The AfD has one thing ahead of the governing parties: their strategy is clear.

While the SPD, Greens and FDP first have to discuss the basic direction of their policy with every relief package, as was the case with Finance Minister Lindner's proposal to reduce cold progression, the AfD has been drumming in unusual unison for months.

The party hopes to use the fears of many citizens in the face of inflation and the energy crisis to put an end to the long stretch of electoral defeats.

The population is concerned – and this should pay off for the party.

The recipe that the AfD uses is well known and tried and tested.

She continues to fuel the fears of the population with apocalyptic scenarios, and blames the established parties alone for crises.

Translated into the language of the current situation, this means: Germany is on the verge of mass impoverishment.

And: It's not Vladimir Putin's fault, but the federal government.

Last week, deputy AfD chairman Peter Boehringer put it almost textbookly in a press release on Lindner's proposal to curb cold progression: If one really wanted to "actually pursue a policy in the interests of the citizens," wrote Boehringer, then "that would have to be primarily Germany damaging sanctions policy against Russia”.

He concluded with the sentence: "On the other hand, politics continues to solve the problems that it created itself."

The party congress changed the AfD

The grotesque trivialization of Putin has a pleasant side effect for the AfD.

By claiming that the social hardships are entirely homegrown and not also the inevitable consequence of Putin's war and the West's due response to it, it distracts from the fact that it is not a party from which citizens in the current situation are receiving excessive social could expect warmth.

The influence of that trend in the party that calls itself the social patriots and advocates a strong welfare state (only for the traditional population) is growing – but this has not yet been reflected in the program.

Can the AfD's narrative catch on?

The party was always strong when there was great uncertainty among the population, for example during the euro crisis or in the years with many refugees and immigrants.

This equation did not work out in the pandemic.

The party was unable to capitalize on its fundamental opposition to the Corona policy.

The people took the situation too seriously to follow the AfD's conspiracy theory swearing.

Added to this was the self-mutilation of the party, which did not make it any more attractive.

The signs are now different.

The party conference in June changed the AfD.

The party is still deeply divided, but the new board can cover it up tolerably.

Management has become more homogeneous and therefore more effective.

Chairman Chrupalla no longer has to justify his submissive attitude towards Russia, which brought him criticism from party friends at the beginning of the war - it is now the basis for the hoped-for resurgence.

The key question will be whether, if things get bad enough, Germans will be vulnerable to the AfD's cynical nationalism, which says that ultimately it doesn't matter how Ukrainians fare, as long as Germany doesn't suffer.

Chrupalla is confident that time is working for his party: When people only get their heating bills in winter, you will see how long support for the sanctions against Russia lasts.

There is a lack of a well thought-out social policy

The traffic light parties have already spent many billions of euros to prevent Chrupalla from being right.

Many more billions are likely to follow.

But all the evil that Putin's war brings with it, politicians will not be able to avert from the people.

In addition to a well thought-out social policy (which is not yet recognizable), there is a need for politicians who take people's fears away and explain their policies well.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is the most important thing, recently tried calling for solidarity and promising that the state would be there for the people.

"If we stick together, we will make it," he said.

And: "You'll never walk alone." For someone who doesn't tend to have great emotions, that's a lot.

As things stand, the coming months will demand a lot more from Scholz.

People shouldn't get cold in their hearts out of sheer fear of a cold apartment.

The AfD is just waiting for it.