Has Germany learned anything from the debacle in Afghanistan?

You have to doubt it when you look at Mali.

There, too, the deployment of the Bundeswehr failed, but German politicians do not want to admit that.

The local military rulers apparently want to get rid of the UN force MINUSMA, so they harass the foreign soldiers wherever they can.

Among other things, this meant that the Bundeswehr contingent could not be replaced for a long time.

New personnel did not arrive until Thursday, but the German mission was still suspended.

Others could not offer that.

The last French soldiers left Mali earlier this week.

This is not only important because the former colonial power was the military backbone of international engagement in Mali.

Without the French initiative, Germany would never have gone to Mali.

Similar to Afghanistan, where the United States was followed, a will to persevere developed in Berlin that went beyond that of the allies.

For a country that until recently had serious doubts about its militarily underpinned foreign policy, this is a remarkable change of heart.

The violence increases

The previous record in Mali does not justify it.

Despite the many international efforts, attacks and violence have steadily increased, and Islamist terrorists are on the rise.

The prospects for sustainable democratization have not been good since the recent coup, even though the regime has announced elections in early 2024.

It has hired the Russian Wagner force to settle things in a way that may have little to do with the UN mission's lofty goals, which are aligned with Western concepts of state and morality.

We will have to agree with French President Macron that fighting terrorism is not possible if the state concerned does not support it.

Above all, however, the question arises as to whether the mission is still in German and Western interests at all.

Of course it would be better if Islamist militias could no longer establish themselves in the Sahel, even if their atrocities so far have primarily affected the region, not Europe.

Fighting terrorism is not part of MINUSMA's mission.

The mission is intended to “support the political process” and help to “stabilize” the country.

These are classic blue helmet tasks.

Germany in particular has always refused to take an active part in the fight against terrorism.

The most recent extension of the mandate remained the same, although the federal government itself noted that a further deterioration in the security situation was to be expected after the end of the French anti-terrorist operations in Mali.

Few asylum seekers from West Africa

The other strategic justification for the mission was that migration to Europe had to be prevented.

Here too, Berlin (and Paris) must have had the experience with Afghanistan in mind.

In the case of Mali and the Sahel region as a whole, however, this has so far been a more theoretical problem.

Applicants from West Africa are not among the top places in the German asylum seeker statistics.

In essence, the same thing is happening here as in the Hindu Kush: the West cannot solve the development problems of non-European, partly pre-modern societies militarily, at least not permanently.

The original American strategy of countering potential dangers with interventions has not worked, neither in Afghanistan nor in Iraq.

Why should she be successful in Mali?

The fact that Berlin in particular has difficulties with this insight is also due to the fact that foreign missions have long saved German politicians from decisions that are even more uncomfortable for them than sending soldiers: strengthening the domestic counter-terrorism defense, securing the external borders or delimitation of pull factors in asylum law.

It is no coincidence that the Green-led Foreign Office in particular wants to stick to the mission.

The turning point includes recognizing that the era of stabilization operations is over.

Even American military strategy only provides for preparation for a possible major war (against Russia or China).

Germany, too, now has to concentrate entirely on national and alliance defense; there has been a very real and major threat here since February 24th.

For countries like Mali, the other tried and tested instruments of foreign policy remain: diplomacy, development aid, economic cooperation.