LONDON
– The energy crisis has turned into a nightmare for European countries as winter approaches, due to Russia reducing its gas supplies through the “Nord Stream” line to a minimum and the European Union’s decision to rely on Russian gas by 15% by the end of this year, prompting a number of governments Western countries to take precautionary measures to confront this crisis.
For its part, the Spanish government issued a decision to prevent lighting archaeological sites at night, prevent shops from lighting their windows after ten at night, and determine the degree of heating in government facilities, as did Germany, which decided to reduce energy consumption in the capital Berlin by 10%, and the capital, Paris, faces the risk of interruption. Electricity for some neighborhoods during the winter.
Energy expert Antoine Halfe (Getty Images)
In the face of this crisis, which the European Union says is due to Russia's "arming the gas card", expectations indicate that the old continent will enter the worst winter in decades.
Al Jazeera Net interviewed energy expert Antoine Halfe, senior researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy and a professor at Columbia University, about the developments of this crisis and its repercussions on political and economic stability in Europe.
wrong decisions
In the beginning, Antoine Halfe explains the reasons for the energy crisis that Europe is suffering from as a crisis that cannot be linked to the Russian decision to reduce gas supplies only;
It is a multi-level crisis, and stems from the accumulation of many factors taken by European countries, “among them, for example, stopping oil and gas exploration in a number of regions, the decision to stop investing in hydrocarbon energy sources, and moving towards clean energies that need years to show their fruits, All this contributed to Europe's high dependence on Russian energy sources, especially gas."
The professor at Columbia University asserts that the war in Ukraine further deepened this crisis, and "accelerated the emergence of European dependence on Russian energy, and the situation would have been worse in the coming years, because Europe would have invested more in gas pipelines had it not been for the outbreak of war."
Antoine Halfe predicted that Europe would experience a real crisis during the coming winter, and "the chances of a severe energy supply crisis this winter seem frighteningly high," explaining that the main problem is the current decline in Russian gas supplies, and the possibility of a total halt to all natural gas supplies coming from Russia to the west.
He highlighted the German model, as the government in Berlin "has not yet stored the gas it needs, and was counting on the continued flow of 40% of Russian gas, but this percentage is no longer guaranteed, which may exacerbate the crisis."
division or unity
Antoine Halfe distinguishes between two levels in Europe's energy crisis, the first in the long term, and believes that "it is not impossible for Europe to compensate for the complete interruption of Russian gas exports, but this matter requires hard work, a high degree of coordination and an exceptional effort from Cooperation between the economies most dependent on Russian gas and those least dependent on it.
As for the second level, it is in the short term, where fears of an energy deficit during the coming winter, which, he says, "will prompt each country to defend its interests first, and that the strongest countries in the Union are the most dependent on Russian gas, such as Germany and Italy, and this The dispute is likely to undermine the unity of the European Union, in the face of the pressures of diminishing supply of energy sources, as much as it may be an opportunity to strengthen Europe if it emerges from this crisis victorious and cooperative, and for this it is a historic and defining moment.
payment
Antoine Halfe also stressed that the repercussions of the energy crisis differ in European countries according to the degree of their dependence on Russian energy sources, and at the top of the list there are Germany and Italy, both of which depend heavily on Russian gas. It is difficult for them to overcome this crisis, and this may have internal political repercussions."
There are some Eastern European countries, which depend more on Russian gas and oil, but of course, the level of gas consumption of these countries is much lower compared to both Germany and Italy;
Thus, its abandonment of Russian gas would not create a major crisis within the European Union.
Then there are the countries of southern Europe, especially France and Spain, both of which are less dependent on Russian gas and will not be affected much by this crisis.
Antoine Halfe stresses that European countries will pay the price before achieving independence from Russian gas, and says, "There is a price that must definitely be paid, whether it comes to a coordinated action plan between the European Union countries, or as a result of an unorganized response to market imbalances and Russian decisions, it will have to Europe should reduce its use of Russian gas this winter, whatever the cost,” he said, noting that “it must be emphasized that measures to reduce energy consumption during the winter season will not be sufficient to solve this crisis, and other drastic measures must be taken to solve this crisis.”