The storming of presidential headquarters and clashes between security and Sadr's supporters... What is happening in Iraq and where are the events heading?

BAGHDAD -

The Iraqi political scene worsened, after the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, retired from political work, followed by his supporters storming the Republican Palace in the Green Zone in central Baghdad.

The story of the political crisis began when the Electoral Commission announced, on October 30, 2021, the results of the parliamentary elections, with the Sadrist bloc winning 73 deputies. He nominated Muhammad al-Halbousi as speaker of parliament, Kurdish politician Hoshyar Zebari as president of the republic, and Jaafar Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr as prime minister.

The political scene was complicated, after the Federal Court excluded Zebari from the presidential race, on February 13, 2022, due to corruption charges.

The Federal Supreme Court issued a clarification regarding the quorum of the presidential election session, which confirmed that it can only be completed by a two-thirds majority of the 329 members of Parliament.

complexity of the scene

Al-Sadr launched an appeal to the independents, to ally with him, pass the President of the Republic, and participate in the process of choosing the next government, but the independents refused this, due to the lack of trust between the two parties, especially after Al-Sadr’s stances, during the October 2019 demonstrations, after his coup against the demonstrators and went To form the government of Mustafa Al-Kazemi alone, and participated in ending the sit-ins in Baghdad, Dhi Qar, and some other southern provinces.

Then the political scene became complicated, and al-Sadr decided to concede to the coordination framework to form the next government, and the framework was unable to collect the votes required to choose a president, due to the blocking third.

• On June 12, al-Sadr decided to resign from the parliamentary bloc, and the coordination framework and the independents compensated the Sadrist bloc’s seats, as the Shiite coordination framework became the largest bloc in parliament, with 130 deputies out of 329 deputies.

• The coordination framework held talks with the Kurds and Sunnis to form the government, and on July 26, it chose Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani as a candidate to head the government, and set July 31 as the date for the parliament session to pass it.

• Sadr's supporters stormed the parliament building and staged a sit-in on July 30, to this day, in order to prevent the coordination framework from forming any government.

• On August 23, Sadr's supporters expanded their sit-in to include the Judicial Council building, to demand the dissolution of Parliament and the holding of early parliamentary elections, but the judiciary issued arrest warrants against 3 leaders of the Sadrist movement, most notably Sabah Al-Saadi, which ended the same day, supporters chest sit-down.

• Al-Sadr set a 72-hour deadline to end the presence of the ruling political parties since 2003 until now, including the Sadrist movement, by signing an agreement and opening the way for the emerging political forces to form the next government by running early elections. Suspend his political activity, and the choice remains for the street.

• Al-Sadr decided today to retire from political activity, and thus gave the green light to his supporters to expand the protests in all provinces except for Najaf governorate, the headquarters of the Shiite religious authority.

• Security forces imposed a curfew in the capital, Baghdad, to prevent al-Sadr supporters from reaching government headquarters and foreign embassies in the Green Zone, but without military friction with the protesters.

  The security forces also imposed a curfew in the rest of the governorates of central and southern Iraq.

• Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi suspended the cabinet sessions until further notice, in order for a group of demonstrators to enter the Cabinet headquarters.

Al-Qassab: The continuation of the crisis without issuing a decision to dissolve Parliament may complicate the political scene (Al-Jazeera)

Expected scenarios

Commenting on these events, political analyst Nabil Jabbar Al-Ali told Al-Jazeera Net that the current protest crisis could end soon, after the Sadrists vented their anger by storming the presidential headquarters, or it might turn to complication if the regular forces used force against angry protesters.

He added that today's protest is without leadership and without a goal and is accompanied by popular anger, and may pose a social and security danger, especially with the presence of an ineffective government accused of being part of the crisis, and losing the confidence of several political parties.

He noted that the outcome of the crisis may be new initiatives to reform the political system, through fundamental reforms that take place within a limited period, then new and early elections.

For his part, the political analyst, Najm Al-Qassab, told Al-Jazeera Net that Al-Sadr has cleared his responsibility for the current popular events, by his decision to retire from political work.

He added that the Federal Court has a session tomorrow, Tuesday, and the crisis may be resolved, by issuing a decision to dissolve the current parliament and choose an emergency government that will oversee the elections, stressing that the continuation of the crisis without issuing a decision to dissolve Parliament may complicate the political scene and may turn into a collision.

Essam Al-Faili, a professor of political science at Al-Mustansiriya University, saw that Al-Sadr retired from the political scene, after he saw the inability of the political class to solve the crisis and favor the interest of the country, noting that Al-Sadr offered several solutions, but no one responded, which led to the complexity of the scene.

He added that al-Sadr left the choice to the Iraqi people, and his supporters expanded the protests, but it requires politicians to deal with this crisis wisely and spare the country a new crisis, noting that the only options presented are to dissolve parliament and hold elections, a step that contributes to ending the crisis and returning al-Sadr's supporters to their homes.

And he indicated that the current political class's failure to respond to the crisis may lead the country to enter a dark tunnel, and all possibilities remain.

As for the political analyst, Sarmad Al-Taei, he says to Al-Jazeera Net, that solving the crisis requires politicians to give up their demands, and move towards accepting the proposal to dissolve parliament and hold early elections, noting that withdrawing Al-Sadr's supporters from the street takes place very easily, after dissolving Parliament through a tweet to Al-Sadr. .

He stressed that there is a fear that there is a party that wants to ignite a civil war inside the country, especially that more bloodshed by ending the demonstrations may increase tension and complicate the political scene in the country.