M, SD, L and KD get a combined 49.8, a good percentage point more than S, V, C and MP which land at 48.7.

Translated into mandates, this would mean 177 mandates for the parties that want to see Ulf Kristersson as prime minister, and a majority in the Riksdag. 

Just a week ago, the relationship was the other way around and there are many indications that it will be a close fight in the coming weeks' election campaign with a trend towards more mobile voters and where many decide late.  

- Last time, in 2018, 36 percent of the voters changed parties in relation to the previous election, and that is a record.

It has to do with the fact that there are many voters who do not feel a strong sense of belonging to a party.

It opens up this great mobility, says Tommy Möller, professor of political science at Stockholm University. 

Photo: SVT Graphics

What does this mean for the election campaign and the next three weeks?

- It's really interesting because there is a lot that can happen.

There are great opportunities for the parties to win new voters but also great risks.

If you make a move that doesn't land well, you can lose voters, if a party leader does a bad hearing or a debate that doesn't go well, it can have quick consequences.

So who will form a government in a month is a very open question, says Tommy Möller. 

Up for V

The Social Democrats are still the largest party at 28.5 percent, while the Moderates take second place at 19.6 percent ahead of the Sweden Democrats' 18.8.

- Compared to last week's measurement, the changes are not statistically certain, but if we look back to July, there is a certain decline for S, says Torbjörn Sjöström, CEO of Novus. 

Photo: SVT Graphics

The left party is the one that increases the most, with 2.5 percentage points to 9.7 percent.

The only assured change compared to the survey published last week. 

- It is a clear rise, but above all a recovery.

The party has been stable at the 9-10 percent level for quite some time, and now it is back there, says Tommy Möller, professor of political science at Stockholm University.