China News Service, August 26 (Reporter Meng Xiangjun) On August 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to increase the number of Russian armed forces by 137,000, and the total number of Russian troops will exceed 1.15 million.

　　The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for half a year. The two sides have fallen into a stalemate, the battle is deadlocked, and it is difficult to put the peace talks on the agenda.

Putin's announcement of military expansion in this context immediately triggered a reaction from Western media.

　　What is the mystery of Putin doing this?

Will the military expansion affect the direction of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

[More than 100,000 additional troops, effective in 2023]

　　At present, in addition to active servicemen serving in the armed forces of the Russian Federation, there are also internal guard troops, border guards, railway troops, and communication troops.

The supreme commander of the Russian Armed Forces is the President of the Russian Federation, currently Putin himself.

Data map: Russian President Vladimir Putin watches the Russian military exercise.

　　According to Russian media reports, documents published by the Russian side show that the presidential decree that took effect on November 17, 2017 stipulates that the number of Russian armed forces is 1,902,758, of which 1,013,628 are active military personnel.

　　The new presidential decree, which will take effect on January 1, 2023, stipulates that the Russian armed forces will include 1,150,628 active servicemen, which means that the number of Russian troops will need to be increased by 137,000.

　　Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out to a reporter from Chinanews.com that the number of troops expanded by Russia this time is more than 130,000. I believe it will not be a single branch of the military, but a systematic and comprehensive force. The expansion of the establishment may occur in various fields, such as adding operators of sophisticated weapons.

　　Recently, the Russian side has strengthened the deployment of military forces in the enclave Kaliningrad, the western and southern theaters, and the deployment of hypersonic weapons.

It can be seen that it faces new security pressures and challenges.

[Western concern, guess Putin's intentions]

　　For Putin's presidential decree, foreign media are very interested in speculation and speculation.

The Associated Press reported that the Kremlin had said that only volunteers could take part in "special military operations" by Russian troops in Ukraine.

Before the Russian army entered Ukraine on February 24, the Russian army had over 400,000 contract soldiers, including about 147,000 ground troops.

Foreign media pay attention to Putin's increase in troops.

Image source: Screenshot of the Associated Press report

　　The Associated Press quoted analysis as saying that if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the Russian military might be "insufficient to maintain operations in Ukraine." Putin's presidential decree reflects the pressure to fill up the military in Ukraine's military operations; Ukraine has announced "the formation of a A million troops" goal.

　　The British "Daily Telegraph" noted that this is Putin's first official military expansion since Crimea joined Russia in 2014.

The paper described Putin "spending billions of dollars" on the missile program to "make the world's deadliest weapon" and contrasted Russia's military buildup with the ongoing reductions in the British military.

　　"You don't do this kind of action when a war is expected to end quickly," The New York Times quoted Marcy Cort, a senior policy fellow at the RAND think-tank, as saying. "This is when planning for a protracted conflict. , doing things."

　　Regarding the Western media's exaggeration of the topic of Russia's military expansion, Zhang Hong believes that this is just the West taking the opportunity to play tricks and hype the "Russian threat theory" in Europe.

He pointed out that the decision to increase troops is a judgment of the Russian Federation Security Council on the security situation inside and outside the country. There is no need to emphasize Putin's personal role, nor to over-hype it.

[Expert: Russia's military expansion in response to NATO]

　　Zhang Hong pointed out that there is an inevitable connection between Russia's military expansion and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but more importantly, it is due to changes in the relationship between Russia and NATO.

On July 28, local time, the general rehearsal of the naval parade was held at the base of the Russian Baltic Fleet.

The picture shows a warship launching an anti-submarine rocket.

　　After the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, Russia and NATO once maintained a basic relationship of dialogue and cooperation.

Russia has been reducing the size of its troops, shrinking its front lines, reducing military expenditures, and investing its state budget in areas such as construction and people's livelihood.

　　Zhang Hong said that in recent years, Russia's willingness and determination to increase its armament has not been particularly strong, because the arms race and military confrontation have put a lot of pressure on the country's finances.

　　However, as NATO continues to expand eastward, expand its sphere of influence and actively win over the post-Soviet countries, the relationship between NATO and Russia has gradually become tense.

After the Crimea incident in 2014, the competition and cooperation between the two sides changed, and NATO began to view Russia as a potential threat.

On February 27, local time, satellite images showed a convoy of Russian military vehicles moving on the outskirts of Ivan Kiev towards Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine.

　　The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made NATO officially start an arms race against Russia in Europe, and both sides have greatly expanded their arms in Europe to prepare for war.

Zhang Hong reminded that, especially at the Madrid summit, NATO proposed to build a rapid response force of 300,000 people in Europe, and at the same time asked all member states to increase military spending to 2% of their own GDP.

At present, the total military expenditure of NATO member states has approached 1.3 trillion US dollars, and it is also preparing to absorb two new members: Sweden and Finland.

　　Obviously, compared with NATO, which is still expanding, Russia's current military equipment and the number of soldiers are facing pressure and challenges.

Therefore, it must respond to adjust deployment, accelerate defense modernization, expand the number of troops, and meet new challenges from NATO.

Zhang Hong said that Russia can be said to be "forced to embark on the road of military expansion."

[Modern warfare does not rely on "human sea tactics"]

　　Zhang Hong also clearly pointed out that whether or not to win in modern warfare does not depend on the number of troops, but on the advanced nature of military equipment and the quality of soldiers and other factors.

Russia lags behind the West in conventional weapons, and its annual military expenditure is very limited compared with the US's more than 800 billion US dollars and NATO's nearly 1.3 trillion US dollars.

　　As the so-called "cannon fires, gold is ten thousand taels", according to reports, the Russian Ministry of Finance released statistics in May that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine lasted for nearly three months, and Russia's defense spending in the first four months of 2022 surged by nearly 40%. 1.7 trillion rubles (about 27.4 billion U.S. dollars), almost half of the 3.5 trillion rubles (about 50 billion U.S. dollars) of the annual budget.

Compared with the United States and NATO, Russia's military spending is indeed insignificant.

Data map: The Russian army held a large-scale cross-service exercise in the Crimea region.

Photo courtesy of the Russian Ministry of Defense issued by China News Agency

　　Zhang Hong further analyzed that at present, Russia and Ukraine are in a military stalemate, and the conflict will continue.

Even if the conflict is over, the Russian military is not strong enough to develop a second battlefield.

Russia wants to maintain its influence as a nuclear power in global security (pattern), but its demands do not match its economic strength.

　　Zhang Hong said that Russia's national security strategy focuses on defense: the first level is to maintain its own security interests and maintain its security influence on neighboring countries such as the post-Soviet space and the CIS countries; the second level is to maintain itself as a military The presence of great powers in hotspots such as Syria, Ukraine and the Black Sea region.

　　He emphasized that with Russia and Ukraine launching shelling near one of Europe's largest nuclear power plants, the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, the issue of nuclear safety and strategic stability should be paid more attention now.

Only by controlling the global arms race and avoiding military confrontation can global peace and security be maintained.

(Finish)