Half a year after its outbreak

The Russo-Ukrainian war is still on

• Both the Russian and Ukrainian sides suffered heavy casualties in this war.

  AFP

• A Russian missile is launched towards an area in Kharkiv, Ukraine.

  AFP

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The Russian war on Ukraine continues unabated and without a clear horizon for its end, in light of almost daily losses incurred by both sides and repercussions on the world as a result of that war.

Half a year into the Russo-Ukrainian war, two opposing interpretations of what is happening on the ground are increasingly shaping Western views of the conflict, researchers Raphael Cohen and Gian Gentile say in a report published by the RAND Corporation.

The first view, and seems to be the most dominant one, is that the Russians are slowly but surely destroying the Ukrainian defensive lines at Donetsk and Luhansk, striking the defenders with their massive stockpile of artillery, and slowly but methodically gaining ground.

This view also claims that Ukraine now finds itself on the verge of exhaustion, having incurred significant losses in life and equipment.

Thus, the only wise course of action is to seek some sort of negotiated settlement, in essence, a land swap for temporary peace, before the bad situation gets worse.

A second, more optimistic view turns this on its head and sees a Ukrainian victory unfold over the coming months. This interpretation indicates that the Russian advance has stalled along the 1,000-kilometre front, and that Ukraine has used the long-range precision artillery supplied by the West. Such as the American high-mobility artillery missile system, or "HIMARS", to neutralize Russia's main military advantage by striking Russian artillery ammunition depots behind the front line, and it appears that Ukrainian forces are preparing for a major attack, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that it will fall around the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine. The West's best policy, therefore, is to double supply and allow Ukraine to defeat Russia.

Over the past six months, the Western debate over whether to negotiate peace or engage in a longer war has become increasingly heated.

Defenders of the settlement view continued support for Ukraine as wishful thinking or worse, while those in the second camp view the former as defeatist and appeasement of a dangerous power.

It is clear that both interpretations cannot be true simultaneously, even if we take into account the uncertainty amid the fog of war.

So what is really happening on the ground?

There has been such intense focus on Ukraine’s loss of two important cities in the east, Severodonetsk and Lyseshansk this summer, that it was easy to overlook the broader picture, and setting aside small Russian territorial gains, the overwhelming reality is a general stagnation on the battle lines, and there is good reason. This stalemate is that both sides are exhausted and unable to deliver a fatal blow.

And if the next phase of the war is characterized by a similar gradual change on the ground, the question becomes which side is best able to sustain a slowly grinding war of attrition, which in turn depends on three main factors: materiel, manpower, and above all morale and the will to fight.

Of the three, the researchers add, the balance of weapons and ammunition is perhaps the easiest to measure.

According to Oryx, a military analysis website that narrowly tracks visual confirmation of destroyed equipment, Russia has lost significantly more heavy equipment than Ukraine, including nearly four times the number of tanks and five times the number of armored combat vehicles.

Even as it adapts to Russia's surprisingly weak ability to control the information environment, large disparities are likely to remain.

What's more, Ukraine still enjoys extensive Western military support, and thus can compensate for its material losses.

By contrast, Russia lacks strong foreign support, and China in particular has refrained from providing Russia with weapons or other supplies, and Ukrainian artillery strikes on Russian depots and supply lines inflict heavy losses on Russian artillery capabilities, one of the main pillars of combat power. Although Russia is capable of consuming massive Soviet-era equipment, this stock is also limited.

The balance of manpower is somewhat more ambiguous because both sides have been cautious about their real losses, and we know that the casualties from the conflict have been staggering, and while Ukrainian losses are believed to be somewhat higher than Russian losses, it is estimated that both sides are losing hundreds of soldiers daily.

Although Russia could theoretically count on a population more than twice that of Ukraine, Moscow may not be able to draw on its larger pool of manpower.

Ukraine sees this war as existential.

At the start of the war, the government prevented most men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country in preparation for military conscription.

According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukraine mobilizes a combat force of one million people, including about 700,000 people in the armed forces and another 300,000 people in other parts of the security apparatus, such as the police and border guards, even if not all of these personnel are committed. Right on the front lines and they are likely to be trained unevenly, it still represents a huge commitment.

By contrast, Russia has taken no similar steps, and the Kremlin has promoted the war to the Russian people as a “special military operation,” not a full-scale war, and reversing course and sending recruits to fight in this optional war would greatly increase the risk of discontent. the local.

• Ukraine sees this war as existential, and at its inception, the government prevented most men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country;

Preparation for military enlistment.

• Over the past six months, the Western debate over whether to negotiate peace or engage in a longer war has become an increasingly heated one.

Defenders of the settlement view continued support for Ukraine as wishful thinking or worse.

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