[Global Times Special Correspondent Liu Yupeng has a heavy responsibilities] When the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reached a stalemate, both Russia and Ukraine have recently claimed to have made "significant progress".

The Russian army recently announced that it has captured two strategically important places in the direction of Donetsk and Kharkov. Russian military experts generally believe that after gnawing on this hard bone, the Russian army will finally win the "Battle of Donbass". to a pivotal role.

The Ukrainian army used the "Haimas" system to attack the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnieper River, hoping to weaken Russia's supply line to the Kherson region.

Ukrainian experts believe that the fate of Kherson will be decided in the next few weeks.

The two important places that Russia has seized are of great significance

  How important is the Russian army's capture of the Pesky settlement in the Donetsk region and the Udi settlement in the Kharkiv region a few days ago?

  Russia's "Viewpoint" reported on the 13th with the title "Why the capture of Pesky will be the key to liberating the entire Donbas", saying that the captured Pesky village has been shelled by the Ukrainian army in northern and western Donetsk for the past 8 years. important base.

After capturing it, the Russian army can accelerate its advance towards cities such as Bakhmut and Soledar.

Russian experts believe that the loss of Pesky threatens the Ukrainian army in Avdeevka.

Now the main task of the Russian army is to capture Avdeevka from the north and south and cut off the supply highway.

Russian military expert Leonkov believes that Pesky is a fortification of the Ukrainian army wedged south of Avdeevka, from which an attack on the strategic city can be launched.

  Russia's "Military Observer" reported on the 14th that a report released by the American Institute of War (ISW) stated that the Ukrainian army is in an extremely difficult situation in the Avdeyevka region west of Donetsk.

This is because Pesky is actually a real fortress of the Ukrainian army.

After the Ukrainian side lost Pesky, the Russian army was attacking Avdeevka from multiple directions, trying to surround the Ukrainian army in the city.

Once the encirclement is formed, the Ukrainian army in Avdeyevka will lose its supply capacity.

At present, the Ukrainian army loses at least 100 personnel in this area every day.

This could lead to a direct Ukrainian withdrawal to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

  Russian "political" expert network reported on the 15th that Russian military observer Yuri Podoljak said that it is very important to take down the settlements of Udi, and the Russian army has completely eliminated the armed personnel who had previously tried to shell Russian territory from there.

After breaking through the Ukrainian defenses in this area, the Russians actually attacked Ukrainian units in Kharkov from the northwest and moved westward.

Ukrainian troops stationed in Kharkiv will face major problems when the Zolochiv area is under Russian control.

  According to the Ukrainian State News Agency, the Ukrainian General Staff reported on the 15th that the Russian army tried to break through the Ukrainian defense in the Kharkiv region that day, but was repelled by the Ukrainian army.

In addition, the offensive of the Russian army in the directions of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Avdeyevka in the Donetsk region was also unsuccessful.

  According to a report by ITAR on the 16th, on the 15th local time, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that the Russian Aerospace Forces attacked a temporary deployment point of foreign mercenaries in Kharkiv Oblast and two command posts in Ukraine, killing more than 100 people. Mercenaries from Poland and Germany.

In addition, the Russian army hit a number of Ukrainian ammunition and fuel depots in the Kharkiv region.

  The British Ministry of Defense summarized the latest Russian-Ukrainian war intelligence on Twitter on the 16th: The surface ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continued to adopt an extreme defensive posture, and patrols were generally limited to the waters within the line of sight of the Crimea coast.

This is in stark contrast to the level of activity of the Russian navy in other waters.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet continues to use long-range cruise missiles to support ground attacks, but currently suffers from the inability to effectively exercise sea control.

The limited combat power of the Black Sea Fleet is undermining Russia’s overall strategy, partly because the Russian army’s “threat” to the amphibious landing in Odessa has basically been eliminated, and the Ukrainian army can transfer resources to put pressure on other Russian ground forces.

"Kherson's fate will be decided in the coming weeks"

  In addition to the Eastern Ukrainian region, Russian and Ukrainian troops have continued to exchange fire in Kherson Oblast in recent days.

The Ukrainian army used the "Haimas" to hit the key bridge through Kherson in an attempt to weaken the Russian supply line through the Kherson area.

Ukrainian experts believe that Kherson's fate will be decided in the next few weeks.

  The US "Newsweek" reported on the 14th that Ukraine used the "Haimas" multiple rocket launcher system provided by the United States to hit the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson State.

The British Ministry of Defence said Ukraine has been working hard to regain two key bridges to the city of Kherson.

The bridge is currently heavily damaged by the fighting.

Last week, a major railway bridge near Kherson was further damaged by a Ukrainian attack.

Although the Russian side managed to repair it, it still cannot be used normally.

At present, the Russian army provides supplies to thousands of Russian troops in the city of Kherson through two pontoon ferry crossings.

The Associated Press reported that the supply inventory in the city of Kherson is likely to be a key factor in determining how long the local Russian military can last.

  The Ukrainian State News Agency reported on the 15th that Ukrainian military expert Alexander Mussinko said that Russian troops were trapped in the right bank part of the Kherson region.

This situation was due to the fact that the Ukrainian army successfully cut off the crossing point of the Russian army.

The Russian army sent 10,000-12,000 additional military personnel to the right bank of the Kherson area and strengthened their positions there.

Now their back path is cut off.

As soon as they tried to repair any bridge or crossing, they were immediately attacked, as they were on the Antonovsky Bridge.

The Ukrainian army will continue to conduct fire control, thereby cutting off the logistical support of the Russian army.

He said that the Ukrainian army has occupied the correct position in the south, which is conducive to destroying the logistics supply of the Russian army and attacking the artillery and ammunition of the Russian army.

  According to Ukrainian news agency on the 15th, Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov said that the fate of the Russian-occupied Kherson region may be decided in the next few weeks.

"If we destroy most of the Russian military's ammunition depot in two weeks and prevent it from transferring equipment to the right bank, then from the third week onwards, we may feel a sharp decline in the Russian military's combat capability, and it is very likely to start," he said. retreat."

  However, in the eyes of the Russian army, the trend of the war situation is not the same as that expressed by the Ukrainian side.

Russia's "Viewpoint" reported on the 16th that Russian Defense Minister Shoigu said at the opening ceremony of the Moscow International Security Conference that day: "The loss of the Ukrainian army is huge, and Kyiv has concealed the real figures, but the testimony of prisoners of war allows us to understand the Ukrainian army. The real situation. Over time, the data will be made public.”

  Shoigu said that the Russian military's "special military operation" broke the myth that the West provided Ukraine with "super weapons".

Initially, the West supplied Ukrainian "Javelin" anti-tank missiles.

Recently, the "Haimas" MLRS and long-range howitzers have been promoted as high-end weapons by the Western media, but these weapons have not had a major impact on the situation.

The "Battle of Donbass" is coming to an end?

  After winning two key locations in the Donbas region, many experts believe that this will have a key impact on the future war in Udong.

Are there any major breakthroughs that could have a strategic impact on the "Battle of Donbass"?

  Russia's "Liberty Media" reported on the 14th that Western intelligence agencies concluded that the Russian army will occupy Odessa, Nikolayev, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk in the autumn.

  An unnamed military expert told the Global Times reporter on the 16th that judging from the current offensive situation of the Russian army, the strategy of "multiple blooming" was adopted in the main direction of Donetsk, and Slavyansk, Important cities such as Kramatorsk, Seversk, Avdeyevka, Bakhmut, and Donetsk launched simultaneous offensives, forming the previous pattern of concentrating superior forces in the Luhansk region to attack city by city In stark contrast, this also fully reflects the urgent psychology of the Russian army to end the war in the Donetsk region as soon as possible.

In the face of the Russian army's near-comprehensive offensive, the Ukrainian army stationed in Donetsk is undoubtedly facing greater pressure than before.

  However, experts believe that it is also necessary to pay attention to the tactical choice of the Russian army's multi-direction and multi-city attack in the Donetsk region, which undoubtedly scattered its own troops and resources, and the Ukrainian army's defense is also relatively strong.

Judging from various public information at present, the offensive operations of the Russian army are mainly carried out around the periphery of these key cities. According to the current combat situation, the Russian army has not yet touched these key cities themselves.

From this point of view, although the Russian media is very optimistic, it may take time to form a real breakthrough.