Sudan.. Multiple initiatives for settlement and the crisis continues

KHARTOUM -

Against the backdrop of continuous street protests, Sudanese initiatives aimed at calming the situation and ending the increasing political tension over the past ten months are proliferating without a glimmer of a solution on the horizon. Multiple settlement attempts.

Sudan has entered into a severe political crisis since last October 25, following the decision of the army chief, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, to end the partnership with the Declaration of Freedom and Change Alliance (the ruling coalition), and freeze all relevant texts in the constitutional document, declaring a state of emergency, and then arresting a large number of Ministers, including Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who was placed under house arrest on the pretext of the need to implement reform measures and expand power sharing.

But Al-Burhan’s decisions were described as a military coup, and were met with outrage in the street that is still continuing in the form of almost weekly protests, demanding the restoration of power to civilians and retribution for those killed during these demonstrations.

In order to stop the increasing escalation in the street and fill the constitutional vacuum in the country, several local and international initiatives were put forward, but most of them did not win the agreement of the quarreling parties.

And last December alone, 4 initiatives were put forward from different fronts, as the National Umma Party presented a road map for a solution that tried to build on the Burhan-Hamdok agreement concluded on November 21, but the initiative was the subject of fierce criticism for the refusal of many forces to accompany the military in Any project to solve.

The map included consensus on a full return to the constitutional document, commitment to the Juba Peace Agreement, in addition to other items, and then opening a dialogue between the partners of the transitional period with regional and international monitoring, but these Umma Party endeavors stopped immediately upon Hamdok's resignation at the beginning of the year, although the party leaders kept talking during Subsequent statements on the urgent need to implement those provisions to end the crisis situation.

The professors of the University of Khartoum also put forward an initiative founded on the complete rejection of the army’s actions and the subsequent understandings between Al-Burhan and Hamdok, and the agreement of all parties to the conflict and the components of the revolution on the principle of the transitional justice project. And the success of the transitional period to reach a sustainable civil transformation, which are almost the same points included in the Umma Party’s initiative.

Later, another initiative was proposed by the directors of Sudanese universities, which called for the unification of all previous initiatives in one matrix according to axes that include constitutional entitlements, peace and legal and constitutional procedures, with the formulation of a document that brings together all political forces, as it was planning to present a road map to reach an agreement on the minimum to resolve the political crisis. .

It is noted that these initiatives were halted after the United Nations Integrated Mission in Sudan announced last January the launch of a political process, which it said was not aimed at presenting a draft solution, but rather facilitating consultations on how to move towards democracy and peace, paving the way for a process that could secure an agreement between Various political, civil and military forces on the means of democratic transition.

With the majority of Sudanese parties welcoming the United Nations’ move, the Central Council of the Freedom and Change Alliance, the Resistance Committees and the Professionals Association did not show enthusiasm towards it, because it made the military part of the solution, so the Freedom and Change Coalition stressed that the movements of the UN mission should aim to “end the coup situation.” And making new constitutional arrangements. He also called for expanding the initiative to establish a high-level international mechanism in which the regional and international parties are represented by influential personalities.

Indeed, the UN initiative expanded with the entry of the African Union and IGAD to become a tripartite mechanism, but its steps faltered after muffled disputes between its parties over who was entitled to participate in these consultations, and then officially stopped after the announcement of the military on the fourth of last July Withdrawing from the political negotiations, direct dialogue sessions between Freedom and Change and the Military Committee also ended without an agreement, after the United States and Saudi Arabia mediated for their success.

And last March, the organization of the Revolutionary Front - which includes civil forces and armed movements that were fighting the regime of ousted President Omar al-Bashir - presented an initiative for a solution that advocated a two-stage dialogue, and stipulated, among other items, to agree on new procedures that include observations by the parties to the peace process. Under which to amend the constitutional document without prejudice to the Juba Peace Agreement.

However, the coordination committees of the resistance committees in Khartoum rejected the "revolutionary" initiative, saying that it does not reflect the aspirations of the people, but rather it is a "negotiating position and an attempt to stay in the scene because it knows that the coup is imminent."

A property owner presented a 3-stage initiative (Anatolia)

real estate initiative

In an initiative that is not very different, the head of the popular movement, Malik Agar, put forward his own vision of a 3-stage settlement last July, and although his movement is part of the organization of the Revolutionary Front, it was not understood that he presented a separate initiative.

The move by Aqar - a member of the Sovereignty Council - came days after the army announced its withdrawal from the dialogue, proposing that its first phase include the leaders of the army, freedom and change and the movements that signed the peace agreement, to define the tasks of state entities, led by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.

The second phase of the Aqar Initiative was devoted to the formation of a government of national competencies, entrusted with the tasks of addressing the economic situation, completing peace, addressing corruption, reforming the civil service, and preparing for elections, and it was suggested that the third be the stage of comprehensive dialogue.

Agar's ideas converge with the "Freedom and Change" vision, as the latter proposed a 3-stage dialogue, the first devoting to ending the coup with the participation of the resistance and army leaders, and the second to constitutional arrangements to which armed movements would join, and the third to set the path of civil authority with the participation of all forces that believe in democracy.

Professor of Political Science, Musab Muhammad Ali: The crisis will turn to complexity with the possibility of it reaching a stage that imposes a new reality (Al Jazeera)

few chances

Currently, moves are intensifying from different fronts to support the initiative of the good religious leader presented under the title "The People of Sudan for National Accord", which is working to invite all parties to a round table on the basis of which an agreed government is formed to manage the transitional phase.

These moves met with the support of political parties, led by the "Unionist Origin" party, which announced the integration of a previous initiative of party leader Muhammad Othman Al-Mirghani into the "People of Sudan" initiative to expand the base of participation and achieve consensus.

Despite the large mobilization of the initiative, the chances of its success seem slim in light of the participation of parties affiliated with the isolated regime in its details and the army commander’s announcement of his blessing for it, while the Central Council for Freedom and Change and the National Consensus Forces decided to boycott it as it is nothing but a front for the isolated regime and its aides, and an attempt to create a new incubator. for the military."

According to Professor of Political Science at Al-Neelain University, Musab Muhammad Ali, the lack of acceptance of multiple local and international initiatives is the result of different assessments and differences in the interpretation of the different parties to the origin of the crisis, and the lack of confidence plays a role in the lack of agreement on the success of these moves.

In his speech to Al Jazeera Net, he points out that the vision of the political actors of reality after last October 25 is different, some of them demand an end to the coup, while others see what happened as a correction of the course, in addition to that, some initiatives were presented by parties that are part of the political conflict, and therefore stumbled and finished.

Unless there is an initiative that brings together the ideas that were presented in previous initiatives, there will be no solution, according to Musab, who adds, "The crisis will turn to complexity with the possibility of it reaching a stage that imposes a new reality."