Judith Bergman: The Biden administration should adopt a different strategy
Political analyst: Despite the international embargo, the North Korean threat is increasing
The North Korean president continues to defy America.
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North Korea has not complied with Western sanctions.
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Despite a UN Security Council resolution that banned years ago from conducting ballistic missile tests, North Korea continued to develop its nuclear and missile programs in 2021, according to a new UN report.
Journalist, lawyer and political analyst Judith Bergman said in an analysis published by the American Gatestone Institute that North Korea launched, in January alone, a record number of missiles, amounting to 11 missiles, including two hypersonic missiles, and the first launch since 2017. The Hwasong-12 is a mobile, medium-range ballistic missile that can reach the US, with an approximate range of 4,500 km.
In 2017, North Korea tested the Hwasong-15 missile, which has an approximate range of 8,500 to 13,000 km.
US and South Korean officials have expressed concern, and the Hwasong-12 missile test has made it clear that North Korea will resume testing ICBMs and nuclear weapons.
In addition, it was reported that North Korea has an underground base, which is used to hold ICBMs, only 25 kilometers from the border with China.
According to analysts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the site was chosen to deter any preemptive attacks by the United States against al-Qaeda, to avoid provoking Beijing.
"The location near the Chinese border represents a potential deterrent to any preemptive attack that might touch China's core security capabilities," said Victor Sha, a North Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"In today's world when many countries are wasting their time in dealing with the United States, and are in a state of blind submission, surrender and obedience, there is only our country on planet Earth that can shake the world by launching a missile that can Its range reaches the American soil.. There are more than 200 countries in the world, but few of them have hydrogen bombs, ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles.”
Pyongyang has said in the past that the Hwasong-12 missile can carry a heavy, large warhead.
On the other hand, eight members of the Security Council, namely: the United States, Albania, Brazil, France, Ireland, Norway, the United Arab Emirates, Britain - and Japan, described the launch of the "Hwasong-12" missile as a "major escalation that seeks to further destabilize the region." ».
China also urged "flexibility" with North Korea.
"They should pursue more attractive, pragmatic and flexible methods, policies and behaviors in dealing with North Korea's concerns," said China's representative to the United Nations, Zhang Jun.
"The key to resolving this issue really lies in the hands of the United States," he added.
"China's urging to be 'flexible' on North Korea appears to match the ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party in the region," Bergman says.
It is even possible that North Korea's latest actions were encouraged by China."
"China, in general, wields significant influence over the ruling Kim family in North Korea and can, as a practical matter, ask the North Koreans to do whatever it wants," China expert Gordon Chang wrote.
According to some analysts, China has been instrumental in realizing North Korea's nuclear weapons program.
Peter Hussey, director of strategic deterrence studies at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, says that “the North Korean nuclear program began in 1965 with the Soviet construction of a five-megawatt nuclear reactor;
But it was Chinese and Pakistani aid that enabled North Korea to begin building a 50-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon, and a secret processing facility, in the mid-1980s.
"According to intelligence reports disclosed to Congress, there are five major banks and a specially created holding company that finance North Korea's missile and nuclear technology programs," Hosey said.
Bergman notes that China's strategic concern, with regard to the Korean Peninsula, appears to be related to ending the American presence there, and removing it from the hands of the United States, so that China can eventually establish itself as the dominant state in the region.
There are currently about 28,500 US troops in South Korea.
It is the third largest overseas presence for the United States, after Japan and Germany.
North Korean escalation, in the form of increased missile tests and a resumption of ICBMs and nuclear tests to pressure the United States to make concessions, would directly benefit China, enabling it to replace the United States and establish itself as the main power in the region.
Marcus Garlauskas, a senior non-resident fellow at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security of the Atlantic Council, who served for nearly 20 years in the US government, and whose job was to deal with everything related to North Korea, explained that if the administration of President Joe Biden wants to resolve the threat As North Korea is growing, it will have to start behaving differently.
It will have to abandon the same basic North Korean strategy that the United States has used for two decades.
"This strategy focuses on achieving a strategic decision by Pyongyang, to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program, and regarding Beijing's cooperation in achieving the necessary economic leverage," he added.
It appears that China has no interest in cooperating with the United States on North Korea.
Bergman stressed that any new US strategy must fully recognize China's role as a supporter of North Korea to achieve the strategic goals of the Chinese Communist Party in the region.
It is clear that China cannot be relied on to voluntarily use its influence to persuade the Korean leader to abandon his missile and nuclear program.
To resolve this matter, it is essential that the United States use means that leave China no choice but to cooperate on North Korea.
"One very effective way is to isolate large Chinese banks and companies that support North Korea's missile and nuclear technology from the global financial system, by classifying them as a money laundering concern, according to Section 311 of the (Patriot Act)," said Godon Chang, an expert on China. )».
Bergman concluded her analysis by saying that US policymakers know how to get China to start acting responsibly.
The question now is, will the Biden administration have the political will to subject those big Chinese banks to classification under the Patriot Act?
It has been reported that North Korea has an underground base that is used to hold ICBMs, just 25 kilometers from the border with China.
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An American soldier is currently stationed in South Korea.
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