How did China benefit from Russia's war on Ukraine?

BEIJING

- Before Russia's war on Ukraine, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that Sino-Russian strategic cooperation has no final borders, nor restricted areas.

Given the bilateral relations between Russia and China, many expected the latter to unequivocally support Moscow in its war on Ukraine more than just rhetoric, especially by helping Moscow mitigate the damage from Western sanctions.

But in the following months, Russia learned that the rhetoric did not match reality.

While the wave of global sanctions on the Putin regime has apparently strengthened the political, economic, and military relations between the two countries, the real strategic impact of Russia has been to increase dependence on China.

Analysts believe that China increasingly imposed the direction of the partnership and pressured more concessions from the Russians, raised prices, and walked a diplomatic path with Western countries that cannot afford to separate from them commercially.

Six months later, President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine has cemented Russia's position as the clear junior partner in the Sino-Russian relationship, both militarily and economically.

China Energy Mine

China is exploiting the situation more decisively in its economic relations with Russia.

Sanctions imposed on Russia have allowed China to help its partner reduce economic damage by increasing trade, according to observers.

Trade between the two countries continues to grow.

China has enormous energy requirements, while Russia is a valuable source of energy imports.

Trade between Russia and China rose 35.9 percent last year, reaching a record high of $146.9 billion.

But these numbers illustrate the huge and growing trade imbalance in favor of China, according to observers.

In 2013, China accounted for 11% of Russia's trade, and in 2021, the figure was 18%, while Russia only accounted for 2% of China's trade share.

The researcher on Russian affairs, Zhang Shui Feng, says that this imbalance becomes more surprising when taking into account that 70% of Russia's exports to China are related to energy.

He adds to Al Jazeera Net, that given the low interest rates, it is difficult to describe the growth of natural resource exports to China as positive for Russia, but Western sanctions have forced Russia to look to China for investment opportunities.

Low reward for Russia

In contrast to the risks that Russia faces, the reward seems too low to attract many Chinese private investors, which stands in the way of increased investment is Russia's business environment and weak market fundamentals, as Russia is considered more risky than advanced economies, but it holds promise Fewer than many developing economies due in part to its declining population.

These factors reveal an unequal partnership that will become more unbalanced in the future, at a time when Russia has few alternatives for deepening economic relations with China, according to analysts.

Partnership by necessity

The two sides repeatedly declared their quest to establish themselves as equal partners, but Russia's stagnation in light of China's continued strengthening of its national strength, will make Moscow a less useful partner for China, especially in the face of the West.

In his article in the American magazine Foreign Affairs, history researcher Odd Arne Whistad believes that Russia and China are not partners whose partnership was established by nature, but rather by virtue of a necessity they see in this relationship.

He added that "the Russian rapprochement with China exists because of the need to defy the West, and not for any natural harmony between the two powers."

Western sanctions have given Russia's military-industrial complex new impetus to sell technology to the People's Liberation Army (Chinese army), at a time when the Kremlin has fewer clients or partners.

Relying on Chinese technology after the Ukraine war that can speed up development and thriving joint operations for a brief period, it has become difficult for Russia's arms manufacturers to bet on China to maintain or develop it in the long run.

With China emerging as a competitor in the arms export market, observers believe that the impact of the sanctions and what they consider the poor performance of Russian equipment heralds a bleak future for Russia.

Russian arms sales to Southeast Asia have already fallen sharply over the past seven years, dropping from $1.2 billion in 2014 to just $89 million in 2021. Chinese companies are well positioned to fill in the gaps that Russian companies can no longer afford. blocked it.

"Sino-Russian cooperation has very clear limits, which the Chinese leadership is not yet ready to cross," says economic researcher Xu Shijun.

He indicated - in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net - that Beijing has largely avoided helping Moscow to overcome sanctions, the continuation of which - against Russia - would enhance Chinese interests.