□ Zhang Chunyou, our correspondent in Russia
August 24 is Ukraine's 31st Independence Day, and it is also the time node of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out for half a year.
At present, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Donetsk and other places is still continuing. The frequent attacks on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant have worried the world, and there is a fierce quarrel over the death of the daughter of the well-known Russian scholar Dukin.
conflict will continue
Six months later, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict still shows no sign of stopping.
On the 24th local time, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in a speech at the SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting that Russia's special military operation against Ukraine is currently proceeding as planned.
In his speech on Independence Day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed Ukraine's tough stance.
He opposes compromises with Russia on territorial issues, including the Crimea peninsula and large swathes of southern and eastern territory that Ukraine lost in the six months after the conflict erupted.
He said "there will never be any compromises and concessions" and vowed to fight to the end.
The current stalemate of the war situation and the scope of its impact have far exceeded the expectations of all parties.
This unexpected evolution also directly affects Russia, Ukraine and NATO's respective gains and losses assessments and strategic planning in the next stage.
At the beginning of April, the international community once saw the dawn of peace.
At that time, Russia and Ukraine made positive progress on many issues after five rounds of talks.
Zelensky publicly stated that Ukraine is willing to give up its efforts to join NATO and hopes to become a "neutral country" under the protection of a "security guarantor"; Alahamia, head of the Ukrainian delegation for the Russian-Ukrainian negotiation, also said in an interview with the media , Ukraine and Russia are close to an agreement, and the two sides are preparing for a direct meeting between the two presidents.
However, just when the reconciliation between the two sides seemed to be "close to the door", the "Buca incident" became the focus of international public opinion without warning.
Western countries used this as an excuse to launch another round of tougher sanctions against Russia.
What's more, the Ukrainian government's stance also quickly turned tough. Zelensky not only reiterated Ukraine's goal of joining NATO, but also called for Russia to be removed from the permanent seat of the UN Security Council.
The hope of peace that seemed to be near at first suddenly became distant.
It can be seen that on the surface it seems that Ukraine is negotiating with Russia, but in fact it is the United States and NATO who are behind the decision and make decisions. As long as they interfere, it will be difficult for Russia and Ukraine to truly negotiate peace.
On the 23rd local time, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said in an interview with the media that some Western countries do not want the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to end, but rather to continue.
Cavusoglu pointed out that not only the United States, but also some NATO countries have this idea.
The disputes do not stop. After half a year of tug-of-war, will the two sides be able to return to the negotiating table?
Analysts believe that, given the very contradictory positions of the parties, there is still no solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
As neither side appears to be considering a ceasefire, "the fighting could continue for years," said Karachov, a Moscow-based political analyst.
However, it remains to be seen how the game of great powers that accompanies this will lead to trade-offs and trade-offs.
Europe is more "injured"
The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been fully manifested in Europe for six months.
The West, especially European countries, has gradually felt the pain of economic and people's livelihood that accompanied the smoke of gunpowder.
The "Russian Yellow Book: Russia Development Report (2022)" jointly released by the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Social Sciences Literature Publishing House pointed out that the European sanctions against Russia have hurt both Russia and Europe, but Europe has been hurt more seriously.
On August 24, local time, French President Emmanuel Macron presided over the first cabinet meeting after the summer vacation.
Macron said that the world is currently undergoing a "major transformation". Affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, drought, fires and other crises, the good days of abundant resources and commodities may come to an end.
The French government and businesses are preparing for a possible energy crisis this winter, the report said.
In July this year, French Economy Minister Le Maire warned that Russia's cut off gas supply was "the most likely thing to happen now", and the government is making contingency plans to this end, including blackouts or power cuts for some companies during the winter.
In fact, not only France, but Europe's ban on Russian coal has taken effect, and the import of Russian oil will be banned by the end of the year, but it is difficult for Europe to wean itself off its dependence on Russian gas in the short term.
The report pointed out that in the past three years, Europe has imported an average of 150 billion to 170 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia every year.
Even if we get rid of Russian gas completely in 5 years, the infrastructure that needs to be invested will take 3 to 5 years to complete.
On August 7, Japan's "Yomiuri Shimbun" published an article entitled "Facing Russia's European Political Situation Into Instability". The author pointed out that European countries continue to confront Russia due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the political situation in the region is becoming increasingly unstable.
Inflation has led to economic instability, and the government's support rate has been low, casting a shadow over the situation in Ukraine where there is no breakthrough in sight.
CNN reported that after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict lasted for half a year, Europeans would prefer to see the war "end before Christmas."
In the coming months, many Europeans will have to "choose between heating and eating".
Given that European countries already host large numbers of Ukrainian refugees, it is difficult for their governments to justify spending money and energy to support a far-flung country.
The United States continues to "arch fire"
Europe is hurt, and its ally, the United States, as the initiator of the Ukrainian crisis, is still fanning the flames, causing the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to expand, prolong and complicate.
Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has been adding fuel to the fire and provoking sanctions, lest the war be extinguished.
As the Financial Times put it in an opinion piece titled “The U.S. Will Be the Ultimate Winner of the Ukraine Crisis,” “The U.S. stands to gain the most from the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, both economically and in terms of security policy.” Economic In an article published by the Scholars Information Service, European countries are turning to the United States to seek alternative suppliers of oil and natural gas in order to limit the import of Russian energy. "The United States is sensing opportunities in the energy field." Large global energy exporter.
According to today's Russian TV report on the 18th, Russia's ambassador to the United States, Antonov, said on the 17th that Western Europe is currently facing a natural gas supply dilemma because the United States has put pressure on the operation of the "Nord Stream-2" natural gas pipeline.
With this move, he said, the U.S. won not so much a victory over Russia as it had against much of Europe's industries, which now have to rely on more expensive U.S. energy.
In addition to the "plenty of money" in the energy sector, the US military industry has also gained a lot.
On the 24th, the U.S. government announced that it would provide Ukraine with about $3 billion in new military aid.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Western countries led by the United States have been continuously sending weapons to Ukraine.
Marcus, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, pointed out that Western arsenals are rapidly depleting, and large orders with U.S. military-industrial enterprises are needed to replenish inventories.
In addition, the urgent needs of other Western countries for weapons and equipment caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have also become the "big cake" that the US military industry is eager for.
In order to meet production needs, "Stinger" missile manufacturer Raytheon, F-35 stealth fighter manufacturer Lockheed Martin, etc. have expressed that they will accelerate the increase in production capacity.
It is reported that benefiting from the tension between Russia and Ukraine and the subsequent escalation of the conflict, the two companies will receive huge profits of up to billions of dollars.
In any part of the world in conflict, there is a shadow of America.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made more and more countries see the true face of this "global chaos machine".