Despite the popular anger
The political process in Iraq has not made any progress
Supporters of the coordination framework demonstrating in the Green Zone.
AFP
Al-Sadr used the sit-in paper inside the parliament building.
AFP
Sistani preferred not to interfere in favor of one party without the other.
Getty
picture
The two competing Shiite political camps in Iraq are still stuck in a zero-sum competition.
Weeks after the storming of parliament by followers of influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, Iraq's political crisis has shown no signs of abating, despite mounting public anger over the debilitating stalemate that has weakened the country's caretaker government and its ability to provide basic services.
And the only voice likely to be able to end the rift - the supreme religious authority, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani - has remained conspicuously silent.
For now, hundreds of Sadr's supporters are still camped outside the legislative building in Baghdad, ready to escalate if their demands are not met.
Al-Sadr demanded early elections, the dissolution of parliament, and the amendment of the constitution.
The judiciary was given a deadline of the weekend to dissolve the Legislative Council.
His Shiite opponents from the Iran-backed camp have their own terms.
They accused him of violating the constitution, triggering counter-protests that raised fears of bloodshed.
Neither faction appears willing to make concessions to end the 10-month political crisis, the longest since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, to reset the political system.
And the interim cabinet, unable to pass laws or issue a budget, is getting weaker by the day as the public is criticized for poor services, including blackouts during the scorching summer heat.
When al-Sadr ordered thousands of his followers to storm the heavily fortified government district of Baghdad on July 30, he paralyzed state institutions and prevented his political rivals from moving forward with government formation.
The silence of the 92-year-old Sistani may have encouraged Sadr to press on with his challenges, as Sistani is a figure whose word wields enormous influence among leaders and ordinary Iraqis.
Three officials at the Sistani School in the holy city of Najaf say that Al-Sistani did not use his influence because he did not want to appear biased towards one party over the other in a severe internal Shiite crisis since 2003. One of the officials says, referring to Al-Sistani, "The reference is watching the situation with concern."
He believes that Al-Sistani "will not interfere at the present time. Some may interpret his intervention as preferring one party over the other."
Sistani rarely interferes in political affairs, but when he does, he may change the course of Iraqi politics.
In 2019, his sermon led to the resignation of then-Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi amid massive anti-government protests, the largest in Iraq's modern history.
Then, Mustafa Al-Kazemi's administration was sworn in with the aim of holding early elections that took place in October.
The official in Najaf says Sistani is tired of the current Iraqi political dynamics.
He did not resume his usual Friday sermons that were suspended during the pandemic.
His doors are still closed to the political elites in Iraq, indicating that he does not agree with them.
The religious school in Najaf is also divided around al-Sadr.
Some fear that his boldness may deepen the Shiite divide, and others agree with his reformist anti-corruption rhetoric.
Dozens of seminary students recently joined the protests.
Officials believe that Sistani has red lines that, if crossed, would force him to intervene.
It includes bloodshed and attempts to undermine what is seen as the foundations of democracy in Iraq.
One of the officials said: "Al-Sadr knows these red lines and will not cross them."
Even if Shiite opponents agree to hold elections, basic disagreements over electoral rules remain.
There is no legal precedent to guide decision makers.
Al-Sadr hinted that he would escalate the protests if the judiciary did not dissolve parliament by the end of the week.
The judiciary says it does not have the power to dissolve the legislature.
His opponents in the Coordinating Framework Alliance, which is made up of Shiite parties largely backed by Iran, claim that al-Sadr's pressure on the judiciary is unconstitutional.
They do not object to new elections provided there is national consensus on how the vote should be conducted.
Such a consensus seems far-fetched.
Ordinary Iraqis are increasingly frustrated that the caretaker government is struggling to provide basic services, such as electricity and water.
The political crisis comes at a time of increasing unemployment, especially among Iraqi youth.
The country has suffered from successive droughts that have severely damaged agricultural and fishing industries, leading to a decline in job opportunities.
Protests in southern Iraq turned violent last week after stone-throwing protesters clashed with security forces outside oil fields in Maysan and Dhi Qar provinces.
More than a dozen demonstrators were arrested, and more than a dozen members of the security forces were injured.
• Officials believe that Sistani has red lines that, if crossed, will force him to intervene. It includes bloodshed and attempts to undermine what is seen as the foundations of democracy in Iraq. One of the officials said: "Al-Sadr knows these red lines and will not cross them."
• Even if Shiite opponents agree to hold elections, basic differences over electoral rules remain in place. There is no legal precedent to guide decision makers.
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