The nature of the dragon in Western culture and mythology is different from its nature in its Chinese counterpart, and dragons - according to Western legend - have always been monsters symbolizing evil, flying and fire-breathing, greedy, and keeping hills of gold and other precious treasures.

The dragon was also used as a symbol of war, carried by a Viking ship or dragon ship to transport Viking warriors on their raids across Europe.

On the other hand, the Chinese myth about the dragon denies the breath of fire, but the dragons of Chinese mythology are famous for invoking the rain. Others are associated with rain, wind, clouds, fog, thunder and lightning.

The historical myths of China are still present in the belief of the Chinese, whether on the Chinese mainland or on the island of Taiwan today, or among the Chinese communities around the world, including the United States;

But it seems that the administration of President Joe Biden is seeking to demonize the Chinese dragon, so that it becomes similar to the legend of the Western dragon that breathes fire instead of summoning rain, encouraged by its success in provoking the Russian bear to invade Ukraine .. Will the dragon follow the example of the bear?

poke the bear

The straw that broke the camel’s back in pushing Russia to invade Ukraine was the signing by the United States and Ukraine of the Strategic Partnership Charter last November, which confirmed “America’s support for Kyiv’s right” to pursue membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Ukraine is closer to NATO than ever before, a prospect that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated - when signing the agreement - that it stipulates that "the United States reaffirms its commitment to preserving Ukraine's sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, including Crimea, and the charter dedicates Washington's support to Kyiv's aspirations for membership in European institutions." and the Atlantic.

After the signing of the agreement, American, British and Western reports and news in general continued about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and its intelligence services competed in issuing daily statements about an imminent Russian invasion, until it was actually achieved on February 24.

The tone of the US-Ukraine Partnership Charter is no different from the tone US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi spoke to Taiwan leaders two days ago, during her 18-hour visit to Taipei, declaring during a ceremony held at the presidential residence that “the solidarity of the United States with Taiwan is crucial ".

Pelosi said - at a later press conference - that there is "a struggle between authoritarianism and democracy in the world" at the moment, adding that one of the goals of the trip is "to show the world the success of the people of Taiwan, and the courage to change their country to become more democratic."

China expressed unprecedented anger at Pelosi's unprecedented visit, and Beijing considered it "provocative" and "playing with fire", stressing that it was not a unilateral act by the Democratic Representative.

"The argument that a member of Congress can take such trips without the approval of the White House is a joke," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.

The visit went ahead, and its consequences remain open to what will be revealed in the coming days in terms of the political, military, and economic cost calculations, and the worst scenarios involved in China's annexation of the island by force, in another war, such as the one that Russia launched against Ukraine.

A Chinese coast guard ship sails at the nearest point of mainland China to the island of Taiwan (Reuters)

strategic ambiguity

Are signs of a new war looming on the horizon, similar to the one that Russia is waging against Ukraine?

Is this what the administration of US President Joe Biden wants?

Will his administration abandon the "strategic ambiguity" toward China that Washington has pursued for decades, and means ensuring that Beijing or Taipei "unsure" of US participation in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait?

The strategy of “strategic ambiguity” pursued by the US administrations after recognizing China and establishing diplomatic relations with it in early 1979 succeeded in alleviating the risk of Washington falling into a war with China on Taiwan, but the success of “strategic ambiguity” was also supported by the fact that most of the time since In 1979, China did not possess the military capabilities to coerce Taiwan - directly or indirectly - to return to the bosom of the Chinese mainland.

Some US administrations have come closer than others to exiting that strategy.

In April 2001, President George W. Bush, after deciding to approve a $5 billion arms sale to Taiwan, including submarines and destroyers, asserted that the United States would do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan.

However, Bush reversed this position, and sought to discourage Taiwanese moves toward an independence referendum in order to pursue greater engagement with Beijing.

Pelosi's recent statements in Taipei complement what President Joe Biden made during his visit to Japan, when he announced his country's readiness to intervene militarily to protect Taiwan in the event of an attack by China, and he had previously expressed his hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin would push The price of his invasion of Ukraine, to show China what it would face if it invaded Taiwan.

comparisons

Ukraine and Taiwan are located thousands of miles from the United States, but they are very close to the two major powers in Eurasia, Russia and China.

Despite the many differences between Ukraine and Taiwan, Washington regards them as "democracies" that live near larger authoritarian neighbours, with outdated territorial designs and similar strategic dilemmas.

While Ukraine is an independent state and a member of the United Nations, the entire international community - including the United States itself - is unanimously agreed that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the People's Republic of China, and the peaceful reunification of the island of Taiwan with the mainland is part of the President's "China Dream" Chinese Xi Jinping.

Ping declared that "peaceful reunification is more in line with the general interest of the Chinese nation, including the compatriots of Taiwan," and at the same time warned against underestimating his people's will, ability and determination to "defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity," considering that "the historic mission of reunification The complete unification of the motherland must be achieved, and certainly will be achieved," he also warned against "external interference" and stressed that the issue was "purely an internal Chinese issue."

"Taiwan is not Ukraine. Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China. This is an indisputable legal and historical fact," asserts Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying. These convictions suggest that Beijing assumes that global support for Taiwan will be less enthusiastic and vocal than it was. As for Ukraine, given that few countries have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and a number of them even lack strong informal relations with the island.

Russia's success in benefiting from its economic relations with some countries to keep it neutral is also a source of reassurance for China, given that its economic influence - much greater than that of Russia - may prevent Taiwan from receiving support from many countries.

Despite this, analysts see it as a mistake to assume that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would in any way precipitate China's desire for union with Taiwan, and their argument is that Chinese leaders' calculations about the possible use of force against Taiwan are political decisions, which will not affect it. Moscow's actions.

The Chinese army ranks second in the list of the most powerful armies in the world for 2022 (European-Archives)

accounts

In addition to the above considerations, Western analysts say that Chinese officials realize that the current attack on Taiwan will raise Western fears that Beijing and Moscow together will form an axis after they have begun to work in concert with each other, which will increase the possibility of direct intervention by the United States and its allies.

Considering that the United States has built an alliance of countries - including a number of the largest economies in the world - with the aim of imposing strict sanctions on Russia, China is watching with interest in search of evidence of the decline in the influence of the United States, because any cracks in this alliance will be good news for Beijing, which noted Some close US partners, such as India, have not imposed sanctions on Russia, nor have they strongly condemned its invasion of Ukraine.

As for Western sanctions on Russia, they are the subject of careful study by China, and it is likely that Beijing will work to accelerate the domestic and global “double-trading” strategy that is represented in seeking to promote exports, at a time when it encourages stronger domestic demand, in an attempt to increase the dependence of countries economically on China and reduce its dependence on other countries.

China will also try to produce technologies of critical importance such as semiconductors, reduce its dependence on the dollar and the financial system of the United States, and support an alternative system to the dollar-based international payment system (SWIFT), and thus spare China the effects of sanctions, and make any sanctions that Western countries can impose on To deter it from invading Taiwan or to punish it for that invasion, Beijing is doing more harm to the West than to China.

On the military front, China's army - which bears the name of the Chinese "People's Liberation Army" - ranks second among the list of the most powerful armies in the world in 2022, an arrangement that was occupied by the Russian army before.

China's progress is due to devoting its efforts to developing naval, air and land warfare capabilities, by relying mainly on local resources, which is likely to become China's main military opponent if it continues in this direction, according to a report by the Global Fire Power Institute. Military Specialist.

The Chinese president and his country's military leaders are watching the course of the Russian war on Ukraine very carefully, looking for lessons to learn in the event of a conflict with Taiwan, and the most important lesson is that the United States will not intervene directly against an opponent armed with nuclear weapons, and that Russia's nuclear arsenal deterred the United States from interfering Thus, Chinese strategists believe that this confirms the correctness of Beijing's decision to increase its nuclear arsenal, which the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) recently expected will reach at least 1,000 warheads within a decade.