Amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, an analysis of satellite imagery data suggests that attacks by Russian forces in the east appear to have declined significantly since mid-July.

Experts say that it coincides with the time when Ukraine destroyed Russian ammunition depots with weapons provided by the United States, pointing out that the Ukrainian military is making effective use of military assistance and achieving military results. increase.

NHK analyzed the war situation since the start of the invasion in February this year based on the data of the ground heat source observed by the satellite of NASA = National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

This data is usually used to understand the locations of forest fires, but many of them reflect fires caused by battles. In

the three provinces, the number of heat sources


was 2,903 in the 10 days from the 1st to the 10th of early July , ▼


662 in the 10 days ending July 20, and


▼7 . It turned out that there

were 657 cases for the 10 days until the 30th of the


month, which was about 20% less than the beginning of the month.



According to an analysis published on July 16 by the American think tank War Research Institute, Ukraine destroyed the Russian army's ammunition depot using the high-mobility rocket artillery system (Himaas) provided by the United States. Since then, the Russian military's artillery fire has decreased, which is believed to have been reflected in a significant reduction in heat sources.

Expert “Ukrainian attack by Hymers hits Russia”

Sugio Takahashi, head of the defense policy research department at the Ministry of Defense's National Institute for Defense Studies, commented on the apparent decline in attacks by the Russian military, saying, "From Ukraine's point of view, most of Russia's multiple rocket launchers have not been destroyed, and artillery can't be destroyed much. Nonetheless, as far as satellite data is concerned, the fact that the number of attacks has decreased should be interpreted as the fact that the Russian forces on the front line have run out of ammunition and are no longer able to fire. It was destroyed and the ammunition itself was gone."



After that, Takahashi said, ``In order to deal with the situation, the Russian military began to place ammunition in places farther than the range of Hymers, and in several places, but the transportation efficiency decreased, and the number of ammunition that could reach the front line was reduced. As a result, the amount of ammunition that can be shot is decreasing,” he said, pointing out that the attack on the Ukrainian side by the high-mobility rocket artillery system = Hymers is hurting the operation of the Russian military.

What is the satellite heat source data used for analysis?

Think tanks and experts are using the data of the ground heat source captured by the satellite of NASA = National Aeronautics and Space Administration to analyze the war situation in Ukraine.



This data, which observes terrestrial heat sources at a resolution of up to 375 meters square, is commonly used to understand the frequency and location of buildings, forest fires, and more.



In Ukraine, since Russia's military invasion in February, a large amount of heat sources have been observed, especially in areas of intense fighting, and think tanks and experts say they have caught fires accompanying artillery and missile attacks. Analyzing.



Some of the heat sources captured are thought to include military exercises, and not all of them were caused by battles, but since the Russian army withdrew from the capital city of Kyiv in March, Ukraine's heat source Heat sources are gradually increasing in the eastern and southern parts of the country, and you can see how the battle is intensifying.



Based on data visualized by NHK, a weekly map of heat sources shows that in the three eastern provinces, the heat sources are more red during the subsequent three weeks than during the first week of July. You can see that there are fewer places.



Although it is not possible to distinguish between the Ukrainian side and the Russian side of the fire based on the heat source data alone, Sugio Takahashi, head of the Defense Policy Research Laboratory at the Ministry of Defense's National Institute for Defense Studies, said, "Ukraine was attacked by the Russian military. There are a lot of similarities between the location reported and the location of the heat source observed by the satellite." is.