tehran.
"Iran's reputation in Iraq has been damaged among young people, especially among Shiite youth," said Randa Salim, a researcher at the American Middle East Institute.
Ishaan Tharoor is a columnist for The Washington Post.
The chaos that spread in the Iraqi capital, last Monday night and Tuesday morning, represents the deadliest round of violence in years.
The political imbalance in Iraq has been a feature of civilian life since the US invasion of that country nearly two decades ago, when the invasion reinforced the sectarian system and corrupt governance.
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