A new investigation could lead to the downfall of Donald Trump.

After the search of his residence by the FBI and the public hearings of the parliamentary inquiry into the assault on the Capitol, the investigation in the American state of Georgia is putting additional pressure, judge experts.

The investigation into the former president's attempts to reverse the result of the 2020 presidential election in this southern state is under close scrutiny in the political sphere, especially as he flirts more and more openly with the idea of ​​a new candidacy in 2024.

After his defeat, Donald Trump - who lost Georgia by a hair's breadth to Joe Biden - immediately denounced electoral fraud.

Despite three new counts, no evidence of large-scale fraud was found and his team's complaints were dismissed.

But the 76-year-old Republican had asked Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to "find" 12,000 ballots in his favor to overturn the outcome of the ballot in a phone call made public.

In a note published in October 2021, lawyers from the Brookings Institution think tank believed that there was "a significant risk of prosecution" for the billionaire in this key state.

Fani Willis, prosecutor for Fulton County, which includes Atlanta, appointed a grand jury in May to determine whether there was enough evidence to prosecute Donald Trump.

Election fraud and interference

At the end of this long investigation, the ex-president could be charged with charges related to electoral fraud and interference, according to legal experts.

Donald Trump, who denies any wrongdoing, could also be prosecuted under a law usually used to bring down members of the mafia.

Fani Willis has already managed to collect testimonies from personalities from the close circle of the former real estate magnate, in particular from his ex-personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who is himself the subject of a criminal investigation.

A judge has also demanded that Republican Governor of Georgia Brian Kemp, lambasted by Donald Trump for having certified Joe Biden's victory in the presidential election, testify in turn after the legislative elections of November 2022. Brad Raffensperger and the prosecutor Georgia General Chris Carr, who was also the subject of pressure from the ex-president, have already been heard by the grand jury.

Donald Trump's former chief of staff, Mark Meadows, is himself in the crosshairs of justice, as is Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of the former president, accused of having suggested not to take into account mail-in ballots in Georgia, which he denies.

Chances of indictment?

"So far, Donald Trump has managed to escape accountability for his actions, whether in Georgia or elsewhere," said Kevin O'Brien, a lawyer and former federal prosecutor in New York.

But for some specialists, the investigation in Georgia is different from that of the Ministry of Justice and would have a better chance of leading to an indictment.

For David French, a conservative political analyst, Georgia is the main risk of legal proceedings for the former president.

"Let's say he's the sheriff of a small town and he calls an official overseeing the county election and says, 'I need 50 more votes, or you might end up in jail. “”, Donald Trump would probably have already been charged, he explained in his podcast The Fifth Column.

“But he's the former president of the United States.

Indicting him is a really big deal.

And I don't know if it's going to happen but, in my opinion, Georgia has always been the biggest threat to him, ”he continued.

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