Chinanews.com, Beijing, August 24th, title: Russia-Ukraine conflict for half a year, five variables affect the trend
Author sweet
It has been half a year since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, and so far there is no sign of a ceasefire.
However, this so-called "Europe's largest geopolitical crisis since World War II" has completely changed the world situation: the economies of many countries have not yet emerged from the shadow of the epidemic, and are facing inflation, supply chain disruptions and energy crises; the West and Russia are on the same page. Fire and water have torn apart the already fragile international security landscape.
The strife doesn't stop.
It is widely believed that the planned "blitzkrieg" operation is likely to last for several years.
The upcoming winter may become a "critical node" in the conflict, among which five variables are likely to affect future trends.
Data map: On March 1, local time, two explosions occurred near the TV tower in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine's emergency services said five people were killed in the explosion.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that the broadcast of Ukrainian 24 TV channels and 1+1 TV channels will be affected.
Stretching for half a year
Has the Russia-Ukraine conflict entered a new stage?
Since August, artillery shells have continued to fall near the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in Ukraine, raising concerns about the risk of a nuclear disaster.
As early as March this year, the Russian army claimed to have taken control of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, but for several months, the artillery fire has not stopped, as if there is no microcosm of the dawn of a ceasefire.
On February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a special military operation in the Donbas region. At the end of March, Russia declared that the first phase of the military operation was basically completed and would focus on "liberating" the Udong Donbas region.
With the Russian army advancing step by step, in July, the Russian side had completely controlled Udong Luhansk, and the Ukrainian side admitted that it was lost.
Unlike the Russian army, which seeks to "play steadily", the Ukrainian army has recently turned its offensive focus to the southern front, and has repeatedly released news that a large-scale counter-offensive is brewing.
The Ukrainian side has not officially acknowledged responsibility for the numerous attacks on military bases and ammunition depots in Crimea, but Zelensky said the war "started in Crimea and will end in Crimea."
The British Ministry of Defence predicts that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will soon enter a "new phase", forming a front stretching some 350 kilometers from near Zaporozhye to Kherson.
As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, five major variables may have an impact on the situation in Russia and Ukraine.
FILE PHOTO: Ukrainian soldiers inspect ammunition abandoned by Russian troops as they retreated after the latest battle, near the village of Berezivka, Ukraine.
Variable 1: Ling Dong is approaching
Climate is expected to soon become one of the key variables.
Recently, Ukraine has repeatedly "released the wind", hoping to achieve at least one tactical victory before winter.
Yermak, director of the Ukrainian President's Office, also pointed out that Ukraine must make substantial progress before winter, otherwise the Russian army will have more time to stabilize the battlefield situation, and the Ukrainian army's counterattack will become more difficult.
After all, Moscow once defeated the armies of Napoleon and Hitler with the help of "General Winter". Now, it has energy weapons in its hands, and has repeatedly "repeated natural gas" to make European countries.
Although Europe follows the U.S. energy sanctions against Russia, at present, it is more "backlashed" by sanctions.
Energy bills have soared in many countries, and people are worried about heating in winter.
And the troubled European countries, how much energy is left to support Ukraine?
Bloomberg said bluntly, "No matter what metric (measure) is used, Putin is winning the energy war."
On August 2, local time, in Istanbul, Turkey, the first Ukrainian grain ship entered Turkish territorial waters.
The ship, loaded with more than 26,000 tons of corn, left the port of Odessa on the 1st. After inspection, it will sail to Lebanon.
Variable 2: Inflation Test
The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict is also exacerbating the risk of global inflation, laying “hidden dangers” for future changes in the situation.
International food prices and crude oil prices fell in August, but the gradual cooling of the commodity market was not quickly reflected in people's living costs, and the inflation rate in some countries continued to hit new highs in decades.
According to data released by Eurostat on August 18, the inflation rate of the 19 countries in the euro zone was 8.9% in July, a record high.
At the same time, global food supplies face uncertainty.
Although Russia and Ukraine have rarely reached a grain transportation agreement, and ships carrying hundreds of thousands of tons of Ukrainian agricultural products are shipped from the Black Sea, it is obviously not enough to solve the global "hunger".
UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that at present, Russia's fertilizer and agricultural exports still face "obstacles".
The analysis pointed out that the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has hit the world economy that has not yet recovered from the impact of the new crown epidemic. In addition, related sanctions have pushed up prices in Europe and the United States. The pressure of inflation on the purchasing power of residents is testing the support of various countries for Ukraine.
On June 18, 2022, Ukrainian soldiers opened fire on Russian positions with M777 howitzers provided by the United States.
Variable three: Western military aid
Under the heavy pressure, how much practical assistance can the US and the West provide to Ukraine?
Western media are not quite sure about this, because the Western camp that was originally united is now "split".
On the one hand, the United States is still taking the lead in "arching the fire", including accumulatively providing about $10 billion in military support to Ukraine.
Poland and the Baltic states also continue to advocate full support for Ukraine.
In contrast, many European countries have some "lack of staying power".
France and Germany, in particular, seem more eager to reach a quick negotiated solution.
The "Aid to Ukraine Tracker" database of the Kiel Institute for World Economic Research in Germany also shows that in recent months, the six European countries' aid to Ukraine has plummeted. In July, no new bilateral military aid commitment was provided to Ukraine.
Coffman, director of the Russian Studies Program at the U.S. Center for Naval Analysis, believes that Europe's aid may have reached its limit, which will force the Ukrainian side to go on an "ammunition diet."
FILE PHOTO: A Russian soldier guards the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant area.
Variable Four: Nuclear Disaster Risk
From Chernobyl to the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, the shadows never dissipated.
Recently, the attention surrounding the nuclear disaster has heated up again, and leaders of Britain, France, Germany, the United States and other countries have urged all parties to exercise military restraint.
The largest nuclear power plant in Europe has been under Russian control for a long time, and Ukrainian technicians are responsible for its operation.
However, the two sides have been repeatedly pulling on the offense and defense of nuclear power plants, from real guns to "information warfare".
According to Ukrainian statistics, the Russian army regularly shelled the nuclear power plant area, and due to the Russian attack, many radiation monitoring sensors around the nuclear power plant's spent fuel storage facilities were damaged.
Zelensky also added a "fire", saying that in the event of a nuclear disaster, the whole of Europe would be affected.
The Russian army issued a statement claiming that the Ukrainian army repeatedly used artillery and other attacks on the nuclear power plant area, and questioned the Ukrainian side as a bargaining chip to seek Western support.
Because some diplomats have hinted that the nuclear attack is regarded by Western countries as one of the "red lines" of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, "unless the red line is crossed, (the West) has no will to take further action."
So, will there be a more terrible disaster than the Chernobyl nuclear accident?
At present, preventing the escalation of the situation is still the primary choice of all parties to the conflict.
UN Secretary-General Guterres went to Ukraine to mediate consultations.
French President Emmanuel Macron also had a phone call with Putin, who agreed with the French side's proposal to send a team of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency to the nuclear power plant.
Data map: On March 29, local time, the Russian and Ukrainian delegations launched a new round of face-to-face negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey.
The picture shows Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaking before the talks.
Variable 5: People's backing
In the eyes of some foreign media, the next biggest "variable" may lie in the attitude of people in Western countries.
Some people who originally supported Ukraine are now "fatigued" by the conflict.
Among them, a survey of 10 European countries showed that 42% of respondents believed that the government paid too much attention to Ukraine compared to its own troubles.
Along with this, some diplomats and observers have noticed that some Western countries have avoided specific measures against Ukraine for fear of "cold support" from the people, and have even become increasingly reluctant to speak out against Russia.
However, the cooling of public opinion does not mean the end of the conflict.
Analysts believe that, given the very contradictory positions of the parties, there is still no solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
As neither side appears to be considering a ceasefire, "the fighting could continue for years," said Karachov, a Moscow-based political analyst.
However, it remains to be seen how the game of great powers that accompanies this will lead to trade-offs and trade-offs.
(Finish)