Foreign Policy magazine published an article by a prominent analyst at the New Lines Institute in which he believes that with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict approaching its sixth month, Turkey has emerged as a major player in the protracted war, as Ankara participates in the struggle on a number of fronts, from cooperation security with Ukraine to energy cooperation with Russia to act as a diplomatic mediator between Kyiv and Moscow.
Analyst Eugene Chuskovsky stated that it was Turkish diplomacy that facilitated grain shipments from Ukraine's ports on August 1, the first since the beginning of the war.
He said that this increasingly proactive approach to the conflict presented real opportunities and major challenges for Ankara, while providing important lessons for the West on how to deal with Russia more effectively.
Ankara has long sought to take advantage of its strategic location at the crossroads of transcontinental routes between Europe and Asia, as well as to emphasize the concept of connectivity.
Functionally, Turkey serves as a vital transit corridor for key resources such as energy and food supplies, and this corridor has become even more important due to the economic and trade turmoil of the Russian war in Ukraine.
Institutionally, Turkey is a vital member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) security bloc, but it operates independently, sometimes in conflict with the position of its American and European partners, including its relationship with Western opponents such as Russia and Iran.
This increasingly proactive approach to the conflict has presented real opportunities and major challenges for Ankara, while providing important lessons for the West about how to engage Russia more effectively.
Chuskovsky noted that under the leadership of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ankara has taken advantage of both forms of contact to bolster its position as a regional power, one that does not quite fit the pro-Western or pro-Russian camp.
Turkey supplies Ukraine with large quantities of weapons, including TB2 Bayraktar drones, which have proven effective in helping Ukrainian forces attack Russian positions.
Meanwhile, Ankara did not join the West's sanctions against Russia in response to the Ukrainian invasion, and Erdogan discussed expanding Turkish-Russian energy cooperation.
The writer considered that the most important role of Turkey was perhaps the role of mediator in the issue of grain and food supplies between Moscow and Kiev, and thus Turkey's strategic communication approach produced significant benefits, allowing Ankara not only to liberate foodstuffs, but also to strengthen its diplomatic position in the process.
Ankara has certainly improved its leverage vis-à-vis Moscow in the Eurasian theater (as evidenced by Turkey’s pivotal role in including itself as a major player in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict), but it is clear that Russia is willing to act against Turkey’s interests when it sees fit, whether in Ukraine or Syria. or elsewhere.
The writer concluded his article that the Turkish strategy is still yielding serious results. With grain shipments now beginning, Ukrainian officials have proposed expanding the agreement to include the export of other commodities such as minerals.