Because of the divisions experienced by the "movement"
Serious confrontations between the "Taliban" factions threaten a civil war in the country
The Taliban failed to achieve economic stability in the country.
AFP
The Taliban faces challenges including women's rights and the population's access to education.
AFP
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About a year after assuming the reins of power in Afghanistan, following the withdrawal of US and international forces, signs of division appeared on the Taliban movement despite its relentless efforts to show itself as a united entity before the international community.
The researcher and director of the Afghanistan Studies Center at the University of Global Economy and Diplomacy, Akram Umarov, said in a report published by the American magazine "National Interest", "The ease with which the (Taliban) managed to overthrow Ashraf Ghani's government from power created an illusion about the movement's strength, cohesion, and willingness to fully control the country." country.
The international community expects the Taliban to bring stability to Afghanistan and to place the entire country under reliable control in order to establish the sole authority and eliminate security challenges such as terrorism and drug trafficking.
Umarov, whose research covers security studies, conflict management, public diplomacy, and development issues in Central Asia and Afghanistan, adds, “However, the US strike on al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri raises questions about the movement's credibility.
In the 11 months since the Taliban came to power, the movement has faced a number of serious internal problems, including increased factional clashes over engagement with foreign partners, the rise of Pashtun nationalism and the exodus of ethnic minorities from the movement, and its inability to stabilize the state administration system. ».
First, almost from the moment the Taliban seized power, there have been systematic clashes within the group over its leadership.
In the process of distributing leadership positions in the state, the (Taliban) faces a serious confrontation between the various factions.
Despite Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar's previous success in leading the Taliban, he was demoted to a minor position as Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs.
Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister for Political Affairs, Abdul Kabir, enjoys broad authority and the confidence of the country's top leadership.
"As a result of the increasing influence and presence in the power structures of radical and ideological factions regarding women's rights, access to education and freedoms of the population, the new Afghan government did not comply with the requirements of the international community," Umarov says.
On the other hand, among the more moderate leaders are Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Baradar, Minister of Mining and Oil Sheikh Shihab-al-Din Dilawar, and Deputy Foreign Minister Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai.
Meanwhile, influential Taliban figures such as Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoub are trying to maneuver between these two opposing camps without joining either.
Second: There has been a clear trend within (the Taliban) in the past few months towards consolidating and significantly expanding the role of Pashtun nationalism.
While the Taliban were previously able to recruit Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Hazaras in the north and elsewhere to further their goals, the movement's leadership is still dominated by the same radical Pashtun leaders who ruled Afghanistan in the 1990s, and they oppose compromising on ideology and the balance of power.
If the Taliban can find a formula to unite these factions, it will be able to strengthen the regime, otherwise this trend will weaken the group's grip on the country and may encourage some non-Pashtun groups to openly oppose the Taliban.
Umarov believes that one of the most important factors in the success of the Taliban in the summer of 2021 was the fact that Uzbek and Tajik groups joined the movement in northern Afghanistan, and were able to effectively neutralize any resistance from the local warlords and armed forces in Kabul.
However, in recent months, Makhdoom Alam, a Taliban leader of Uzbek origin, has been persecuted.
In March, Haji Mali Khan, Sirajuddin Haqqani's uncle, was appointed deputy chief of staff of the Taliban's armed forces to oversee Kari Salahuddin Ayubi, the Tajik commander of the armed forces.
Tensions have also risen between the movement and Afghanistan's ethnic Hazara minority.
In addition to a series of terrorist attacks directed against this ethnic group, some Hazara collaborators with the Taliban were recently subjected to undue persecution.
If the movement's leadership cannot find a way to solve the ethnic problems internally, a large number of the non-Pashtun armed forces of the Taliban could join the ranks of the resistance groups or terrorist organizations stationed in Afghanistan.
Third, despite staying in power for a year, the Taliban failed to demonstrate the ability to effectively govern the country.
The Taliban, being a movement with a mostly horizontal hierarchy, has always had a decentralized system of government.
The Taliban forces operated on the ground as part of a single strategy approved by the leadership.
However, at the same time, it had significant autonomy in terms of choosing tactics to achieve its goals and independently defining its operational tasks.
This approach to the administration attracted a wide range of hardliners opposed to Ashraf Ghani's government, and helped the Taliban achieve its goals at the time.
In general, in the past few months, a major split has occurred in different directions within the Taliban.
Increasing confrontation between different factions over issues related to strategy, ideology, cooperation with the outside world, and the inclusion of non-Pashtun ethnic groups in leadership positions is weakening the Taliban's strength, making a split within the movement increasingly likely.
The Taliban government faces systemic challenges under these circumstances, and is unlikely to overcome them in the near future.
Umarov says that "this dispute is expected to intensify the struggle for power between the various factions of the movement."
And if influential external actors become disappointed with the Taliban's inability to solve the challenges facing the country, support for opposition forces could increase dramatically.
Accordingly, this may lead to a new round of a large-scale civil war based on inter-ethnic confrontation.
The Taliban, whose extremist ideology and hardline stance are gradually moving towards international isolation, cannot be excluded from this path.
However, by engaging in a reliable and open dialogue with the outside world, offering security guarantees to neighboring countries, cooperating in good faith in the fight against terrorism, and strengthening trade relations with other countries, the Taliban may be able to overcome its challenges and become a full member of the international community.
• The same extremist Pashtun leaders who ruled Afghanistan in the 1990s, opposing compromising ideology and the balance of power, still dominate the movement's leadership.
• Despite staying in power for a year, the Taliban failed to demonstrate the ability to rule the country effectively. The Taliban, being a movement with a mostly horizontal hierarchy, has always had a decentralized system of government. The Taliban forces operated on the ground as part of a single strategy approved by the leadership. However, at the same time, it had significant autonomy in terms of choosing tactics to achieve its goals and independently defining its operational tasks. This approach to the administration attracted a wide range of hardliners opposed to Ashraf Ghani's government, and helped the Taliban achieve its goals at the time.
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